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US Oil Supply - August 14

Source: OPEC 9/6/2014, Location: North America

US production is forecast to average 12.30 mb/d in 2014, indicating growth of 1.12 mb/d over the previous year, the highest among all non-OPEC countries, with an upward revision of 40 tb/d from the previous MOMR. This revision was incorporated to adjust for updated production data from 1H14. The preliminary four-week average of July’s oil production indicates that crude oil output has already passed 8.5 mb/d. This upward revision is mainly supported by strong tight oil output. North Dakota and Texas crude oil production achieved a new record high in May as output reached 1,040 tb/d and 3,016 tb/d, respectively. Nevertheless, US crude oil production and total liquids supply saw a decline in May from the previous month by 36 tb/d and 124 tb/d, to average 8.36 mb/d and 12.44 mb/d, respectively, mainly from the Gulf of Mexico (GOM). Moreover, the total share of crude from Texas and North Dakota (mostly tight oil) reached 48% of total US crude production in May 2014, but the annual share of growth decreased from 7% in 2011 to 4% in 2013, dropping to only 1% in 1H14. According to released EIA data, US crude oil exports reached 0.29 mb/d in May, the highest levels seen since April 1999. More than 91% of this volume was exported to Canada. The US does not allow export of its own oil with few exceptions, such as barrels heading to Canada and the re-export of foreign oil. In the GOM, a number of oil fields including Jack/St. Malo, Mars B, Lucius, Tubular Bells, Cardamom and Julia with a total production capacity of 0.38 mb/d, were under development until July 2014, but production has not started yet. Oil production in Alaska continued to decline in 2014 to average 0.52 mb/d and it is expected to decline steadily in near term, while new oil from GOM projects under development will compensate for this reduction. On a quarterly basis, US oil supply is seen to average 11.94 mb/d, 12.50 mb/d, 12.29 mb/d and 12.45 mb/d, respectively.

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