Stock Movements - September 2014

Source: OPEC_RP140911 9/10/2014, Location: Europe

OECD commercial oil stocks rose by around 20.0 mb to stand at 2,690 mb in July, but remained 37.0 mb below the five-year average. Crude indicated a surplus of 22.2 mb, while product stocks showed a deficit of 59 mb. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks rose slightly by 0.2 days in July, compared to the previous month, to stand at 58.2 days, some 0.5 days lower than the five-year average. Preliminary data for August show that US total commercial oil stocks increased by 3.7 mb, reversing the drop of last month to stand at 1,124.4 mb, the highest level since September 2013. At this level, inventories were 10.0 mb or 0.9% above the latest five-year average but remained in line with the same period a year ago. Within the components, product stocks saw a build of 9.8 mb, while crude witnessed a stock draw of 6.0 mb. The latest information for July showed that Chinese total oil commercial inventories rose by 11.7 mb to stand at 407.3 mb. Chinese inventories were 35 mb above this time last year. Within the components, commercial crude rose by 14.3 mb, while product inventories fell by 2.6 mb.

OECD
Preliminary data for July shows that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 19.8 mb, accumulating more than 124 mb since the beginning of this year. At 2,690 mb, inventories were around 17.4 mb higher than the same time a year ago and 37 mb less than the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude commercial stocks were down by 8.8 mb in July, while product inventories rose by 28.6 mb. At 1,312 mb, OECD crude commercial stocks were 36.3 mb above the same time a year earlier and 22.2 mb higher than the latest five-year average. Despite the stock draw in July, crude commercial stocks in the OECD remained comfortable due mainly to the ongoing rise in non-OPEC supply and relatively weaker demand in OECD countries.

On the product side, the build in July put OECD product inventories at 1,378 mb, driven by higher refinery outputs, especially in the US. At this level, OECD product stocks showed a deficit of 59.0 mb compared to the seasonal norm and 19.0 mb below the same time a year ago. Middle distillates accounted for the total of the deficit with the five-year average, standing nearly 60 mb below the seasonal norm. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks rose slightly by 0.2 days in July from the previous month to stand at 58.2 days. This is around 0.5 days lower than the latest five-year average but indicated a surplus of 0.2 days over the same month a year earlier. OECD Americas’ forward cover was 0.4 days less than the historical average at 57.0 days in July, and OECD Asia Pacific stood at 0.2 days below the seasonal average to finish the month at 49.7 days. Meanwhile, OECD Europe indicated a surplus of 0.5 days, averaging 65.8 days in July. In July, commercial stocks in OECD Americas fell by 2.1 mb following a build over the last five months and finished July at 1,390 mb. At this level, inventories were around 17.1 mb above the seasonal norm and stood 11.8 mb above the same time one year ago. Within the components, the total build came from products as crude witnessed draws. At the end of July, crude commercial oil stocks in OECD Americas fell by 18.3 mb to stand at 675 mb but still represented a surplus of 25.7 mb above the latest five-year average. However, they remained 1.5 mb lower than the same time a year ago. The drop in crude commercial stocks came mainly from a major increase in US crude runs, reaching 16.6 mb/d.

In contrast, OECD Americas’ product stocks rose by 16.2 mb in July for the fourth consecutive month to stand at 714 mb, a surplus of 1.4 mb over the seasonal norm and 6.9 mb above the same time one year ago. The build in product stocks came mainly from high US refinery output combined with relatively lower demand, but a further build was limited by higher exports.

OECD Europe’s commercial stocks rose by 21.9 mb, reversing the drop of last month to stand at 907 mb. At this level, OECD Europe’s commercial stocks stood at 36.0 mb below the seasonal norm, but 19.2 mb above a year ago at the same time. Within the components, crude and product stocks rose by 14.3 mb and 7.6 mb, respectively.

At 405 mb, OECD Europe’s commercial crude stocks stood at 14.2 mb above the five-year average and indicated a surplus of 33.0 mb over the same period a year ago. European crude stocks were at a comfortable level with crude inventories up by more than 30.0 mb since May as a result of higher supply. This upward trend also underlies the contango structure of ICE Brent, encouraging refiners to stock more crude oil.

OECD Europe’s commercial product stocks also rose by 7.6 mb in July following a drop of 5.8 mb in June. At 501 mb. OECD Europe’s commercial product inventories showed a deficit of 50.2 mb below the seasonal norm and stood 13.8 mb lower than the same time a year ago. Ongoing weaker demand in Europe contributed to the build in OECD Europe product stocks.

OECD Asia Pacific commercial stocks remained unchanged in July to stand at 394 mb, which was 13.7 mb below the same period a year ago and 18.0 mb lower than the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude commercial stocks fell by 4.8 mb, while product stocks rose by the same amount. Crude inventories ended the month of July at 232 mb and stood 1.6 mb below a year ago and 7.7 mb less than the seasonal norm. OECD Asia Pacific’s total product inventories ended July at 162 mb, indicating a deficit of 12.1 mb compared with a year ago and 10.3 mb below the seasonal norm.

EU plus Norway
Preliminary data for July shows that European stocks rose by 21.9 mb, reversing the fall of last month to stand at 1073.4 mb. Despite this build, they stood at 4.8 mb or 0.4% lower than the same time a year ago and 25.0 mb or 2.3% below the latest five-year average. The total stock build came from both crude and products as they increased by 14.3 mb and 7.6 mb, respectively.

European crude inventories rose in July to end the month at 482.7 mb, leaving them at an almost four-year high. With this stock build, crude inventories stood at 16.6 mb or 3.6% above the same period last year and were 15.8 mb or 3.4% above the latest five-year average. The build came mainly from growing crude supplies in the Atlantic Basin as well as some improvement in exports from Libya. However, a further build was limited by higher crude runs, which rose by 430,000 b/d from the previous month to stand at 9.86 mb/d. At this level, crude throughputs were nearly 650,000 b/d lower than the same period last year. In July, refiners’ utilization rates were around 77.0%, 3.0 percentage points (pp) lower than during the same month a year earlier.

OECD Europe’s product stocks also rose by 7.6 mb in June, reversing a drop of the previous month. At 590.7 mb, European stocks were still 21.4 mb or 3.5% below a year ago at the same time and 40.8 mb or 6.5% below the seasonal norm. With the exception of naphtha, all other products saw a build. Gasoline stocks rose by 2.0 mb and ended July at 108.0 mb. At this level, gasoline stocks showed a deficit of 1.3 mb or 1.2% below a year ago and 1.0 mb or 1.0% less than the seasonal norm. The build mainly reflects higher gasoline production combined with relatively weak demand in the region.

Distillate stocks also rose by 5.3 mb in July to stand at 384.8 mb. At this level, distillate stocks indicated a deficit of 6.9 mb or 1.3% compared to a year ago at the same period and 10.3 mb or 2.6% below the five-year average. The build came mainly from higher refinery output as a seasonal increase in diesel demand limited further builds in middle distillate stocks.

Residual fuel oil stocks rose by 1.3 mb in July to end the month at 74.2 mb, which was 11.8 mb or 13.8% below the same time a year ago and 22.4 mb, or 23.2%, less than the seasonal average. The build in residual fuel oil is attributed to higher output. In contrast, naphtha stocks fell by 0.9 mb in July to stand at 23.8 mb, representing a deficit of 1.3 mb, or 5.3%, compared with a year ago and 7.1 mb, or 22.9%, below the latest five-year average.

US
Preliminary data for August shows that total commercial oil stocks rose by 3.7 mb, reversing the drop of last month, to stand at 1,124.4 mb, the highest level since September 2013. At this level, they were 10.0 mb, or 0.9%, above the latest five-year average but remained in line with the same period a year ago. Within the components, product stocks saw a build of 9.8 mb, while crude witnessed a stock draw of 6.0 mb.

US commercial crude stocks fell in August for the third consecutive month to stand at 359.6 mb. Despite this stock draw, crude oil commercial stocks finished the month of August at 6.3 mb or 1.8% above the five-year average but stood 3.9 mb or 1.1% lower than the same time a year ago. The fall in crude stocks was mainly driven by robust US crude oil refinery input, averaging more than 16.4 mb/d. Refineries operated at around 92% of operable capacity in August. A further drop in US crude commercial stocks was limited by a relative increase in crude imports during August compared to the previous month. Indeed, US crude imports rose by around 170,000 b/d to stand at 7.65 mb/d in August. In contrast to the drop in national inventories, stocks at Cushing, Oklahoma, rose by 2.3 mb to 20.3 mb, but they were down almost 15 mb from the same period last year.

Total product stocks continued to rise for the fifth consecutive month, indicating a build of 9.8 mb to end August at 764.8 mb. At this level, US product stocks were 3.8 mb or 0.5% above the levels seen at the same time a year ago and showed a surplus of 3.3 mb or 0.4% above the seasonal norm. Within products, the picture was mixed.

Gasoline stocks fell by 3.9 mb in August following a drop of 5.0 mb in July. At 210.0 mb, gasoline stocks were 7.4 mb or 3.4% lower than the same period a year ago and 1.8 mb or 0.9% less than the latest five-year average. The decline came mainly from healthy implied demand, which held above 9.0 mb/d. Higher gasoline output limited a further stock draw in gasoline.

Distillate stocks also fell by 1.5 mb in August, reversing the build of last month, to stand at 123.4 mb, which was 27.0 mb or 18.0% below the five-year average and 5.3 mb or 4.1% less than the same period a year ago. The fall in middle distillate stocks reflected a combination of higher demand and relatively lower distillate production. In contrast, residual fuel oil stocks rose by 1.4 mb to end August at 36.5 mb, which is 1.3 mb or 3.7% higher than a year ago at the same period and 0.5 mb or 1.3% above the seasonal norm. Jet fuel stocks also rose by 0.4 mb to stand at 34.6 mb, which is 4.9 mb or 12.3% less than the same month a year ago and 9.2 mb or 21.0% below the latest five-year average.

Japan
In Japan, total commercial oil stocks remained unchanged in July following a build over the last three months. At 162.6 mb, Japanese oil inventories are 2.9 mb or 1.7% below a year ago and 13.0 mb or 7.4% lower than the five-year average. Within components, crude stocks rose by 4.8 mb, while product stocks fell by the same amount. Japanese commercial crude oil stocks declined in July, reversing the build of the last four months, to stand at 99.7 mb. Despite this drop, they were 3.4 mb or 3.5% above a year ago at the same time, but they still remained 3.4 mb or 3.3% below the seasonal norm. The stock draw in crude oil was driven by higher crude runs, which rose by around 490,000 b/d, or 18.8%, to average 3.1 mb/d, nearly 9.0% lower than the previous year at the same time. Higher crude oil imports limited a further drop in crude oil stocks. Indeed, crude oil imports rose by around 90,000 b/d or 2.9% to average 3.1 mb/d but were 11.1% less than the same period last year. Direct crude burning in power plants rose by nearly 3.8% in July compared with the previous month, averaging 132 tb/d and showing a decline of 28% over the same period a year ago.

In contrast, Japan’s total product inventories rose by 4.8 mb in July, reversing the fall of last month. At 62.8 mb, product stocks showed a deficit of 6.2 mb or 9.0% compared with the same time a year ago and remained below the five-year average by a deficit of 9.6 mb or 13.3%. The build was driven by high refinery output, which increased by almost 318,000 b/d to average 2.8 mb/d in July, but still stood at 11.9% below a year earlier during the same period. Higher product sales, which increased by 3.4% in July, limited a further build in product stocks. However, Japan’s total oil product sales in July fell 11.3% from a year earlier, making it the lowest monthly rate since 1986. All other products witnessed a stock build, with the bulk coming from distillates.

Distillate stocks also rose by 2.7 mb in July, reversing the drop of the last month. At 26.3 mb, distillate stocks were 4.8 mb or 15.5% below the same period a year ago and 5.7 mb or 17.9% lower than the seasonal average. All distillate components experienced a build in July. Jet fuel inventories rose by 14.6% on the back of higher production, which increased by almost 19% in July, compared to the previous month. Kerosene stocks increased by 14.6%, driven by higher output and lower kerosene sales. Gasoil inventories went up by 7.0% on the back of a 26% increase in production.

Gasoline stocks rose by 0.2 mb in July, reversing the fall of the last two months, to stand at 11.0 mb, which is 1.8 mb or 14% less than the same time the previous year and 2.0 mb or 15.6.% below the five-year average. Higher gasoline output, which rose by 16%, was behind the drop in gasoline stocks. Higher domestic sales limited a further drop in gasoline inventories.

Total residual fuel oil stocks rose by 1.4 mb to end the month of July at 16.1 mb, which is 1.2 mb or 8.1% above a year ago and 0.2 mb or 1.3% higher than the five-year average. Within fuel oil components, fuel oil A stocks and fuel oil B.C stocks rose by 2.3% and 13.4%, respectively. The build in residual oil was mainly driven by higher output. Naphtha stocks rose by 0.4 mb, finishing the month of July at 9.4 mb, still indicating a deficit of 0.8 mb or 8.0% compared with a year ago and 2.1 mb or 18.2% below the seasonal norm. The stock build came from higher output, which increased by more than 31%.

China
The latest information for July showed that Chinese total oil commercial inventories rose by 11.7 mb, reversing the drop of last month. At 407.3 mb, Chinese inventories were 35 mb above last year at the same time. Within the components, commercial crude rose by 14.3 mb, while product inventories fell by 2.6 mb. At 260.3 mb, crude commercial stocks represented a surplus of 18.0 mb when compared to the same period a year earlier. The build came mainly from lower crude runs, however, lower domestic crude production limited a further build in crude commercial stocks.

In contrast, total product stocks in China went down by 2.6 mb in July to stand at 147.0 mb, reversing the build of the last month. At this level, Chinese product stocks were 6.2 mb below a year ago at the same time. The fall could be attributed to lower refinery output. Within products, gasoline inventories fell by 0.7 mb to stand at 62.5 mb; kerosene stocks also fell by 1.1 mb, ending the month of July at 14.9 mb; and diesel inventories indicated a drop of 0.7 mb to stand at 69.6 mb.

Singapore and Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA)
At the end of July, product stocks in Singapore fell by 6.1 mb for the second consecutive month to stand at 40.2 mb, representing a surplus of 3.4 mb or 9.3% over the same period last year. All products experienced a drop. Light distillate stocks fell by 1.0 mb in July for the third consecutive month to stand at 9.6 mb, remaining 0.7 mb or 7.2% above the same time a year ago. Middle distillate stocks fell by 1.2 mb, reversing the build of the last three months and ending July at 11.7 mb, but remained 3.8 mb or 48.3% above a year ago during the same period. Residual fuel oil stocks also fell by 3.9 mb in July to stand 18.9 mb, which was 1.0 mb or 5.2% below the same period last year.

Product stocks in Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) rose slightly by 0.1 mb in July to stand at 35.8 mb. Product stocks in ARA stood at 7.0 mb or 24.3% above a year ago at the same time. Within products, the picture was mixed as naphtha, gasoil and jet fuel oil experienced builds, while gasoline and fuel oil saw a drop. Gasoline stocks fell by 2.9 mb to end the month of July at 6.3 mb, which is still 0.5 mb or 8.9% higher than the same period last year. Residual fuel oil fell by 0.5 mb to stand at 4.5 mb, mainly due to the relative improvement in bunker demand. In contrast, gasoil rose by 1.1 mb for the fourth consecutive month ending July at 19.5 mb, which is 5.1 mb or 35.4% higher than the same period last year. Both jet oil and naphtha stocks rose by 0.4 mb to stand at 3.3 mb and 2.2 mb, respectively. Both products were higher than a year ago at the same time.


United Kingdom >>  5/5/2021 - Afentra plc, the upstream operator focused on opportunities in Africa, has been launched with a clear mandate to look at opportunities to invest in th...
United States >>  4/23/2021 - Dear Electric Reliability Council of Texas Board of Directors, Dear Public Utility Commission of Texas,
The purpose of this letter is to outlin...


United States >>  4/19/2021 - - New clean energy source for heating, electricity, transportation and manufacturing
- First pilot project underway in Utah; additional pilot pr...

United Kingdom >>  4/15/2021 - Clean Power Capital Corp. is pleased to announce that it has entered into a definite agreement to make an investment in FusionOne Energy Corp. (“Fusio...

Saudi Arabia >>  4/9/2021 - Aramco has signed a deal with a consortium led by EIG Global Energy Partners (“EIG”), one of the world’s leading energy infrastructure investors, to o...
Iran >>  4/20/2015 - Two British companies are gathering information about how to invest in Iran, managing-director of Iran Industries Investment Company said. ...

Related Categories: Accounting, Statistics  Acquisitions and Divestitures  Asset Portfolio Management  Economics/Financial Analysis  General  Industrial Development  Insurance  Investment  Mergers and Acquisitions  Risk Management 

Related Articles: Accounting, Statistics  Acquisitions and Divestitures  Asset Portfolio Management  Economics/Financial Analysis  General  Industrial Development  Insurance  Investment  Mergers and Acquisitions  Risk Management 


Gulf Oil and Gas
Copyright © 2021 Universal Solutions All rights reserved. - Terms of Service - Privacy Policy.