Balance of Supply and Demand - December 14

Source: OPEC_RP141212 12/11/2014, Location: Europe

Demand for OPEC crude in 2014 was revised down by 0.1 mb/d from the previous report to stand at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.0 mb/d lower than the 2013 level. In 2015, demand for OPEC crude was revised down by 0.3 mb/d to stand at 28.9 mb/d, representing a decline of 0.4 mb from the estimated 2014 level.

Estimate for 2014
Demand for OPEC crude in 2014 was revised down by 0.1 mb/d from the previous report, reflecting the upward adjustment of non-OPEC supply as well as the downward revision in global demand. The second and fourth quarters were revised down by 0.1 mb/d. The third quarter was revised down by 0.2 mb/d, while the first quarter remained unchanged. Demand for OPEC crude is estimated at 29.4 mb/d in 2014, representing a decrease of 1.0 mb/d from last year’s level. The first and second quarters are estimated to show declines of 0.9 mb/d and 1.7 mb/d, respectively, versus the same period last year. The third quarter is estimated to decline by 0.8 mb/d, while the fourth quarter is expected to fall by 0.4 mb/d when compared to the same quarter last year.

Forecast for 2015
Demand for OPEC crude in 2015 was also revised down by 0.3 mb/d to stand at 28.9 mb/d, which is 0.4 mb/d less than the estimated level for 2014. All the quarters were revised down. This downward revision reflects the upward adjustment of non- OPEC supply as well as the downward revision in global demand. The first and third quarters are expected to decline by 0.5 mb/d when compared to the same period last year. The second and fourth quarters are projected to see a contraction of 0.3 mb/d and 0.4 mb/d, respectively.


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