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Latin America Oil Supply in December 2014

Source: OPEC 12/16/2014, Location: South America

Latin America’s oil supply is estimated to increase by 0.23 mb/d to average 5.01 mb/d in 2014, with an upward revision of 30 tb/d from the previous MOMR. Argentina’s production is expected to average 0.66 mb/d in 2014, a drop of 10 tb/d from the previous year.

Colombia’s production is estimated to decrease by 20 tb/d in 2014 to average 1.01 mb/d, unchanged from the previous MOMR. On a quarterly basis, Colombia’s production in the current year averaged 1.02 mb/d, 0.99 mb/d, 1.01 mb/d and 1.02 mb/d, respectively.

During the first three quarters of 2014, Latin America’s supply increased by 0.20 mb/d compared with the previous year to average 4.76 mb/d. On a quarterly basis, Latin America’s supply in 2014 is expected to average 4.86 mb/d, 4.92 mb/d, 5.10 mb/d and 5.14 mb/d, respectively.

Brazil’s liquids production is projected to increase by 0.25 mb/d in 2014 to average 2.90 mb/d, including biofuels, indicating an upward revision of 10 tb/d from the previous MOMR. This revision was adjusted for updated production data in the third quarter as well as early indications of fourth quarter output. Brazil’s supply in the third quarter reached 2.98 mb/d, an increase of 0.34 mb/d compared with the same quarter a year earlier, which was also higher by 0.14 mb/d, q-o-q. Crude and NGLs’ output in October was at a record high of 2.49 mb/d, up m-o-m for the ninth straight month and 0.33 mb/d higher y-o-y.

Continuous growth was led by pre-salt output, which reached another record high of 0.64 mb/d on 28 October due to the addition of 10 new wells and higher well productivity, as well as the ramp-up of five key platforms and the startup of the 0.15 mb/d FPSO Mangaratiba by mid-month. Despite recent declines in oil prices, no near-term slowdown is expected in pre-salt output, given the new platforms and continuous wells being brought online by Petrobras, such as the 0.15 mb/d FPSO Ilhabela, which started up in November. But a sustained low oil price may force Petrobras to scale back capital expenditure in 2015, which would impact growth rates in 2H15. Output from offshore pre?salt reservoirs has climbed to 740,000 b/d, more than a quarter of Brazil’s crude production.

Regarding biofuels production, the ongoing effects of drought on ethanol production in Brazil could impact recent crude oil production growth in 2015. Total biofuels output in the last ten months of 2014 was registered at 0.5 mb/d. On a quarterly basis, Brazil’s supply in 2013 is expected to average 2.73 mb/d, 2.84 mb/d, 2.98 mb/d and 3.03 mb/d, respectively.

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