Balance of Supply and Demand

Source: OPEC_RP150112 1/15/2015, Location: Europe

Demand for OPEC crude in 2014 was revised down by 0.2 mb/d from the previous report to stand at 29.1 mb/d, which is 1.2 mb/d lower than the 2013 level. In 2015, demand for OPEC crude was also revised down by 0.1 mb/d to stand at 28.8 mb/d, representing a decline of 0.3 mb from the estimated 2014 level.

Estimate for 2014
Demand for OPEC crude for 2014 was revised down by 0.2 mb/d from the previous report, mainly reflecting an upward adjustment to non-OPEC supply. The first and second quarters were revised down by 0.1 mb/d and 0.2 mb/d, respectively, while the third and the fourth quarters were revised down by 0.4 mb/d each. Demand for OPEC crude is estimated to be 29.1 mb/d in 2014, representing a decrease of 1.2 mb/d from the 2013 level. The first and the second quarters are estimated to show a decline of 1.0 mb/d and 1.9 mb/d, respectively, versus the same period one year ago. The third quarter is estimated to decline by 1.2 mb/d while the fourth quarter is expected to fall by 0.7 mb/d compared with the same quarter in 2013.

Forecast for 2015
The demand for OPEC crude in 2015 was also revised down by 0.1 mb/d to stand at 28.8 mb/d, which is 0.3 mb/d less than the estimated 2014 level. The first and second quarter were revised down by 0.6 mb/d and 0.3 mb/d, respectively. In contrast, the fourth quarter was revised up by 0.3 mb/d. The third quarter remained unchanged compared with the previous report. The first and second quarters were expected to decline by 1.0 mb/d and 0.5 mb/d, respectively, compared with the same period one year earlier. The third quarter is projected to see negative growth of 0.1 mb/d, while the fourth quarter is expected to increase by 0.3 mb/d.


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