Balance of Supply and Demand

Source: OPEC_RP150212 2/9/2015, Location: Europe

Demand for OPEC crude in 2014 remained unchanged from the previous report to stand at 29.1 mb/d, which is 1.2 mb/d lower than the 2013 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2015 was revised up by 0.4 mb/d to average 29.2 mb/d, 0.1 mb/d higher than a year earlier.

Estimate for 2014
Demand for OPEC crude for 2014 remained unchanged from the previous report to stand at 29.1 mb/d, which represents a decrease of around 1.2 mb/d compared to the previous year. The 1Q and the 2Q of 2014 are estimated to show a respective decline of 1 mb/d and 1.9 mb/d versus the same period a year earlier. The 3Q and 4Q are also estimated to show respective declines of 1.2 mb/d and 0.8 mb/d.

Forecast for 2015
Demand for OPEC crude in 2015 was revised up by 0.4 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment. This was driven mainly by a downward adjustment in non-OPEC supply. The 1Q and the 2Q of 2015 were revised up by 0.2 mb/d and 0.3 mb/d, respectively, from last month’s assessment. The 2H15 has much higher upward revisions with the 3Q and 4Q revised up by 0.6 mb/d and 0.7 mb/d, respectively. Demand for OPEC crude is projected at 29.2 mb/d for 2015, representing an increase of 0.1 mb/d over the previous year’s level. The 1Q and 2Q of 2015 are expected to decline by 0.9 mb/d and 0.2 mb/d, respectively, compared to the same period last year. In contrast, the 3Q and 4Q are projected to increase by 0.4 mb/d and 1.0 mb/d, respectively, over the same period a year earlier.


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