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World Oil Supply - Mar 07

Source: OPEC_RP070301 3/15/2007, Location: Europe

Estimate for 2006
Non-OPEC oil supply is estimated to average 49.46 mb/d in 2006, an increase of 0.52 mb/d over 2005 and a downward revision of 17,000 b/d versus the last assessment. A 67,000 b/d downward revision to the fourth quarter of 2006 was behind the lower level for the year.

Forecast for 2007
Non-OPEC oil supply is expected to average 50.64 mb/d in 2007, an increase of 1.18 mb/d over 2006 and a downward revision of 46,000 b/d versus the last assessment. On a quarterly basis, non-OPEC supply is expected to average 50.3 mb/d, 50.3 mb/d, 50.5 mb/d, and 51.5 respectively. The revision to the outlook is principally due to the downward revision to the fourth quarter 2006 baseline of around 67,000 b/d and the receipt of actual data for some countries. Most of the revisions were made in the second and fourth quarters, with lower amounts in the other two quarters.

OECD
Total OECD oil supply is expected to average 20.35 mb/d, 38,000 b/d lower than the last assessment, but an increase of 0.19 mb/d over the 2006 figure. On a quarterly basis, OECD oil supply is expected to average 20.37 mb/d, 20.25 mb/d, 20.14 mb/d, and 20.65 mb/d respectively.
February data puts OECD oil supply at 20.41 mb/d, an increase of 20,000 b/d over the January figure.

USA
Oil supply in the USA is expected to average 7.55 mb/d in 2007. This represents an increase of 0.16 mb/d versus last year and a downward revision of 42,000 b/d versus last month. Revisions made to 4Q07, including the downward revision of 34,000 b/d to the baseline (4Q06), were implemented for all quarters in 2007.
The Genghis Khan field is expected to start up in the 3Q07 and ramp up in the 4Q07, also the Atlantis South was delayed to late 2007 and its effect is expected to affect the 2008 outlook. Neptune will start up in the 4Q07 and some other small satellite fields may add some barrels to the 2007 US outlook. The February figure was 7.61 mb/d, around 20,000 b/d over the January figure.

Mexico and Canada
The outlook for Mexico has been revised down slightly by around 5,000 b/d which represents the baseline revision from 4Q06. Total Mexican oil supply is expected to average 3.6 mb/d in 2007; the third quarter at 3.7 mb/d represents the best performance of the year due to the expected increase in projects in the KMZ complex but according to latest news this could be shifted to 2Q07 or even earlier and thus requires further monitoring. Last month’s production of 3.56 mb/d was almost the same level as in January.

Canadian oil supply is expected to average 3.3 mb/d in 2007, an increase of 0.14 mb/d over 2006 and around 12,000 b/d higher than last month’s assessment. Upward revisions were made to the first, third and fourth quarters, while the second quarter was revised down due to some shifting in the maintenance schedules in the database. The Hibernia crude field of 0.18 mb/d, which had been shut down on 15 February due to technical problems, returned to operations ahead of schedule on 7 March. The February figures showed a level of around 3.25 mb/d or 10,000 b/d over the January level.

Western Europe
Oil supply in OECD Europe is expected to average 5.2 mb/d in 2007, a drop of 0.15 mb/d from the 2006 figure but practically the same as last month’s assessment. On a quarterly basis, total oil supply is expected to average 5.3 mb/d, 5.2 mb/d, 5.0 mb/d, and 5.3 mb/d respectively.

Norwegian oil supply is expected to average 2.7 mb/d in 2007, 0.1 mb/d less than last year and a downward revision of 5,000 b/d versus last month. The contributions of the Vilje, Alveheim and Volve projects are expected to offset the expected decline in other fields. February figures show a level of around 2.79 mb/unchanged from the January level.

UK oil supply is expected to average 1.65 mb/d, a drop of 40,000 b/d versus last year but a 40,000 b/d increase from last month’s assessment. The February production stood at 1.7 mb/d

Oil supply in Denmark is expected to average 0.31 mb/d, around 30,000 b/d below the 2006 level and unchanged from last month’s assessment. In February, Denmark produced around 0.34 mb/d unchanged from the January production level.

Asia Pacific
Oil supply in the OECD Asia Pacific region is expected to average 0.67 mb/d in 2007, representing growth of 0.11 mb/d compared to last year. On a quarterly basis, total oil supply is expected to average 0.63 mb/d, 0.64 mb/d, 0.71 mb/d and 0.70 mb/d respectively. Shut-downs in North-Western Australia of the Carnavon Basin due to cyclone activity (George and Jacob) affected the first-quarter figure down by around 10,000 b/d. The total shut-down was around 170,000 b/d for around one week.

Developing Countries
Oil supply in Developing Countries (DCs) is expected to average 11.84 mb/d in 2007, an increase of 0.27 mb/d over 2006 and 15,000 b/d less than last month’s figure. On a quarterly basis, total oil supply in DCs is expected to average 11.67 mb/d, 11.66 mb/d, 11.86 mb/d and 12.10 mb/d respectively. Downward revisions to the base of 13,000 b/d and slight adjustments in both directions in Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador and Mauritania account for the bulk of the revision.

Downward revisions made to the outlook of Malaysia (-8,000 b/d) and Brazil (-6,000 b/d) have been offset by upward revisions to Africa Others (from Mauritania the Chinguetti field) by 6,000 b/d and Syria by 2,000 b/d. Other revisions were due to the changes in the baseline.

FSU, Other Regions
Oil supply in the FSU is expected to average 12.7 mb/d, an increase of 0.68 b/d compared to 2006, 2,000 b/d less than last month. Minor downward revisions were made to 4Q07 for Kazakhstan. China was revised up slightly by 9,000 b/d. On a quarterly basis, total oil supply in the FSU is expected to average 12.48 mb/d, 12.66 mb/d, 12.74 mb/d and 12.90 mb/d respectively. Other Europe remains unchanged at 0.15 mb/d compared with the 2006 figure.

Russia
Russian oil supply is expected to average 9.97 mb/d in 2007, an increase of 0.32 mb/d versus 2006 and unchanged from last month’s estimate. Crude export tariffs are to witness another cut by April down by 13% to $21.37/b, another incentive for producers to increase exports.

Caspian
Azeri oil supply is expected to average 0.91 mb/d in 2007, representing an increase of 0.28 mb/d over last year. The latest production estimate puts total oil supply at 0.78 mb/d in February.

Kazak oil production is expected to average 1.40 mb/d in 2007, an increase of 0.1 mb/d over last year and down 2,000 b/d from last month. Data for February puts Kazak oil supply at 1.38 mb/d, around 70,000 b/d above the January figure.

China
China’s total oil supply is expected to average 3.71 mb/d in 2007, an increase of 30,000 b/d over last year and an upward revision of 9,000 b/d from last month’s report. Figures for February averaged 3.77 mb/d. Growth of around 28,000 b/d in Changqing oil already started to come on stream in February. Minor upward revisions to the annual average contributed by the removal of production constraints from the Zhao Dong field.

OPEC natural gas liquids and non-conventional oils
In 2006, OPEC NGLs and non-conventional oils averaged 4.27 mb/d, an increase of 0.22 mb/d over the previous year. In 2007, OPEC NGLs are expected to grow by 0.17 mb/d to average 4.44 mb/d.

OPEC crude oil production
OPEC crude output averaged 29.96 mb/d in February Total crude oil production averaged 29.96 mb/d in February, almost unchanged from January, according to secondary sources. OPEC-10 production averaged 26.44 mb/d, or 0.3 mb/d lower than in January. Iraq’s oil production averaged 1.99 mb/d, around 0.29 mb/d above the January figure, and Angola’s oil production stands at 1.53 mb/d. Total OPEC production in 2006 was 30.91 mb/d.

World Oil Supply
Figures for the month of February indicate that world oil supply averaged 84.65 mb/d. The main factors affecting supply have been discussed in previous sections. The estimate is based on preliminary data for non-OPEC supply, estimates for OPEC NGLs and OPEC crude production from secondary sources. FSU net exports of crude and products
Total FSU net oil exports averaged 8.21 mb/d in 2006, an increase of 0.52 mb/d over the previous year. In 2007, total net oil exports are expected to average 8.84 mb/d or 0.62 mb/d over 2006. The forecast has been revised down slightly from the last assessment.

Current trends
Actual figures for the month of January indicate that total crude exports from the FSU amounted to 6.14 mb/d, around 118,000 b/d above the December figures. Russian pipeline exports increased by around 83,000 b/d, all of which was transported by the Black Sea pipeline. This increase was partially offset by Baltic and Druzhba pipelines. Russian rail and Russian Far–East added around 133,000 b/d, partially offset by the pipeline which declined by around 35,000 b/d from the December 2006 figure. However, the plan for building a new pipeline of 1 mb/d capacity to bypass Belarus is waiting for government approval.

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