Latin America Oil Demand in February 2015

In Argentina, November 2014 was another month of positive oil demand growth with all products showing increases with the exception of fuel oil. Total product demand grew by around 10 tb/d, which amounted to more than 1% y-o-y. LPG and jet/kerosene were the largest contributors to oil demand growth, with LPG rising by almost 11% and jet/kerosene increasing by around 6%. With data up to November 2014, y-t-d data show a similar pattern of consumption in the country; while total consumption growth in the country was almost flat, LPG consumption grew the most, rising by more than 21% as compared to the same period in 2013. Jet/kerosene also rose by more than 6% y-o-y. Other products gasoline, diesel oil, fuel oil and “other products” were flat to declining.

Looking forward, the risks for 2015 are currently pointing more towards likely downward revisions as economic activity in Brazil is predicted to only slightly improve. On the other hand, the presence of lower oil prices in addition to any sudden changes in weather conditions should limit the impact.

Latin American oil demand is anticipated to grow by 0.20 mb/d in 2014. During 2015, oil demand growth is forecast to increase by 0.20 mb/d, similar to the levels seen in 2014.