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US Oil Supply in February 2015

Source: OPEC 3/9/2015, Location: North America

Actual US oil supply was pegged at 13.36 mb/d in November, down m-o-m by 40 tb/d, with crude output lower by 31 tb/d at 9.02 mb/d; it dropped in most states, with the exception of Texas and North Dakota, although a bigger drop of 62 tb/d occurred due to unexpected production disruption in the Gulf of Mexico. Nevertheless, oil production in Alaska increased by 17 tb/d in November. NGL production dropped by 53 tb/d m-o-m to a four-month low of 3.07 mb/d, in line with the view that NGL production would be the first to be impacted by a fall in rigs, with some rigs even moving back to dry gas plays.

Total US liquids supply includes 5.1 mb/d of conventional crude oil, of which 3.9 mb/d is tight crude. In the following chart the breakdown of all liquid components produced in November is shown.

On a quarterly basis , 4Q14 was revised down by 10 tb/d to 13.40 mb/d. Figures for the first three quarters were also revised down, despite a small upward revision to 2013 supply estimates, in addition to other factors in 2014. Finally, total US oil supply is estimated to increase by 1.59 mb/d to average 12.82 mb/d in 2014, representing a downward revision of 40 tb/d from the previous monthly report. Despite an annual increase in US liquids production, mainly from unconventional sources, namely tight crude and unconventional NGLs, year-on-year production growth declined over the period.

US oil production in 2014 is seen to stand at 11.95 mb/d, 12.79 mb/d, 13.12 mb/d and 13.40 mb/d on a quarterly basis.

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