Estimate for 2006
Non-OPEC oil supply is estimated to average 49.46 mb/d in 2006, an increase of 0.48 mb/d over 2005 and a net downward revision of 42,000 b/d versus the previous assessment. The downward revision was the net result of revising up the 2005 figure by around 46,000 b/d and the 2006 figure byaround 4,000 b/d.
Revisions to the 2006 estimate, other historical
The 2005 quarterly figures were revised in both directionns due to actual data. Most of the revisions came from Total DCs which were increased by 46,000 b/d, while Other Asia was revised up 8,000 b/d, Latin America up 21,000 b/d (wich Argentina15,000 b/d higher and Ecuador up 7,000 b/d) and the Middle East up 14,000 b/d solely due to Yemen. The 2006 annual figure was also revised up slightly. The estimate for 4Q06 for the USA has been adjusted downward by 37,000 b/d. In the North Sea, minor upward revisions were made to 3Q06 and 4Q06 oil production in the UK of 12,000 b/d and 19,000 b/d respectively. In Australia the 4Q06 figure was revised down by 17,000 b/d while Other Pacific was revised up wards by 6,000 b/d. The 4Q06 estimate for Malaysia was revised up by around 18,000 b/d but no change to the annual figure due to offsetting revisions to the second and third quarters. Vietnam 4Q06 witnessed a downward revision of 15,000 b/d while Asia Others was revised upwards by 10,000 b/d. In Syria, supply was revised down on a quarterly basis by 2,000 b/d, 17,000 b/d, 23,000 b/d and 34,000 b/d respectively. Most of the above revisions were made due to actual data. As a result, the annual 2006 average estimate was revised up by around 4,000 b/d. On a regional basis, the annual downward revisions applied to North America (9,000 b/d) and the Middle East (26,000 b/d) regions were offset by upward revisions to West Europe (14,000 b/d), Other Asia (18,000 b/d), Latin America (4,000 b/d) and FSU (2,000 b/d).
Forecast for 2007
Non-OPEC oil supply is expected to average 50.72 mb/d in 2007, an increase of 1.26 mb/d over 2006 and an upward revision of 83,000 b/d versus the last assessment. On a quarterly basis, non-OPEC supply is expected to average 50.4 mb/d, 50.4 mb/d, 50.6 mb/d, and 51.5 respectively. The revision to the outlook is principally due to fourth-quarter 2006 baseline downward revision of around 17,000 b/d and receipt of actual data for some countries. Revisions were made to all quarters of 121,000 b/d, 71,000 b/d, 71,000 b/d and 69,000 b/d respectively. Reasons behind this month’s revisions will be detailed later on this chapter.
Total OECD oil supply is expected to average 20.43 mb/d, 75,000 b/d more than the last assessment and an increase of 0.26 mb/d over the 2006 figure. On a quarterly basis, OECD oil supply is expected to average 20.45 mb/d, 20.32 mb/d, 20.21 mb/d, and 20.74 mb/d respectively. March preliminary data put OECD oil supply at 20.46 mb/d, almost the same as in February. The preliminary average for the first three months stands at around 20.40 mb/d, around 49,000 b/d below the forecast first-quarter figure of 20.45 mb/d.
Oil supply in the USA is expected to average 7.55 mb/d in 2007 representing an increase of 0.17 mb/d versus last year. The 4Q06 has been revised down by 37,000 b/d which results in a 2006 annual downward revision of 9,000 b/d, with no impact on the 2007 forecast.
March preliminary data show US oil supply at 7.58 mb/d, down 42,000 b/d from February. The preliminary average for 1Q07 stands at 7.60 mb/d, which is 20,000 b/d lower than the current 1Q07 forecast.
Mexico and Canada
The outlook for Mexico has been adjusted upwards by 50,000 b/d due to actual data for the 1Q07. Total Mexican oil supply is expected to average 3.67 mb/d in 2007; increased production from projects in the KMZ complex is expected to replace the sharp decline in the giant Cantarell field; however, the situation should be closely monitored to see if the incremental production from KMZ is going to offset the Cantarell decline which is expected to fall between 200,000-300,000 b/d this year. Figures for the first two months of this year show that the decline in monthly crude oil production has been totally offset by NGL production to stand at 3.56 mb/d for both months — extending the figure for March will result in an 1Q07 average of 3.56 mb/d. Performance is expected to improve starting in the second quarter onwards due to new production to be put onstream from the KMZ complex.
Canadian oil supply is expected to average 3.3 mb/d in 2007, representing an increase of 0.14 mb/d over 2006. Most of this increase is expected to come from synthetic crude projects to be put onstream over the course of the year.
Oil supply in OECD Europe is expected to average 5.25 mb/d in 2007, representing a drop of 0.12 mb/d from the 2006 figure and an upward revision of 49,000 b/d from last month’s assessment. The revision is mainly due a change in the UK base forecast of 19,000 b/d and other West Europe (mostly from Netherlands by around 20,000b/d). On a quarterly basis, total oil supply is expected to average 5.37 mb/d, 5.27 mb/d, 5.04 mb/d, and 5.25 mb/d respectively.
Norwegian oil supply is expected to average 2.7 mb/d in 2007, down 0.08 mb/d from last year and broadly unchanged from last month. The February figure shows a level of around 2.79 mb/d, a better performance than the January level of 2.75 mb/d. Extending the figure to March would result in a preliminary 1Q07 average of 2.77 mb/d which is 12,000 b/d over the 1Q07 forecast. Projects Viljie, Alveheim and Volve are expected to almost fully offset the combination of decline and heavy maintenance.
UK oil supply is expected to average 1.67 mb/d, a drop of 30,000 b/d versus last year and 19,000 b/d up from last month’s assessment due to upward revisions to the base forecast. March production stands at 1.69 mb/d around 50,000 b/d less than February. Buzzard field production, which has reached a peak of 200,000 b/d, has saved the UK production from an expected sharp decline due to falling output from the mature fields.
Oil supply in Other Western Europe is expected to average 0.59 mb/d, around 30,000 b/d more than the 2006 level and 39,000 b/d higher than last month’s assessment (up 22,000 b/d in the base forecast in addition to a 17,000 b/d increase for 2007).
Oil supply in the OECD Asia Pacific region is expected to average 0.64 mb/d in 2007, representing growth of 0.08 mb/d compared to last year and down 25,000 b/d from last month’s assessment. On a quarterly basis, total oil supply is expected to average 0.61 mb/d, 0.61 mb/d, 0.68 mb/d and 0.69 mb/d respectively. Shutdowns in Northwestern Australia — which is home to the Carnavon Basin — due to cyclones activity affected the first-quarter figure down by around 11,000 b/d. The total outage was roughly 170,000 b/d for about one week. Australia’s annual average stands at 0.59 mb/d, a minor growth of 30,000 b/d over the 2006 figure and down 21,000 b/d from last month’s assessment.
Oil supply in the Developing Countries (DCs) is expected to average 11.81 mb/d in 2007, representing an increase of 0.25 mb/d over 2006, and 19,000 b/d less than last month’s figure. On a quarterly basis, total DC oil supply is expected to average 11.65 mb/d, 11.65 mb/d, 11.85 mb/d and 12.06 mb/d respectively. Downward revisions to the base in addition to more data available for some countries played a major role in revising this month’s figures. Upward revisions have been made to the outlook for Malaysia (13,000 b/d), and Other Asia (mainly for Philippines as more data become available) by 10,000 b/d, while Syria has been revised down by 34,000 b/d and Bahrain by around 8,000 b/d.
On a group basis, the Other Asia group was revised up by 23,000 b/d from the last assessment to stand at 2.74 mb/d, a growth of 0.05 mb/d over the 2006 figure, while the Middle East group was revised down by 42,000 b/d to 1.73 mb/d, a decline of 40,000 b/d from the 2006 figure, while Latin America and Africa groups stayed almost unchanged from last month’s assessment at 4.51 mb/d and 2.82 mb/d respectively which represents growth over the 2006 figures of around 80,000 b/d and 160,000 b/d.
FSU, Other Regions
Oil supply in the FSU is expected to average 12.69 mb/d, representing an increase of 0.67 b/d versus 2006, a downward revision of 8,000 b/d from last month. Minor upward revisions were made to 4Q06 for Azerbaijan, China was revised up by 32,000 b/d while other FSU was revised down by 8,000 b/d. On a quarterly basis, total oil supply in the FSU is expected to average 12.48 mb/d, 12.65 mb/d, 12.74 mb/d and 12.89 mb/d respectively. Other Europe remains unchanged at 0.15 mb/d compared with the 2006 figure.
Russian oil supply is expected to average 9.97 mb/d in 2007, an increase of 0.32 mb/d versus 2006 and unchanged versus last month’s estimate. On a quarterly basis, Russian oil supply is expected at 9.86 mb/d, 9.96 mb/d, 10.01 mb/d and 10.04 mb/d respectively. Preliminary figures for the first quarter show Russian performance very close to the forecast figure.
Azeri oil supply is expected to average 0.91 mb/d in 2007, representing an increase of 0.26 mb/d versus last year. Preliminary figures for the first quarter may average 0.85 mb/d, already 11,000 b/d over the current forecast. The quarterly forecast level now is 0.83 mb/d, 0.88 mb/d, 0.95 mb/d and 0.98 mb/d respectively.
Kazak oil production is expected to average 1.40 mb/d in 2007, representing an increase of 0.1 mb/d versus last year. Preliminary data shows that the first-quarter average may easily reach 1.35 mb/d, which is 18,000 b/d less than the current forecast of around 1.37 mb/d. The quarterly supply figures are currently expected at 1.37 mb/d, 1.40 mb/d, 1.36 mb/d and 1.46 mb/d respectively.
Total oil supply is expected to average 3.74 mb/d in 2007, representing an increase of 60,000 b/d over last year and an upward revision of 32,000 b/d versus last month’s report. The latest January figures showed that China reached the highest production level of 3.81 mb/d while the figure for February averaged 3.74 mb/d. Accordingly the 1Q07 has been revised up by 70,000 b/d to reach an average of 3.75 mb/d. The other three quarters have been revised up by 20,000 b/d each. The Changqing upgrading effect is also included in the forecast.
OPEC natural gas liquids and non-conventional oils In 2006, OPEC NGLs and non-conventional oils averaged 4.27 mb/d, representing an increase of 0.22 mb/d over the previous year. In 2007, the expected growth for OPEC NGLs is 0.17 mb/d to average 4.44 mb/d.
OPEC crude oil production
Total crude oil production averaged 30.03 mb/d in March, a gain of 37,200 b/d over February, according to secondary sources. OPEC-10 production averaged 26.37 mb/d or 66,800 b/d lower than in February. Iraq’s oil production averaged 2.05 mb/d, around 52,100 b/d over the February figure, while Angola’s oil production stands at 1.60 mb/d. Total OPEC crude production in the first quarter averaged 29.99 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Preliminary figures for March indicate that world oil supply averaged 84.94 mb/d. OPEC crude share was estimated at 35%. The estimate is based on preliminary data for non- OPEC supply, estimates forOPEC NGLs and OPEC crude production from secondary sources.
FSU net exports of crude and products
Total FSU net oil exports averaged 8.65 mb/d in 2006, an increase of 0.52 mb/d over the previous year. In 2007, total net oil exports are expected to average 8.83 mb/d representing an increase of 0.63 mb/d over 2006. The forecast has been revised down slightly from the last assessment.
Actual figures for the month of January indicate that total crude exports from the FSU were 6.62 mb/d or around 440,000 b/d over the January figure. Russian pipeline exports increased around 72,000 b/d, with gains in the Baltic and Druzhba pipelines offsetting declines in the Black Sea pipeline. The CPC pipeline increased significantly by around 173,000 b/d over the January figure.