US Stock Movements in March 2015

Preliminary data for February shows that total commercial oil stocks rose by 6.2 mb for the fourth consecutive month to stand at 1,182 mb, which is nearly 135 mb or 12.9% above the same period a year ago and 120 mb or 11.3% higher than the latest five-year average. Within the components, commercial crude inventories saw a build of 31.3 mb, while product stocks abated this build declining by 25.1 mb.

US commercial crude stocks reached another record high in January to stand at 444.4 mb, which is 71 mb or 19% above the same time last year and 84.9 mb or 23.6% above the latest five-year average. Lower crude oil refinery input contributed to this build. Refineries were running at 86.3% of operable capacity in February, 1.0 pp lower than the previous month and 0.8% lower than last year at the same time. Ongoing increases in US domestic production along with the WTI contango structure have pushed inventories to another all-time record high. Crude at Cushing, Oklahoma, have built continuously since the week ending 5 December, finishing the month of February at 49.2 mb, which is around 7.8 mb higher than the January level.

In contrast to the sharp build in US crude commercial stocks in February, total product stocks fell by 25.1 mb to end the month at 736.6 mb, which is around 64 mb or 9.5% above the levels seen at the same time a year ago and 34.8 mb or 4.9% over the seasonal norm. Within products, the picture was mixed, with the main stock draw coming from distillates, while unfinished products saw the highest build.

Distillate stocks fell by 11.5 mb in February to stand at 123.0 mb, which is 10.1 mb or 8.9% higher than the same period a year ago yet 13.6 mb or 9.9% below the five-year average. The drop in middle distillate stocks reflected lower output, which decreased by about 60,000 b/d to an average of 4.7 mb/d. An apparent high rate of demand also contributed to the drop in distillate stocks.

Gasoline stocks fell slightly by 0.6 mb in February, ending the month at 240.1 mb, which is 11.9 mb or 5.2% higher than the same period a year ago and 10.5 mb or 4.6% above the latest five-year average. The drop came mainly from lower gasoline output. Jet fuel stocks rose by 1.2 mb, ending the month of February at 39.1 mb, which is 0.9 mb or 2.3% higher than the same month a year ago yet 1.5 mb or 3.7% below the latest five-year average.

Residual fuel oil stocks rose by 4.1 mb in February to end the month at 36.9 mb, which is 0.2 mb or 0.6% higher than the same time last year yet 0.5 mb or 1.3% below the seasonal norm.