Balance of Supply and Demand

Source: OPEC_RP150412 4/16/2015, Location: Europe

Demand for OPEC crude in 2014 was revised down by 0.1 mb/d from the previous report to stand at 29.0 mb/d, which is 1.4 mb/d lower than the 2013 level. In 2015, demand for OPEC crude was revised up by 0.1 mb/d to average 29.3 mb/d, 0.3 mb/d higher than last year.

Estimate for 2014
Demand for OPEC crude in 2014 was revised down by 0.1 mb/d from the previous report to stand at 29.0 mb/d, representing a decrease of around 1.4 mb/d from the 2013 level. This downward adjustment reflects mainly an upward revision in non-OPEC supply. The first and the second quarters are estimated to show the declines of 1.0 mb/d and 1.9 mb/d, respectively, versus the same periods last year. The third and the fourth quarters showed declines of 1.3 mb/d and 1.4 mb/d, respectively.

Forecast for 2015
Demand for OPEC crude in 2015 was revised up by 0.1 mb/d from the previous month, driven mainly by the downward revision in non-OPEC supply combined with a slight upward adjustment in world oil demand. The first quarter was revised down by 0.1 mb/d, while the second and the fourth quarters experienced upward revisions of 0.1 mb/d. The third quarter saw an upward revision of 0.2 mb/d. Demand for OPEC crude is projected to be 29.3 mb/d, representing an increase of 0.3 mb/d from the estimated 2014 level. The first and the second quarters are expected to decline by 0.9 mb/d and 0.1 mb/d, respectively, compared to the same period last year. In contrast, the third and the fourth quarters are projected to increase by 0.6 mb/d and 1.6 mb/d, respectively.




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