Middle East Oil Supply in April 2015

Source: OPEC 4/16/2015, Location: Middle East

Oil production from some non-OPEC producers in the Middle East faces considerable uncertainty and high risk. Syria and Yemen are on the verge of oil fields shutting down completely. It is expected that the Middle East’s oil output in 2015 will decline by 90 tb/d to a total average of 1.25 mb/d. No growth is expected in Bahrain, Oman or Syria, and oil production is predicted to decline in Yemen by 90 tb/d to average 50 tb/d in 2015. Middle East oil output in 2015 on a quarterly basis is predicted at 1.32 mb/d, 1.25 mb/d, 1.23 mb/d and 1.22 mb/d, respectively.

Yemen is a relatively minor oil and gas producer, producing around 0.14 mb/d of crude oil last year, down from a peak of 0.44 mb/d in 2001, due to limited investment, natural declines and frequent supply disruptions. There are two main crude grades, the light sweet Marib (API 48.9, sulphur 0.07%) and the medium Masila (API 31.4, sulphur 0.54%). Amid the worsening security situation, international oil operators in Yemen’s oil projects have been halting operations since the start of the year. In January 2015, around 50 tb/d of oil production was shut down in the Shabwah province. Oil production of state-owned Safer Exploration & Production Operations Co., which produces around 30 tb/d of crude and also operates the gas fields around the country’s LNG plant is in process of shutting down. On 30 March, Total Co. shut down most of its 35 tb/d Block 10 when it evacuated expatriate staff. The other IOCs have also left Yemen, and their production was halted since the first week of April. It seems that there is only one operator left, PetroMasila, the operator of Block 14, which is pumping 30 tb/d of oil.

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