Balance of Supply and Demand

Source: OPEC_RP150512 5/12/2015, Location: Europe

Demand for OPEC crude in 2014 remained unchanged from the previous report to stand at 29.0 mb/d, 1.4 mb/d lower than the 2013 level. The demand for OPEC crude in 2015 was also revised slightly up to average 29.3 mb/d, 0.3 mb/d higher than the previous year.

Estimate for 2014
The 2014 demand for OPEC crude remained unchanged from the previous report to stand at 29.0 mb/d, representing a decrease of around 1.4 mb/d from the 2013 level. The third and the fourth quarters were revised up by 0.1 mb, while the first two quarters remained unchanged. The first and the second quarters are estimated to show a decline of 1.0 mb/d and 2.0 mb/d, respectively, versus the same period one year ago. The third and the fourth quarters showed a decline of 1.2 mb/d and 1.3 mb/d, respectively.

Forecast for 2015
Demand in 2015 for OPEC crude was revised up slightly by 60 tb/d from the previous month, driven mainly by a slight rise in world oil demand as non-OPEC supply remained almost unchanged. The first quarter was revised up by 0.1 mb/d, while the following quarters remained unchanged. Demand for OPEC crude is projected to be at 29.3 mb/d, representing an increase of 0.3 mb/d from the estimated 2014 level. The first quarter is expected to decline by 0.8 mb/d when compared with the same period one year earlier, while the third and the fourth quarters are projected to increase by 0.5 mb/d and 1.5 mb/d, respectively. The second quarter is expected to remain at the same level as in 2014.


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