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US Stock Movements - July 2015

Source: OPEC 7/26/2015, Location: North America

Preliminary data for June shows that total commercial oil stocks rose for the eighth consecutive month by 5.7 mb to stand at 1257.7 mb. At this level, stocks were 135.0 mb, or 12%, above the same period a year ago and 147.1 mb, or 13.2%, higher than the latest five-year average. Within components, commercial crude went down by 12.0 mb, while products saw a build of 17.8 mb.

US commercial crude stocks fell in June for the second consecutive month to stand at 465.4 mb. Crude commercial stocks finished the month at 81.5 mb, or 21.2%, above the same time last year, and 91.3 mb, or 24.4%, above the latest five-year average.

Higher crude oil refinery input contributed to this stock draw. Indeed, refinery runs rose 182,000 b/d to average 16.5 mb/d. Refineries were running at around 92.15% of operable capacity in June, 1.8 percentage points (pp) higher than the previous month and 4.6% above the same time last year. Crude at Cushing, Oklahoma, also saw a stock draw of a 2.6 mb in June versus May to end the month at 56.7 mb.

In contrast, total product stocks rose by 17.8 mb in June to end the month at 792.4 mb. With this stocks build, US product stocks were around 53.5 mb, or 7.2%, above the level seen at the same time a year ago and showed a surplus of 55.8 mb, or 7.6%, above the seasonal norm. Within the products, the picture was mixed, with distillates and jet fuel oil stocks both rising while gasoline and residual fuel inventories fell.

Distillate stocks rose by 3.2 mb in June, ending the month at 135.8 mb. At this level, they indicated a surplus of 14.1 mb, or 11.6%, more than the same period a year ago, and representing a surplus of 2.7 mb, or 2.0%, with the five-year average. The build in middle distillate stocks was driven by lower demand combined with higher production. Jet fuel stocks rose in June by 2.9 mb to stand at 41.4 mb. At this level, jet fuel stocks stood at 5.1 mb, or 14%, lower than the same month a year ago, and are 0.9 mb, or 2.3%, below the latest five-year average.

In contrast, gasoline stocks in June fell for the fourth consecutive month, dropping by 3.6 mb to stand at 216.7 mb. At this level, gasoline stocks were 2.1 mb, or 1.0%, lower than the same period a year ago but were 0.6 mb, or 0.3 %, above the latest five-year average. The drop came mainly from stronger apparent demand averaging nearly 9.5 mb/d, around 240,000 more than previous month. Higher gasoline output reaching nearly 9.9 mb/d limited further drop in gasoline inventories. Residual fuel oil also fell by 1.0 mb in May to stand at 40.1 mb, which is 3.0 mb, or 9.4%, higher than last year in the same period, and were 1.9 mb, or 5.0%, above the seasonal norm.



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