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Stock Movements - September 2015

Source: OPEC_RP150911 9/15/2015, Location: Europe

OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 8.5 mb in July to stand at 2,925 mb, around 234 mb higher than same time one year ago, and about 202 mb above the latest five-year average. Crude oil and products showed a surplus of around 163 mb and 39 mb above the seasonal norm, respectively. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks stood at 63.3 days, 4.8 days higher than the latest five-year average. Preliminary data for August shows that total commercial oil stocks in the US rose by 15.4 mb, to stand at 1,289 mb. At this level, they were 158.2 mb or 14% above the same period a year ago and 169.5 mb or 15.1% higher than the latest five-year average. Within the components, product stocks went up by 14.9 mb, while crude saw a slight build of 0.2 mb. The latest information for China showed an increase in total commercial oil inventories of 8.9 mb in July, to stand at 420.9 mb, which is around 13.6 mb above the previous year at the same time. Within the components, commercial crude and product stocks both rose, by 3.7 mb and 5.2 mb, respectively.

OECD
The latest information for July shows that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 8.5 mb for the previous five consecutive months to stand at 2,925 mb. With this build, stocks are 234.1 mb higher than at the same time one year ago and 201.9 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude fell by 3.9 mb, while products rose by 12.4 mb.

OECD commercial crude stocks fell to end July at 1,473 mb, standing 147.3 mb above the same time one year earlier and 162.6 mb higher than the latest five-year average. OECD Americas saw a stock draw, while OECD Europe and Asia Pacific experienced builds. Strong refinery throughputs in the US were behind the decline in crude oil inventories in July.

In contrast, OECD product inventories rose in July by 12.4 mb, ending the month at 1,452 mb. At this level, product inventories stood 86.8 mb higher than a year ago at the same time, and were 39.3 mb above the seasonal norm.

In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell slightly by 0.1 days in July from the previous month to stand at 63.3 days, or 4.9 days above the previous year in the same period and 4.8 days higher than the latest five-year average. Within the regions, OECD Americasí days of forward cover was 5.4 days higher than the historical average to stand at 62.1 days in July. OECD Asia Pacific stood 4.0 days above the seasonal average to finish the month at 57.0 days. At the same time, OECD Europe indicated a surplus of 4.0 days above the seasonal norm, averaging 68.8 days in July.

Commercial stocks in OECD Americas fell by 9.7 mb in July, reversing the build of the last four months. At 1,535 mb, stocks represented a surplus of 157.0 mb above the seasonal norm and around 139.6 mb above the same time one year ago. Within components, crude stocks fell by 14.3 mb, while product inventories rose by 4.6 mb. At the end of July, crude commercial oil stocks in OECD Americas fell for the third consecutive month to stand at 785 mb. At this level, they were 114.7 mb above the latest five-year average and 93.3 mb higher than the same time one year ago. Higher crude oil refinery input in the US was the main driver behind the fall in crude oil stocks. Refinery runs reached 16.4 mb/d in July, which corresponds to around 94% of operable capacity.

In contrast, product stocks in OECD Americas rose by 4.6 mb, ending July at 750 mb. At this level, they indicated a surplus of 46.4 mb above the same time one year ago, and were 42.4 mb higher than the seasonal norm. The build in product stocks came mainly from higher refinery output.

OECD Europeís commercial stocks rose by 9.2 mb in July, reversing the drop of the previous month to stand at 953 mb. This was 70.0 mb higher than the same time a year ago and represented a surplus of 27.2 mb above the latest five-year average. Crude and product stocks rose by 4.8 mb and 4.4 mb, respectively.

OECD Europeís commercial crude stocks rose in July to stand at 419 mb, which was 32.5 mb above the same period a year earlier and 27 mb higher than the latest five-year average. Higher crude supply was the main reason behind the build in crude oil inventories, as increases in crude runs limited further build. OECD Europeís commercial product stocks also rose by 4.4 mb in July, ending the month at 534 mb, 37.5 mb higher than a year ago at the same time, and at around the seasonal norm. Higher refinery output contributed to the drop in Europeís commercial product stocks.

OECD Asia Pacific commercial oil stocks rose by 9.0 mb in July, reversing Juneís fall to stand at 437 mb. At this level, OECD Asia Pacific commercial oil inventories were 24.4 mb higher than a year ago and 17.7 mb above the five-year average. Within the components, crude and product stocks rose by 5.6 mb and 3.4 mb, respectively. Crude inventories ended the month of July at 268 mb. They stood 21.5 mb higher than a year ago and 20.9 mb above the seasonal norm. OECD Asia Pacificís total product inventories ended June at 169 mb, indicating a surplus of 2.9 mb with a year ago, but 3.2 mb lower than the seasonal norm.

EU plus Norway
Preliminary data for July shows that total European stocks rose by 4.4 mb for the second consecutive month to stand at 1,114.6 mb, which was 53.8 mb or 5.1% above the same time a year ago and 31.9 mb or 2.9% higher than the latest five-year average. Crude stocks rose by 4.8 mb, while product inventories fell by 0.4 mb from the previous month.

European crude inventories rose in July for the fifth consecutive month to stand at 501.8 mb, which was 29.5 mb or 6.2% above the same period a year ago and 37.0 mb or 8.0% higher than the seasonal norm. The increase came despite higher crude runs in July, which reached 10.5 mb/d, around 120,000 b/d more than Juneís level, with high supply the main reason behind the build.

In contrast, European product stocks fell by 0.4 mb in July to stand at 612.8 mb, which was 24.4 mb or 4.1% above a year ago at the same time, but remained 5.1 mb or 0.8% below the seasonal norm. Within products the picture was mixed, with gasoline and residual fuel oil stocks going down, while middle distillates witnessed stock builds.

Gasoline stocks fell by 1.5 mb in July to stand at 113.7 mb, which was 8.9 mb or 8.5% above a year earlier and 6.0 mb or 5.6% higher than the seasonal norm. The decline in gasoline stocks was driven mainly by higher demand in the region, as increasing refinery output limited a further drop. Residual fuel oil stocks also fell by 0.8 mb in July to stand at 74.4 mb, which was 2.2 mb, or 3.1%, above the same month a year ago, but remained 15.8 mb or 17.5% lower than the latest five-year average.

In contrast, distillate stocks rose by 1.9 mb, reversing the decline of the previous month and ending July at 399.2 mb. At this level, distillate stocks were 11.6 mb or 3.0% higher than the previous year at the same time and 9.2 mb, or 2.4%, above the latest five-year average. Higher distillate imports, combined with higher output, were behind the build in distillate inventories. Naphtha stocks remained almost unchanged in July from the previous month to stand at 25.5 mb. At this level, they were 1.6 mb or 6.6% above the same time a year ago, but 4.5 mb or 15.1% lower than the seasonal average.

US
Preliminary data for August shows that total commercial oil stocks in the US rose by 15.1 mb, reversing the decline of the previous month to stand at 1,288.9 mb. At this level, they were 158.2 mb or 14% above the same period a year ago and 169.5 mb or 15.1% higher than the latest five-year average. Within the components, product stocks went up by 14.9 mb, while crude saw a slight build of 0.2 mb.

US commercial crude stocks rose slightly in August, reversing the fall of the last three months to stand at 455.4 mb. Crude commercial stocks finished the month at 94.8 mb or 26.3% above the same time last year and 96.7 mb or 27.0% above the latest five-year average. Lower crude oil refinery input contributed to the stock-build. Indeed, refinery runs fell by around 110,000 b/d to average 16.7 mb/d. Refineries were running at around 93.6% of operable capacity in August, 0.6 pp lower than in the previous month, but 1.6% higher than last year at the same time. An increase in crude oil imports also contributed to the build in crude oil inventories. Crude at Cushing, Oklahoma, saw also a stock-build of 0.2 mb in August versus the previous month, to end the month at 57.3 mb.

Total product stocks rose by 14.9 mb in August for the sixth consecutive month. At 833.5 mb, US product stocks were at around 63.5 mb or 8.2% above the level seen at the same time a year ago, showing a surplus of 72.8 mb or 9.6% above the seasonal norm. Within products, the picture was mixed. Distillates and residual fuel oil saw a build, while gasoline and jet fuel experienced drops.

Distillate stocks rose by 5.1 mb in August, ending the month at 150.0 mb. At this level, they indicated a surplus of 21.8 mb or 17.0% from the same period a year ago, and stood 7.6 mb or 5.3% above the latest five-year average. The build in middle distillate stocks was driven by lower demand, which decreased by around 20,000 b/d, averaging 3.7 mb/d. Residual fuel oil inventories also rose by 0.7 mb to 40.2 mb, which was 2.7 mb or 7.1% higher than last year over the same period and 3.3 mb or 8.9% above the seasonal norm.

In contrast, gasoline stocks fell by 2.6 mb in August for the sixth consecutive month to stand at 214.2 mb. At this level, gasoline stocks were 2.3 mb or 1.1% lower than the same period a year ago and 1.5 mb or 0.7% above the latest five-year average. The drop came mainly from ongoing higher demand reaching more than 9.5 mb/d. Higher gasoline production, which reached nearly 10.0 mb/d, limited a further drop in gasoline inventories. Jet fuel stocks also fell by 0.8 mb, ending August at 42.5 mb. At this level, jet fuel stocks stood 6.9 mb or 19.4% higher than in the same month a year ago, and were 0.8 mb or 1.9% above the latest five-year average.

Japan
In Japan, total commercial oil stocks rose by 8.9 mb in July, reversing Juneís stock draw. At 167.4 mb, Japanese commercial oil inventories stood 4.9 mb or 3.0% higher than a year ago, but remained 4.9 mb or 2.9% below the five-year average. Within the components, crude and product inventories rose by 5.6 mb and 3.4 mb, respectively.

Japanese commercial crude oil stocks rose in July for the third consecutive month to stand at 103.0 mb. With the build, stocks were 3.6 mb above a year ago at the same time and 1.1 mb above the seasonal norm. The stock build in crude oil was driven by higher crude imports, which rose by around 500,000 b/d or 17.0% to average 3.4 mb/d. Higher crude runs limited a further build in crude oil stocks. Indeed, refinery runs rose by about 430 tb/d to stand at 3.1 mb/d, corresponding to a utilization rate of 78.6%, 11.0 pp above the previous month and 2.1 pp above a year ago at the same time.

Japanís total product inventories also rose by 3.4 mb in July, reversing the drop of the previous month. At 64.1 mb, product stocks stood 1.3 mb or 2.1% above the same time a year ago, but showed a deficit of 6.0 mb or 8.6% with the five-year average. The build was driven mainly by higher refinery output, which rose by around 335 tb/d, or 12.9%, to stand at 2.9 mb/d, but was 2.8% higher than a year ago at the same time. Increases in oil product sales limited a further build in inventories. Oil product sales rose by around 100,000 b/d, averaging 2.9 mb/d, 1.0% higher than a year ago at the same time. Within products, the picture was mixed; distillate and residual fuel oil stocks rose, while gasoline and naphtha experienced stock draws.

Distillate stocks rose by 3.5 mb in July to stand at 28.9 mb. At this level, distillate stocks were 2.6 mb or 10.0% above the same period a year ago, but 1.4 mb or 4.8% below the seasonal average. Within distillate components, gasoil and kerosene stocks rose by 12.9% and 11.6%, respectively, while jet fuel stocks rose by 20.0%. The build in distillate components was driven by higher output combined with lower domestic sales.

Total residual fuel oil stocks rose by 1.2 mb in July to stand at 13.6 mb, which was 2.5 mb or 15.7% below a year ago and 2.4 mb or 15.2% lower than the latest five-year average. Within the fuel oil components, fuel oil A and fuel oil B.C stocks rose by 0.7% and 16.1%, respectively. The build was driven by lower domestic sales, combined with higher production.

Gasoline stocks fell by 1.3 mb in July to stand at 9.7 mb, indicating a deficit of 1.3 mb or 11.6% with the same time a year ago, and 2.9 mb or 23.0% below the latest fiveyear average. The fall in gasoline stocks came on the back of higher domestic sales, which increased by 13.7%. Higher gasoline output limited a further stock draw.

China
The latest information for China showed an increase in total commercial oil inventories of 8.9 mb in July to stand at 420.9 mb, which was around 13.6 mb above the previous year at the same time. Within the components, both commercial crude and product stocks rose, by 3.7 mb and 5.2 mb, respectively.

At 252.7 mb, commercial crude stocks represented a deficit of around 7.6 mb over the same period one year earlier. The build in crude oil commercial stocks could be attributed to higher crude oil imports, which increased by 55,000 b/d to average 7.3 mb/d. A slight increase in crude oil output also contributed to this build. However, the increase in refinery crude runs in China limited a further build in commercial crude oil inventories.

Total product stocks in China also rose by 5.2 mb, ending July at 168.2 mb, which was 21.2 mb higher than a year ago at the same time. Within the products, the total build came from diesel inventories. Diesel stocks rose by 5.3 mb to end July at 95.9 mb, representing a surplus of 26.2 mb above a year ago at the same time. The build in diesel inventories could be attributed to lower demand reflecting poor construction activities. Gasoline rose slightly by 0.1 mb to 56.5 mb, ending July at 56.6 mb, while kerosene inventories fell 0.2 mb to finish July at 15.8 mb.

Singapore and Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA)
At the end of July, product stocks in Singapore rose by 4.3 mb, reversing the decline of the previous month to stand at 51.7 mb, which was 11.5 mb or 28.6% above the same period a year ago. Within products, middle distillates and fuel oil stocks experienced a build, while light distillates saw a drop.

Middle distillate stocks rose by 2.7 mb in July, finishing the month at 12.7 mb, which was 1.0 mb or 8.5% above the same time a year ago. Residual fuel oil stocks also rose by 1.8 mb in July, ending the month at 27.1 mb, which was 8.2 mb or 43.6% higher than at the same time a year ago. The build was driven mainly by lower demand in the region. In contrast, light distillate stocks went down by 0.3 mb, ending July at 11.9 mb, which was 2.3 mb or 23.4% above the previous year at the same time.

Product stocks in Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) rose by 1.6 mb in July, up for the third consecutive month, to stand at 46.7 mb. At this level, stocks are 10.9 mb or 30.5% higher than at the same time a year ago. Within products, the picture was mixed. Gasoline and jet fuel experienced builds, while naphtha, gasoil and fuel oil witnessed draws.

Gasoline stocks rose by 2.0 mb in July, ending the month at 9.5 mb, which is 3.1 mb or 49.2% higher than the same period a year ago. The build was mainly driven by higher output. Jet fuel oil rose by 1.1 mb, ending July at 6.0 mb, which was 2.6 mb or almost 80% higher than the previous year at the same time. In contrast, fuel oil stocks fell by 0.6 mb, ending July at 5.8 mb, which was 1.4 mb or 31% above a year ago in the same period.

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