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Stock Movements- October 2015

Source: OPEC_RP151011 10/17/2015, Location: Europe

OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 9.3 mb in August to stand at 2,933 mb, around 194 mb higher than both the same time one year ago and the latest fiveyear average. Crude oil and products indicated a surplus of around 167 mb and 27 mb above the seasonal norm, respectively. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks stood at 63.3 days, 4.5 days higher than the latest fiveyear average. Preliminary data for September shows that total commercial oil stocks in the US rose by 12.4 mb to stand at 1,301 mb. At this level, they were 157.3 mb or 13.8% above the same period a year ago and 177.1 mb or 15.8% higher than the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and product stocks went up by 2.5 mb and 9.9 mb, respectively. The latest information for China showed a drop in total commercial oil inventories of 13.5 mb in August. At 407.4 mb, Chinese oil inventories were around 3.8 mb above the previous year at the same time. Within the components, crude commercial oil fell slightly by 0.3 mb, while products fell much more, by 13.2 mb.

OECD
The latest information for August shows that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose for the sixth consecutive month by 9.3 mb, to stand at 2,933 mb. With this build, stocks were around 194 mb higher than both the same time one year ago and the latest fiveyear average. Within the components, crude fell by 2.3 mb, while products rose by 11.6 mb. Higher refinery throughputs across most OECD countries have led to a crude stock draw, while at the same time resulting in gains in product stocks.

OECD commercial crude stocks fell to end August at 1,472 mb, standing 148.3 mb above the same time one year earlier and 166.9 mb higher than the latest five-year average. OECD Europe saw a drop, while OECD Asia Pacific experienced a build. OECD Americas remained almost unchanged.

By contrast, OECD product inventories rose in August by 11.6 mb following a build of 26.7 mb in July. At 1,461 mb, product inventories stood 45.6 mb higher than a year ago at the same time, and were 26.9 mb above the seasonal norm.

In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks rose slightly by 0.1 days in August from the previous month to stand at 63.3 days, or 3.9 days above the same month in the previous year and 4.5 days higher than the latest five-year average.

Within the regions, OECD Americasí days of forward cover were 6.0 days higher than the historical average to stand at 63.1 days in August. OECD Asia Pacific stood 4.1 days above the seasonal average to finish the month at 55.9 days. At the same time, OECD Europe indicated a surplus of 4.1 days above the seasonal norm, averaging 67.8 days in August.

Commercial stocks in OECD Americas rose by 9.3 mb in August, ending the month at 1,558 mb. At this level, they represented a surplus of 174.8 mb above the seasonal norm and around 151.6 mb above the same time a year ago. Within components, crude stocks remained unchanged by 14.3 mb, while product inventories rose by 8.9 mb.

At the end of August, crude commercial oil stocks in OECD Americas stood at 794 mb, which was 124.6 mb above the latest five-year average and 106.0 mb higher than the same time a year ago. Increased crude runs in the US didnít limit a further build in crude inventories, as crude imports and domestic production were still higher. Product stocks in OECD Americas rose by 8.9 mb, ending August at 762 mb. At this level, they indicated a surplus of 45.6 mb above the same time one year ago, and were 50.2 mb higher than the seasonal norm. The build in product stocks came mainly from higher refinery output, despite an improvement in US demand.

OECD Europeís commercial stocks declined slightly by 0.7 mb in August to stand at 936 mb. At this level, they were 33.8 mb higher than the same time a year ago and in line with the latest five-year average. Crude stocks rose by 1.8 mb, while products declined by 2.5 mb.

OECD Europeís commercial crude stocks rose in August to stand at 413 mb, which was 29.7 mb above the same period a year earlier and 18.7 mb higher than the latest five-year average. Lower crude runs combined with an increase in supply were the main reason behind the build in inventories.

OECD Europeís commercial product stocks fell by 2.5 mb in August, ending the month at 523 mb, 4.1 mb higher than a year ago at the same time, but 18.9 mb below the seasonal norm. This drop wa

s driven by higher refinery output as well as an increase in regional demand. OECD Asia Pacific commercial oil stocks rose by 1.1 mb in August ending the month at 440 mb, which was 8.5 mb higher than a year ago and 19.2 mb above the five-year average. Within the components, crude fell by 4.1 mb, while products saw a build of 5.2 mb. Crude inventories ended the month of August at 264 mb. They stood 12.6 mb higher than a year ago and 23.6 mb above the seasonal norm. OECD Asia Pacificís total product inventories ended August at 176 mb, indicating a deficit of 4.1 mb with one year ago, and standing 4.4 mb lower than the seasonal norm.

EU plus Norway
Preliminary data for August shows that total European stocks fell slightly by 0.7 mb to stand at 1,107.7 mb. At this level, they were 27.7 mb or 2.6% above the same time a year ago and 19.2 mb or 1.8% higher than the latest five-year average. Crude stocks rose by 1.8 mb, while product inventories fell by 2.5 mb from the previous month. European crude inventories rose in August to stand at 493.9 mb, which was 24.2 mb or 5.1% above the same period a year ago and 27.7 mb or 5.9% higher than the seasonal norm. The increase was driven by a fall in crude runs in August to around 10.4 mb/d, down by 70,000 b/d, from the previous month. European throughput is expected to soften seasonally in the next two months, leading to a greater build in crude oil inventories.

In contrast, European product stocks fell by 2.5 mb in August to stand at 613.8 mb, which was 3.6 mb or 0.6% above a year ago at the same time, though still remaining 8.4 mb or 1.4% below the seasonal norm. Within products, the picture was mixed, with naphtha and residual fuel oil stocks going down, while middle distillates and gasoline witnessed stock builds.

Gasoline stocks fell by 0.6 mb in August to stand at 108.0 mb, which was 0.9 mb or 0.8% below a year earlier and 0.4 mb or 0.3% higher than the seasonal norm. The decline in gasoline stocks was driven mainly by higher demand in the region, combined with lower gasoline output. Distillate stocks also fell by 4.4 mb, ending August at 404.0 mb and reversing the previous monthís build of 11.1 mb. At this level, distillate stocks were 2.4 mb or 0.6% higher than the previous year at the same time and 6.6 mb, or 1.7%, above the latest five-year average. This drop was driven mainly by strong diesel demand in the region, especially in Germany and the UK. Higher distillate exports from the region also contributed to this drop.

In contrast, residual fuel oil stocks rose by 1.6 mb/d in August to stand at 77.2 mb, which was 2.8 mb, or 3.8%, above the same month a year ago, but still 13.6 mb or 15.0% lower than the latest five-year average. Naphtha stocks rose slightly by 0.9 mb in August to stand at 24.6 mb. At this level, they were 0.7 mb or 2.8% less than the same time a year ago and 1.8 mb or 6.7% lower than the seasonal average.

US
Preliminary data for September shows that total commercial oil stocks in the US rose by 12.4 mb, following a build of 15.4 mb in August, to stand at 1,301 mb. At this level, they were 157.3 mb or 13.8% above the same period a year ago and 177.1 mb or 15.8% higher than the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and product stocks went up by 2.5 mb and 9.9 mb, respectively.

US commercial crude stocks rose in September to stand at 457.9 mb, finishing the month at 97 mb or 27% above the same time one year earlier and 98.8 mb or 27.5% above the latest five-year average. Lower crude oil refinery input contributed to the stock build. Indeed, refinery runs fell by around 500,000 b/d to average 16.2 mb/d. Refineries were running at around 90.7% of operable capacity in September, 2.9 pp lower than the previous month, but 1.3% higher than the same time one year ago. A drop in crude oil imports limited a further build in crude oil inventories. In contrast, crude at Cushing, Oklahoma, saw a stock draw of 4.7 mb in September versus the previous month, to end the month at 53.0 mb.

Total product stocks rose by 9.9 mb in September for the seventh consecutive month. At 843.4 mb, US product stocks were at around 60.3 mb or 7.7% above the level seen at the same time a year ago, showing a surplus of 78.3 mb or 10.2% above the seasonal norm. Within products, the picture was mixed. Gasoline and distillates saw a build, while jet fuel and residual fuel oil experienced drops.

Gasoline stocks rose by 7.8 mb in September, reversing the drop of the previous six consecutive months, to stand at 222.0 mb. At this level, gasoline stocks were 9.5 mb or 4.5% higher than the same period a year ago and 8.3 mb or 3.9% above the latest fiveyear average. The build came mainly from lower demand reflecting the end of summer. Lower gasoline production limited a further build in gasoline inventories.

Distillate stocks rose by 1.7 mb in September, ending the month at 151.6 mb. At this level, they indicated a surplus of 20.3 mb or 15.5% from the same period a year ago, and stood 9.9 mb or 7.0% above the latest five-year average. The build in middle distillate stocks was driven mainly by steady output, averaging nearly 5.0 mb/d. In contrast, residual fuel oil inventories fell by 0.4 mb to 39.8 mb, which was 3.2 mb or 8.8% higher than one year ago in the same period, and 3.4 mb or 9.3% above the seasonal norm. Jet fuel stocks also fell by 2.5 mb, ending September at 40.1 mb. At this level, jet fuel stocks stood at 0.5 mb, or 1.2%, higher than the same month a year ago, but were 3.4 mb or 7.8% below the latest five-year average.

Japan
In Japan, total commercial oil stocks rose by 1.1 mb in August, following a build of 8.9 mb in July to stand at 168.5 mb. At this level, Japanese commercial oil inventories stood 0.2 mb or 0.1% above a year ago, but remained 2.1 mb or 1.2% below the fiveyear average. Within the components, product inventories rose by 5.2 mb, while crude fell by 4.1 mb.

Japanese commercial crude oil stocks fell in August, reversing the build of the previous three months to stand at 99.2 mb. Despite this drop, they were 1.1 mb or 1.2% above a year ago at the same time and 3.4 mb or 3.6% mb above the seasonal norm. This stock draw was driven by higher crude throughputs, which increased by about 400,000 b/d, or 10.1%, averaging 3.5 mb/d. However, higher crude oil imports limited a further drop in crude oil stocks. Indeed, crude oil imports rose by around 60,000 b/d or 1.8% in August to stand at 3.5 mb/d, which was 4.3% above a year ago at the same time.

In contrast, Japanís total product inventories rose by 5.2 mb in August for the second consecutive month to stand at 69.3 mb. At this level, product stocks stood 1.0 mb or 1.4% below the same time a year ago, showing a deficit of 5.5 mb or 7.4% with the five-year average. The build was driven mainly by higher refinery output, which rose by around 285,000 b/d, or 9.7%, to stand at 3.2 mb/d; this was 5.9% higher than a year ago at the same time. Increases in oil product sales limited a further build in inventories. They rose by around 120,000 b/d, averaging 3.0 mb/d, 3.1% higher than a year ago at the same time. Within products, the picture was mixed; distillates and residual fuel oil stocks rose, while naphtha experienced stock draws. Gasoline stocks remained almost unchanged.

Distillate stocks rose by 4.5 mb in August to stand at 33.5 mb. At this level, distillate stocks were 0.6 mb or 2.0% above the same period a year ago, but 1.3 mb or 3.7% below the seasonal average. All distillate components rose, with the bulk coming from kerosene, indicating a build of 29.4%.Gasoil and jet fuel stocks rose by 2.2% and 2.4%, respectively. The build in distillate components was driven by higher output combined with higher oil imports, while domestic sales limited a further build in distillate stocks. Total residual fuel oil stocks rose by 0.8 mb in August to stand at 14.4 mb, which was 2.6 mb or 15.0% below a year ago and 2.0 mb or 12.2% lower than the latest five-year average. Within the fuel oil components, fuel oil A and fuel oil B.C stocks rose by 2.4% and 8.3%, respectively. This build came mainly from higher fuel oil output. Gasoline stocks remained unchanged in August, ending the month at 9.7 mb. At this level, they indicated a deficit of 0.9 mb or 8.2% with the same time a year ago, and 3.0 mb or 23.9% below the latest five-year average. Higher gasoline output was offset by an increase in domestic sales.

China
The latest information for China showed a drop in total commercial oil inventories of 13.5 mb in August, reversing a build of 8.9 mb in July. At 407.4 mb, Chinese oil inventories were around 3.8 mb above the previous year at the same time. Within the components, crude commercial oil fell slightly by 0.3 mb, while products fell much more, by 13.2 mb.

At 252.4 mb, commercial crude stocks represented a deficit of around 13.4 mb over the same period one year earlier. The slight drop in crude oil commercial stocks could be attributed to higher crude runs, which increased by 7.1% to average 10.5 mb/d. The decline in crude oil imports by 13.4% to 6.3 mb/d limited a further build in Chinese crude oil commercial inventories.

Total product stocks in China fell substantially by 13.2 mb, ending August at 155.0 mb. Despite this drop, product stocks were 17.2 mb higher than a year ago at the same time. Within products, gasoline and diesel fell by 5.5 mb and 7.3 mb, respectively. Diesel stocks fell by 7.3 mb to end August at 88.5 mb, but represented a surplus of 26.1 mb above a year ago at the same time. The fall in diesel inventories is mainly attributed to higher demand as an improving housing market boosted diesel consumption. Gasoline stocks also fell by 5.5 mb, ending August at 51.1 mb. This stock draw was driven by higher apparent gasoline demand, which was nearly 20% above the level experienced the previous year at the same time.

Singapore and Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA)
At the end of August, product stocks in Singapore declined by 0.4 mb, reversing a build of 4.3 mb in July. At 51.3 mb, product stocks in Singapore were 10.9 mb or 27% above the same period a year ago. Within products, the picture was mixed; light and middle distillates saw a build, while fuel oil stocks experienced a drop. Light distillate stocks went up slightly by 0.1 mb in August, ending August at 12.0 mb, which was 0.9 mb or 8.5% above the previous year at the same time. Middle distillate stocks rose also by 0.8 mb in August, finishing the month at 13.5 mb, which was 2.7 mb or 24.9% above the same time a year ago. The build was mainly driven by higher refinery throughput in the region. In contrast, residual fuel oil stocks fell by 1.3 mb in August, ending the month at 25.8 mb, which was 7.2 mb or 39% higher than at the same time a year ago. The fall was driven mainly by improved demand for bunker fuels.

Product stocks in Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) rose by 4.3 mb in August, up for the fourth consecutive month, to stand at 46.7 mb. At this level, stocks are 14.6 mb or 40.2% higher than at the same time a year ago. Within products, the picture was mixed. Naphtha, gasoil and fuel oil experienced builds, while gasoline and jet oil witnessed draws.

Gasoil rose by 2.5 mb in August, ending the month at 26.1 mb, which was 5.5 mb or 26.8% higher than the same month the previous year. Fuel oil stocks also rose by 1.9 mb, ending August at 7.8 mb, which was 2.5 mb or 48% above a year ago in the same period. Both products rose on the back of higher throughput in the region. In contrast, gasoline stocks fell by 0.9 mb in August, ending the month at 8.6 mb, which is 2.5 mb or 41.4% higher than the same period a year ago. The build was mainly driven by improvements in gasoline demand for the European region.

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