OECD commercial oil stocks fell in October to stand at 2,955 mb, which is around
244 mb higher than the latest five-year average. Crude and products indicated
surpluses of around 180 mb and 64 mb above the seasonal norm, respectively. In
terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks stood at 63.5 days,
which is 5.1 days higher than the latest five-year average. Preliminary data for
November shows that total commercial oil stocks in the US rose by 6.5 mb to
stand at 1,309.1 mb. At this level, they were 202 mb higher than the latest fiveyear
average. Within the components, crude rose by 6.6 mb, while products
remained almost unchanged.
The latest information for China showed a drop in total commercial oil inventories of 23.5 mb in October to stand at 378.2 mb. Within the components, commercial crude oil and products fell by 11.4 mb and 12.2 mb, respectively.
OECD
The latest information for October shows that total OECD commercial oil stocks fell
by 11.7 mb, reversing the massive build of 64 mb during the last three months. At
2,955 mb, OECD commercial oil stocks were around 226 mb higher than at the same
time one year ago and 244 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the
components, crude rose by 17.5 mb, while products fell by 29.1 mb. Refinery
turnarounds cut runs, resulting in a build in crude stocks and a large stock-draw in
OECD total products.
OECD commercial crude stocks rose by 17.5 mb, ending October at 1,499 mb, which
is 136 mb above the same time one year earlier and 180 mb higher than the latest fiveyear
average. OECD Americas experienced a build, while OECD Asia Pacific and
OECD Europe saw declines.
In contrast, OECD product inventories fell in October by 29.2 mb, reversing the build
of the last three months, to stand at 1,456 mb. Despite this drop, product inventories
stood 90 mb higher than a year ago at the same time and 64 mb above the seasonal
norm.
In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 0.1 days in
October from the previous month to stand at 63.5 days, which is 4.4 days above a year
ago at the same time and 5.1 days higher than the latest five-year average. Within the
regions, OECD Americas’ days of forward cover were 7.0 days higher than the
historical average to stand at 64.1 days in October. OECD Asia Pacific stood 3.3 days
above the seasonal average to finish the month at 51.0 days. At the same time,
OECD Europe indicated a surplus of 2.9 days above the seasonal norm, averaging
70.7 days in October.
Commercial stocks in OECD Americas fell by 3.6 mb in October to end the month at
1,571 mb, which represents a surplus of 161 mb above a year ago and nearly 200 mb
higher than the seasonal norm. Within the components, crude stocks rose by 22.0 mb,
while product inventories fell by 25.6 mb.
At the end of October, commercial crude oil stocks in OECD Americas stood at
830 mb, which was 101 mb above the same time one year ago and 143 mb above the
latest five-year average. The build was mainly driven by lower refinery runs in the US,
which fell by around 600,000 b/d to average 15.5 mb/d. Refineries were running at
around 87.2% of operable capacity in October, which is 3.2 pp lower than in the
previous month. In contrast, product stocks in OECD Americas declined by 25.6 mb
to end October at 1,456 mb, which is 53 mb above the same time one year ago and
56 mb higher than the seasonal norm. The drop came mainly from lower refinery output
combined with increased US demand.
OECD Europe’s commercial stocks declined by 6.9 mb in October to stand at
939 mb, which is 57.3 mb higher than the same time a year ago and 24 mb above the
latest five-year average. Both crude and product stocks fell by 4.2 mb and 2.7 mb,
respectively.
OECD Europe’s commercial crude stocks fell in October to stand at 402 mb, which
is 15.5 mb above the same period a year earlier and 8.6 mb higher than the latest fiveyear
average. Higher crude runs were behind the decline. OECD Europe’s
commercial product stocks also fell by 2.7 mb in October, ending the month at
537 mb, which is 41.8 mb higher than a year ago at the same time and 15.4 mb higher
than the seasonal norm. This drop was mainly driven by higher product demand in the
region, especially for middle distillates.
OECD Asia Pacific commercial oil stocks fell by 1.2 mb in October to end the month
at 442 mb, which is 8.1 mb higher than a year ago and 21.1 mb above the five-year
average. Within the components, crude and product stocks fell by 0.3 mb and 0.9 mb,
respectively. Crude inventories ended the month of October at 267 mb, which is
13.2 mb higher than a year ago and 28.5 mb above the seasonal norm. OECD Asia
Pacific’s total product inventories ended October at 175 mb, which is a deficit of 5.1 mb
below a year ago and 7.4 mb lower than the seasonal norm.
EU plus Norway
Preliminary data for October shows that total European stocks fell by 6.9 mb following
a build of 10.4 mb in September. At 1,111.9 mb, European stocks were 57.0 mb, or
5.4%, above the same time a year ago and 43.2 mb, or 4.0%, higher than the latest
five-year average. Both crude and product stocks fell by 4.2 mb and 2.6 mb,
respectively.
European crude inventories fell in October to stand at 485.3 mb, which is 12.3 mb, or
2.6%, above the same period a year ago and 22 mb, or 4.8%, higher than the seasonal
norm. The fall in crude oil stocks was driven by higher refinery runs, which increased by
20,000 b/d over the previous month, to average 10.6 mb/d in October.
European product stocks also fell by 2.6 mb in October to stand at 626.6 mb, which
is 44.7 mb, or 7.7%, above the same time a year ago and 21.1 mb, or 3.5%, above the
seasonal norm. Within products, the picture was mixed, with the bulk of the stock-draw
coming from distillate inventories.
Gasoline stocks rose slightly by 0.2 mb in October to stand at 106.5 mb, which was
2.4 mb, or 2.3%, above a year earlier, but remained 1.3 mb, or 1.2%, less than the
seasonal norm. In contrast, distillate stocks fell by 3.1 mb to end October at
420.7 mb, reversing the build of the last three months. Despite this stock-draw, distillate
stocks were 38.5 mb, or 10.1%, higher than the previous year at the same time and
39.7 mb, or 10.4%, above the latest five-year average. This fall could be attributed to
higher middle distillate demand in the region as well as lower distillate output.
Residual fuel oil stocks rose marginally by 0.3 mb in October, reversing the drop of
last month, to settle at 76.1 mb, which is 7.1 mb, or 10.3%, above the same month a
year ago but 11.8 mb, or 13.4.%, lower than the latest five-year average. Naphtha
stocks remained unchanged in October to end the month at 23.3 mb, which is 3.3 mb,
or 12.3%, less than the same time a year ago and 5.5 mb, or 19.2%, lower than the
seasonal average.
US
Preliminary data for November shows that total commercial oil stocks in the US rose
by 6.7 mb, reversing the fall of last year to end the month at 1,309.1 mb. At this level,
they were 158.3 mb, or 13.8%, above the same period a year ago and 202.2 mb, or
18.3%, higher than the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude rose by
6.6 mb, while products remained almost unchanged.
US commercial crude stocks rose in November to stand at 489.4 mb. Commercial
crude stocks finished the month at 101.9 mb, or 26.3%, above the same time last year
and 123.7 mb, or 33.8%, above the latest five-year average. Commercial crude stocks
have risen for 10 consecutive weeks, defying expectations that inventories would start
to fall once refineries exited the seasonal maintenance. Refinery runs rose in
November by nearly 700,000 b/d, reaching 16.1 mb/d, raising the utilization rate to
more than 90% in November from 86.7% in October. A build in crude oil imports
contributed to the build in crude oil commercial inventories. Indeed, crude oil imports
increased by 173,000 b/d to stand at 7.36 mb/d in November. Crude at Cushing,
Oklahoma, also saw a stock build of 5.7 mb in November, ending the month at
59.0 mb.
Total product stocks remained almost unchanged in November, following a massive
drop of 25.6 mb in October. At 819.7 mb, US product stocks were at around 56.4 mb or
7.4% above the level seen at the same time a year ago, showing a surplus of 78.6 mb
or 10.6% above the seasonal norm. Within products, the picture was mixed. All the
major products saw builds, while other unfinished products experienced draws.
Gasoline stocks rose by 1.5 mb in November, reversing the fall of the previous month
to stand at 216.9 mb. At this level, gasoline stocks were 2.2 mb, or 1.0%, lower than
the same period a year ago, but remained in line with the latest five-year average. The
build came mainly from higher gasoline production, which increased by around
30,000 b/d. Lower gasoline demand also contributed to the build in gasoline
inventories.
Distillate stocks also rose by 3.7 mb in November, ending the month at 144.4 mb.
At this level, they still indicated a surplus of 18.3 mb, or 14.5%, from the same period a
year ago, and stood 10.2 mb, or 7.6%, above the latest five-year average. The build in
middle distillate stocks was driven by lower demand, which declined by around
100,000 b/d to average 3.9 mb/d. Higher distillate fuel output also contributed to this
build.
Residual fuel oil inventories rose by 1.0 mb to 43.5 mb, which was 7.2 mb, or 19.8%,
higher than last year over the same period and 5.7 mb, or 15.1%, above the seasonal
norm. Jet fuel stocks rose slightly, ending November at 38.1 mb. At this level, jet fuel
stocks stood 2.2 mb, or 6.2%, higher than in the same month a year ago, but were
1.9 mb, or 4.8%, below the latest five-year average.
Japan
In Japan, total commercial oil stocks fell by 1.2 mb in October, reversing the build of
the last three months, to settle at 169 mb, which is 10.6 mb or 5.9% below a year ago
at the same time and 4.2 mb, or 2.4%, below the latest five-year average. Within the
components, both crude and product inventories fell by 0.3 mb and 0.9 mb,
respectively.
Japanese commercial crude oil stocks fell in October to stand at 99.5 mb, which is
6.9 mb, or 6.4%, below a year ago at the same time yet 1.9 mb above the seasonal
norm. The drop was driven by lower crude imports, which declined by about
141,000 b/d or 4.3%, averaging 3.1 mb/d. Lower crude oil throughput limited further
declines in crude oil stocks. Indeed, crude oil throughput fell by around 163,000 b/d or
5.1% in October from the previous month to stand at 3.1 mb/d, which is 1.1% higher
than a year ago at the same time.
Japan’s total product inventories also fell by 0.9 mb in October, reversing the build of
the last three months, to stand at 69.5 mb, which is 3.8 mb or 5.1% below the same
time a year ago and 6.1 mb or 8.1% under the five-year average. The decline was
driven mainly by lower refinery output, which fell by around 50,000 b/d or 1.9%, to
stand at 2.95 mb/d. The decline in domestic sales limited a further drop in inventories.
Indeed, domestic sales fell by around 20,000 b/d to average 3.0 mb/d, which is 2.5%
lower than a year ago at the same time. Within products, the picture was mixed;
gasoline and residual fuel oil stocks rose, while distillates and naphtha experienced
stock draws.
Gasoline stocks rose by 0.1 mb in October to end the month at 10.2 mb, which is
0.4 mb, or 3.8%, below the same time a year ago and 2.2 mb, or 17.7%, less than the
latest five-year average. This build was driven mainly by higher gasoline output, which
rose by 1.6%, however, higher gasoline sales limited further builds in gasoline
inventories. Total residual fuel oil stocks also rose by 0.2 mb in October to stand at
15.4 mb, which is 0.3 mb, or 1.8%, below a year ago and 0.6 mb, or 3.9%, lower than
the latest five-year average. Within the fuel oil components, fuel oil A and fuel B.C
stocks rose by 2.8% and 0.6%, respectively. This build was driven by higher
production.
In contrast, distillate stocks fell by 1.0 mb in October to stand at 33.4 mb, which is
2.0 mb, or 5.8%, below the same period a year ago and 2.5 mb, or 7.1%, below the seasonal average. Within distillate components, jet fuel and gasoil inventories fell by
10.7% and 13.4%, respectively, while kerosene stocks rose by 8.4%. Naphtha
inventories also fell by 0.1 mb in October to stand at 10.5 mb, which was 1.0 mb, or
8.9%, below a year ago at the same time and 0.7 mb, or 6.5%, less than the seasonal
norm. This fall was driven mainly by lower output combined with reduced imports.
However, lower domestic sales limited further stock-draws.
China
The latest information for China showed a drop in total commercial oil inventories of
23.5 mb in October following a 5.6 mb stock-draw in September. At 378.2 mb, Chinese
oil inventories were around 13 mb below the previous year at the same time. Within the
components, crude commercial oil and products fell by 11.4 mb and 12.2 mb,
respectively.
At 247.0 mb, commercial crude stocks showed a deficit of around 18.1 mb below the
same period one year earlier. The decline could be attributed to both lower crude oil
imports, which declined by around 600,000 b/d to average 6.2 mb/d, as well as to an
increase in crude oil throughputs. However, higher crude oil output, which increased by
1.95%, limited further drops in crude oil stocks.
Total product stocks in China also fell by 12.2 mb, ending October at 131.2 mb, which
is 5.1 mb higher than a year ago at the same time. All product stocks declined, with the
bulk coming from diesel inventories, which dropped by 10.4 mb to end the month of
October at 64.2 mb, which is 7.9 mb higher than a year ago at the same time. Gasoline
stocks also fell by 0.5 mb to stand at 51.8 mb in October, which is 4.0 mb below last
year at the same time. Kerosene stocks fell by 1.2 mb to end the month of October at
15.2 mb, which is 1.2 mb over a year ago. The decline was attributed to higher demand as consumption increased in early October resulting from increased travel in
connection with the observance of the National Day Holiday.
Singapore and Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA)
At the end of October, product stocks in Singapore fell by 3.1 mb, reversing the build
of 0.2 mb in September, to stand at 50.2 mb, which is 8.1 mb or 19.2% above the same
period a year ago. All products experienced stock-draws.
Light distillate stocks fell by 1.5 mb to stand at 10.5 mb, which is 0.8 mb or 7.1%
below the previous year at the same time. Middle distillate stocks also fell by 0.1 mb to
finish the month of October at 13.2 mb, which is 1.8 mb or 15.5% above the same time
a year ago. The drop was mainly driven by higher demand in the region. Residual fuel
oil stocks fell by 1.5 mb in October to end the month at 26.5 mb, which is 7.1 mb or
36.6% higher than the same time a year ago.
Product stocks in Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) fell by 2.5 mb in October,
following a stock-draw of 1.1 mb in September, to settle at 47.3 mb, which is 13.0 mb
or 37.8% higher than the same time a year ago. The drop was mainly driven by
ongoing low water levels on the Rhine, which has reduced exports to the ARA hub.
With the exception of a stock-build in jet fuel, all other products witnessed draws.
Gasoil fell by 0.4 mb to end the month of October at 25.9 mb, which is 6.0 mb or
30.1% higher than the same month last year. Gasoline and fuel oil stocks fell by 0.9 mb
0.4 mb, respectively. At 7.0 mb, gasoline stocks remained 2.6 mb or 61% above last
year at the same time. Fuel oil stocks also indicated a surplus of 3.1 mb or 84% above
a year ago. In contrast, jet oil rose by 0.2 mb to end October at 6.2 mb, which is 1.5 mb
or 33% above a year ago at the same time.
