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Stock Movements - January 2016

Source: OPEC_RP160111 1/18/2016, Location: Europe

OECD commercial oil stocks fell in November to stand at 2,966 mb, around 267 mb higher than the latest five-year average. Crude oil and products indicated a surplus of around 200 mb and 67 mb above the seasonal norm, respectively. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks stood at 63.7 days, 5.8 days higher than the latest five-year average. Preliminary data for December shows that total commercial oil stocks in the US rose by 3.4 mb to stand at 1,312.6 mb. At this level, they were 220 mb higher than the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude fell by 7.1 mb, while products rose by 10.5 mb. The latest information for China shows a slight increase in total commercial oil inventories in November, to stand at 378.9 mb. Within the components, crude commercial oil fell by 1.8 mb, while product inventories rose by 2.5 mb.

OECD
The latest information for November shows that total OECD commercial oil stocks fell by 4.8 mb, following a drop of 8.2 mb in October. At 2,966 mb, OECD commercial oil stocks are around 231 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 267 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude rose by 0.7 mb, while products fell by 5.5 mb.

OECD commercial crude stocks rose slightly by 0.7 mb, ending November at 1,507 mb, which is 168 mb above the same time one year earlier and nearly 200 mb higher than the latest five-year average. OECD Americas experienced a build, while OECD Europe and OECD Asia saw a drop.

In contrast, OECD product inventories fell in November by 5.5 mb, following a massive drop of 29.8 mb a month earlier. At 1,460 mb, product inventories stood 63 mb higher than a year ago at the same time, and were 67 mb above the seasonal norm. OECD Americas experienced a drop, while OECD Europe and OECD Asia Pacific witnessed builds.

In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 0.6 days in November from the previous month to stand at 63.7 days, or 5.3 days above the previous year in the same period and 5.8 days higher than the latest five-year average.

Within the regions, OECD Americas had 7.1 more days of forward cover than the historical average, standing at 64.1 days in November. OECD Asia Pacific stood 3.4 days above the seasonal average to finish the month at 49.1 days. At the same time, OECD Europe indicated a surplus of 3.4 days above the seasonal norm, averaging 72.8 days in November.

Commercial stocks in OECD Americas fell by 4.9 mb in November, ending the month at 1,156 mb. At this level, they represented a surplus of 134 mb above a year ago and nearly 193 mb higher than the seasonal norm. Within components, crude stocks rose by 2.7 mb, while product inventories fell by 7.6 mb.

At the end of November, crude commercial oil stocks in OECD Americas rose to stand at 830 mb, which was 111 mb above the same time one year ago, and 151 mb above the latest five-year average. An increase in crude oil imports into the US contributed to the build in crude oil commercial inventories, while higher refinery runs limited a further increase.

In contrast, product stocks in OECD Americas declined by 7.6 mb, ending November at 1,460 mb. Despite this drop, they indicated a surplus of 24 mb above the same time one year ago, and were 41.2 mb higher than the seasonal norm. The drop in product stocks came mainly from higher US demand.

OECD Europe’s commercial stocks rose by 0.8 mb in November to stand at 970 mb. At this level, they were 85.3 mb higher than the same time a year ago and are 53.5 mb above the latest five-year average. Crude stocks fell by 1.1 mb, while product inventories rose by 1.9 mb.

OECD Europe’s commercial crude stocks fell in October to stand at 412 mb, though still 34.4 mb above the same period a year earlier and 20.4 mb higher than the latest five-year average. The fall in crude oil stocks was driven by higher refinery runs. In contrast, OECD Europe’s commercial product stocks rose by 1.9 mb in November, ending the month at 558 mb, 50.9 mb higher than a year ago at the same time and 33.1 mb higher than the seasonal norm. This build was mainly driven by higher refinery output, combined with lower product demand in the region, due to mild weather.

OECD Asia Pacific commercial oil stocks fell by 0.7 mb in November to end the month at 436 mb, which was 11.9 mb higher than a year ago and 20.7 mb above the five-year average. Within components, crude stocks fell by 0.9 mb, while products rose slightly by 0.2 mb. Crude inventories ended the month of November at 265 mb, which was 23.3 mb higher than a year ago and 27.8 mb above the seasonal norm. OECD Asia Pacific’s total product inventories ended November at 171 mb, indicating a deficit of 11.4 mb with a year ago and 7.1 mb lower than the seasonal norm.

EU plus Norway
Preliminary data for November shows that total European stocks rose slightly by 0.8 mb to stand at 1121.0 mb. At this level, European stocks are 59.1 mb or 5.6% above the same time a year ago and 47.6 mb or 4.4% higher than the latest five-year average. Crude fell by 1.1 mb, while product stocks rose by 1.9 mb.

European crude inventories fell in November to stand at 484.9 mb, which was 15.6 mb, or 3.3%, above the same period a year ago and 20.8 mb, or 4.5%, higher than the seasonal norm. The fall in crude oil stocks was driven by high supply, while the fall in refinery runs, which declined by 180,000 b/d over the previous month, limited further stock draws.

In contrast, European product stocks rose by 1.9 mb in November to stand at 636.0 mb, which was 43.5 mb, or 7.3%, above the same time a year ago; they are 26.8 mb, or 4.4%, above the seasonal norm. All products witnessed builds, with the exception of residual fuel oil.

Gasoline stocks rose by 0.7 mb in November to stand at 107.0 mb, which was 0.7 mb below a year earlier, and 1.9 mb, or 1.7%, less than the seasonal norm. Distillate stocks also rose by 1.2 mb, to end November at 428.9 mb, reversing the stock draw of the previous month. With this build, distillate stocks were 41.4 mb, or 10.7%, higher than the previous year at the same time and 45.0 mb, or 11.7%, above the latest fiveyear average. This build could be attributed to lower middle distillate demand in the region.

In contrast, residual fuel oil stocks fell marginally by 0.4 mb in November to stand at 76.8 mb. At this level, residual fuel oil stocks were 4.7 mb, or 6.6%, above the same month a year ago, but remained 10.8 mb, or 12.3.%, lower than the latest five-year average. Naphtha stocks rose by 0.4 mb in November, ending the month at 23.3 mb. At this level, they were 1.9 mb, or 7.4%, less than the same time a year ago and 5.5 mb, or 19.1%, lower than the seasonal average.

US
Preliminary data for December shows that total commercial oil stocks in the US rose by 3.4 mb, reversing the fall of the previous month to stand at 1,312.6 mb. At this level, they were 147.1 mb, or 12.6%, above the same period a year ago and 219.7 mb, or 20.1%, higher than the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude fell by 7.1 mb, while products rose by 10.5 mb.

US commercial crude stocks fell in December to stand at 482.3 mb. They are 88.6 mb, or 22.5%, above the same time one year ago and 126.5 mb, or 35.6%, above the latest five-year average. The fall was mainly driven by higher refinery runs, which increased by around 300,000 b/d, reaching 16.6 mb/d. Refiners were running at 92.2% or 1.7 percentage points (pp) higher than previous month. In contrast, crude at Cushing, Oklahoma, rose by nearly 4.0 mb to reach a record high of 63.4 mb. This build has put pressure on WTI crude prices.

Total product stocks rose by 10.5 mb in December, reversing the fall of the previous two months. At 830.2 mb, US product stocks were around 58.5 mb, or 7.6%, above the level seen at the same time a year ago, showing a surplus of 93.1 mb, or 12.6%, above the seasonal norm. Within products, the picture was mixed. All major products saw builds, while other unfinished products, propylene and residual fuel stocks experienced draws.

Gasoline stocks rose by 15.1 mb, ending December at 232.0 mb. Despite this build, gasoline stocks were 6.5 mb, or 2.7%, lower than the same period a year ago, but remained 4.0 mb, or 1.8%, higher than the latest five-year average. The build came mainly from lower gasoline demand, which declined by around 100,000 b/d, to average 9.1 mb/d. Higher gasoline production also contributed to a build in gasoline inventories.

Distillate stocks also rose by 15.0 mb in December, ending the month at 159.4 mb. At this level, they indicated a surplus of 23.4 mb, or 17.2%, from the same period a year ago, and stood 17 mb, or 11.9%, above the latest five-year average. The build in middle distillate stocks was driven by lower demand; they declined by around 300,000 b/d, to average 3.5 mb/d.

Jet fuel stocks rose by 2.1 mb, ending December at 40.2 mb. At this level, jet fuel stocks stood 2.7 mb, or 7.1%, higher than the same month a year ago, and were 0.4 mb, or 1.0%, below the latest five-year average. In contrast, residual fuel oil inventories fell by 1.4 mb to 42.1 mb, which was 8.4 mb, or 25.0%, higher than the previous year over the same period and 5.9 mb, or 16.2%, above the seasonal norm.

Japan
In Japan, total commercial oil stocks fell slightly by 0.7 mb in November to stand at 168.3 mb. At this level, Japanese commercial oil stocks stood at 3.6 mb, or 2.1%, below a year ago at the same time, and 2.7 mb, or 1.6%, below the five-year average. Within the components, crude stocks went down by 0.9 mb, while product stocks rose by 0.2 mb.

Japanese commercial crude oil stocks fell in November to stand at 98.5 mb. With this drop, they were 6.9 mb, or 6.4%, below a year ago at the same time, but remained 2.2 mb, or 2.3%, above the seasonal norm. The drop in crude oil stocks was driven by higher crude throughput, which increased by about 141,000 b/d, or 4.5%, to average 3.2 mb/d. Higher crude oil imports limited a further drop in crude oil stocks. Indeed, crude oil imports rose by around 140,000 b/d, or 4.4%, in November from the previous month to stand at 3.3 mb/d, which was 6.0% higher than a year ago at the same time.

In contrast, Japan’s total product inventories rose by 0.2 mb in November reversing the fall of the previous month. At 69.8 mb, product stocks stood 5.8 mb, or 7.6%, below the same time a year ago, showing a deficit of 5.1 mb, or 6.8%, with the five-year average. The build was driven mainly by higher refinery output, which rose by around 80,000 b/d, or 2.7%, to stand at 3.03 mb/d. The increase in domestic sales limited a further build in product inventories. Indeed, domestic sales rose by nearly 90,000 b/d, averaging 3.04 mb/d, but remained 6.9% below a year ago at the same time. Within products, the picture was mixed; gasoline and distillate oil stocks rose, while residual fuel oil and naphtha experienced stock draws.

Gasoline stocks rose by 0.3 mb in November, ending the month at 10.5 mb. At this level, they indicated a surplus of 0.1 mb, or 0.7%, with the same time a year ago, but are 1.7 mb, or 14.3%, below the latest five-year average. This build was driven mainly by lower gasoline sales, which declined by 3.1%.

Distillate stocks also rose by 0.9 mb in November to stand at 34.2 mb. At this level, they were 2.3 mb, or 6.4%, below the same period a year ago and 1.4 mb, or 3.9%, below the seasonal average. Within distillate components, jet fuel and kerosene inventories rose by 4.4% and 5.5% respectively, while gasoil stocks fell by 4.6%.

In contrast, total residual fuel oil stocks fell by 0.4 mb in November to stand at 15.0 mb, which was 1.1 mb, or 7.0%, below a year ago and 0.6 mb, or 4.0%, lower than the latest five-year average. Within the fuel oil components, fuel oil A rose by 2.7% on the back of lower domestic sales, while fuel B.C stocks fell by 5.1%, driven by higher exports.

Naphtha inventories also fell by 0.5 mb in November to stand at 10.0 mb, which was 2.4 mb, or 19.3%, below a year ago at the same time and 1.4 mb, or 12.0%, less than the seasonal norm. This fall was driven mainly by lower output combined with higher domestic sales.

China
The latest information for China showed a slight increase in total commercial oil inventories of 0.7 mb in November, following a 23.5 mb stock draw in the previous month. At 378.9 mb, Chinese oil inventories were around 4.5 mb below the previous year at the same time. Within the components, crude commercial oil fell by 1.8 mb, while product inventories rose by 2.5 mb.

At 245.2 mb, commercial crude stocks represented a deficit of around 15.0 mb with the same period one year earlier. The fall in crude oil commercial stocks could be attributed to lower crude output, which declined by 2.4%. However, higher crude oil imports, which increased by 8.0%, limited a further drop in crude oil stocks.

Total product stocks in China rose by 2.5 mb, reversing the stock draw of the previous three months to stand at 133.7 mb. With this stock build, product stocks were 10.6 mb higher than a year ago at the same time. Within products the picture was mixed; gasoline stocks went up, while diesel and kerosene witnessed stock draws.

Gasoline inventories rose by 4.5 mb in November to stand at 56.3 mb, leaving them 0.7 mb higher than a year ago at the same time. The build in gasoline stocks was driven mainly by lower demand as cold weather and rains dampened vehicle usage. In contrast, diesel and kerosene stocks fell by 1.2 mb and 0.8 mb, ending the month of November at 63.1 mb and 14.4 mb, respectively. This fall came on the back on high demand.

Singapore and Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA)
At the end of November, product stocks in Singapore rose by 1.7 mb, reversing the drop of 3.1 mb in October. At 52.0 mb, product stocks in Singapore were 12.3 mb or 31.1% above the same period a year ago. Within products, the picture was mixed.

Light distillate stocks rose by 2.7 mb to stand at 13.2 mb, which was 1.9 mb, or 16.8%, below the previous year at the same time. Residual fuel oil stocks also rose by 0.4 mb in November to end the month at 26.9 mb, which was 8.8 mb, or 48.5%, higher than at the same time a year ago. The build in fuel oil stocks could be attributed to higher imports. In contrast, middle distillate stocks fell by 1.3 mb, finishing the month of November at 11.9 mb, which was 1.7 mb, or 16.3%, above the same time a year ago. The drop was mainly driven by high demand.

Product stocks in Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) rose by 1.2 mb in November, following a stock draw of 2.4 mb in October to stand at 48.5 mb. At this level, product stocks are 15.0 mb, or 44.1%, higher than at the same time a year ago. With the exception of a stock draw in gasoline, all other products witnessed builds.

Gasoline fell by 1.0 mb for the third consecutive month, ending November at 26.9 mb, which was 2.3 mb, or 63%, higher than the same month one year ago. In contrast, gasoil and fuel oil stocks rose by 1.0 mb and 0.9 mb, respectively. At 26.9 mb, gasoil stocks remained 8.1 mb, or 43.4%, above the previous year at the same time. Fuel oil stocks stood at 7.8 mb, indicating a surplus of 3.3 mb, or 75%, above a year ago.

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