Balance of Supply and Demand - February 2016

Source: OPEC_RP160212 2/11/2016, Location: Europe

Demand for OPEC crude in 2015 was revised down by 0.1 mb/d from the previous report to stand at 29.8 mb/d, which is 0.1 mb/d lower than a year earlier. The global oversupply for 2015 is estimated at 2.0 mb/d. In 2016, the demand for OPEC crude is projected at 31.6 mb/d, unchanged from the last report, and around 1.8 mb/d higher than the previous year. Demand for OPEC crude is expected to improve in 2H16, reaching 32.70 mb/d in 3Q16, as a further indication towards a balanced market.

Estimate for 2015
Demand for OPEC crude for 2015 was revised down by 0.1 mb/d from the previous month to stand at 29.8 mb/d, representing an increase of 0.1 mb/d from the previous year. Within the quarters, 4Q15 was revised down by 0.3 mb/d, while the other quarters remained unchanged. This downward revision reflects mainly the upward adjustment in non-OPEC supply as world oil demand remained unchanged. 1Q15 fell by 0.7 mb/d, while 2Q15 grew by 0.2 mb/d. 3Q15 and 4Q15 rose by 0.1 mb/d and 0.7 mb/d, respectively, versus the same quarters a year earlier.

Forecast for 2016
Demand for OPEC crude for 2016 remained unchanged from the previous month. Within the quarters, 4Q16 was revised down by 0.1 mb/d, while the other quarters remained unchanged. The demand for OPEC crude for this year is projected to increase by 1.8 mb/d to average 31.6 mb/d. 1Q16 and 2Q16 are expected to increase by 1.5 mb/d and 1.7 mb/d, respectively, while 3Q16 and 4Q16 are projected to increase by 2.1 mb/d and 1.6 mb/d, respectively.




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