Gulf Oil and Gas accountACCOUNT

World Oil Supply - Dec 07

Source: OPEC_RP071202 12/14/2007, Location: Europe

Forecast for 2007
Non-OPEC supply in 2007 is expected to increase by 0.72 mb/d over the downward revised figure for 2006 to reach a level of 49.62 mb/d, following a downward revision of 103 tb/d compared with last month’s assessment. Downward revisions were made to USA, Canada, UK, Australia, Vietnam, Brazil and Russia partially offset by minor upward revisions in other countries. The third and fourth quarters witnessed significant downward revisions of around 197 tb/d and 179 tb/d respectively, while the first and second quarters have been revised down by 24 tb/d and 10 tb/d respectively. On a quarterly basis, non-OPEC supply now stands at 49.79 mb/d, 49.52 mb/d, 49.08 mb/d and 50.08 mb/d. Figures for 2006 have been revised down slightly by around 11 tb/d to 48.9 mb/d.

OECD
Total OECD oil supply in 2007 is expected to reach 20.23 mb/d, an increase of around 43 tb/d over the previous year. On a quarterly basis, OECD oil supply is expected to average 20.47 mb/d, 20.25 mb/d, 19.86 mb/d and 20.36 mb/d respectively. The North American Group’s supply is estimated to grow by 149 tb/d over the previous year to reach a level of around 14.39 mb/d. The OECD Pacific is also estimated to grow by around 67 tb/d over 2006 to reach a level of 0.63 mb/d in 2007. However, the Western Europe group is expected to decline significantly by around 173 tb/d compared to last year reaching a level of 5.21 mb/d in 2007. Most of the supply loss in this group is attributed to Mexico, Norway and UK which are estimated to decline by around 162 tb/d, 221 tb/d and 57 tb/d respectively.

USA
Oil supply in the USA is expected to reach a level of 7.49 mb/d representing growth of 136 tb/d over 2006 and a minor downward revision of 12 tb/d from our last assessment. Minor third quarter downward revision of 48 tb/d has been made due to the release of actual data. On a quarterly basis, supply figures stand at 7.46 mb/d, 7.58 mb/d, 7.45 mb/d and 7.47 mb/d respectively. The preliminary figure for November of 7.47 is in line with our current fourth quarter forecast.

Mexico and Canada
Canadian oil supply for 2007 is expected to average 3.37 mb/d, an increase of around 174 tb/d over the previous year and a downward revision of 10 tb/d. The 2006 figures has been revised upward slightly by around 2 tb/d. The downward revision was due to a fire at one of Syncrude units which may take around 60 tb/d out of 350 tb/d from the December production. The fourth quarter has been revised downward by 22 tb/d and extended up to the end of the year 2008. On a quarterly basis, oil supply stands at 3.34 mb/d, 3.28 mb/d, 3.37 mb/d and 3.49 mb/d respectively. The preliminary November figure of 3.46 mb/d seems to be close to the current 4Q07 forecast of around 3.49 mb/d.

Mexico’s oil supply is unchanged from last month’s assessment of 3.53 mb/d which represents a decline of 162 tb/d below last year. On a quarterly basis, Mexican oil supply stands at 3.58 mb/d, 3.59 mb/d, 3.45 mb/d and 3.50 mb/d respectively.

Western Europe
Oil supply in this group is expected to reach a level of around 5.21 mb/d, representing a decline of 173 tb/d from the 2006 figure and an increase of 12 tb/d over last month’s assessment. The upward revision, which was attributable to biofuel production in Western Europe, was partially offset by downward revisions to the UK and Denmark. On a quarterly basis, oil supply is expected at 5.52 mb/d, 5.19 mb/d, 4.96 mb/d and 5.18 mb/d respectively.

Norway
Norway’s production level remains unchanged from last month’s assessment, averaging around 2.56 mb/d which represents a significant decline of 221 tb/d below the 2006 figure. Shutdowns due to bad weather, precautionary measures and early, heavy and longer-than-normal maintenance, in addition to natural decline were behind the loss. The preliminary figure for November of 2.59 mb/d is almost at the same level as the current 4Q07 forecast of 2.58 mb/d.

UK’s production level for 2007 is now expected at 1.65 mb/d, a decline of 57 tb/d from the previous year and 5 tb/d from last month’s assessment. Quarterly figures now stand at 1.80 mb/d, 1.73 mb/d, 1.47 mb/d and 1.60 mb/d respectively. The preliminary figure for November is 1.70 mb/d, around 20 tb/d higher than the preliminary figure for October, while our current forecast for the fourth quarter stands at around 1.60 mb/d.

Asia Pacific
Oil supply in this group is expected to average 0.64 mb/d which represents an increase of 67 tb/d over the 2006 figure and a downward revision of 12 tb/d compared with last month’s assessment. On a quarterly basis, Asia Pacific oil supply expected to average 0.57 mb/d, 0.61 mb/d, 0.62 mb/d and 0.71 mb/d respectively.

Australia’s oil supply is expected to average 0.55 mb/d in 2007 which represents growth of 39 tb/d over last year’s figure and a downward revision of 16 tb/d compared to last month’s assessment. Downward revisions of around 45 tb/d and 20 tb/d respectively were made to the third and fourth quarters. A series of maintenance was behind the revisions which are partially offset by the early startup of Stybarrow field. The preliminary November figure for Australia’s oil supply is 0.56 mb/d.

New Zealand’s performance is expected to add 29 tb/d over 2006 figure to reach a level of around 80 tb/d. A minor upward revision of around 8 tb/d each has been made to the third and the fourth quarter resulting in an upward revision of 4 tb/d to the annual figure due to the improved performance of the Tui field.

Developing Countries
Oil supply in this group is expected to reach a production level of 10.99 mb/d which represents growth of 54 tb/d over last years’ figure and a downward revision of 41 tb/d compared with last month’s assessment. On a quarterly basis, DC oil supply is expected to average 10.98 mb/d, 10.94 mb/d, 10.94 mb/d and 11.12 mb/d respectively.

Other Asia group is expected to stay flat in 2007 at a level of around 2.71 mb/d, a downward revision of around 29 tb/d from last month’s assessment. On a quarterly basis, Other Asia oil supply is expected to average 2.72 mb/d, 2.70 mb/d, 2.71 mb/d and 2.72 mb/d respectively. Adjustments to Vietnam’s figures have been made throughout the year which resulted in a downward revision to the annual figure of around 43 tb/d. As more data have become available, the annual figure estimated to average around 0.35 mb/d. India and Malaysia witnessed some minor upward revisions of around 5 tb/d each.

Latin American oil supply is expected to average around 3.92 mb/d in 2007, representing growth of around 53 tb/d over 2006 and a downward revision of 23 tb/d compared with last month’s assessment. On a quarterly basis, output would average 3.89 mb/d, 3.89 mb/d, 3.90 mb/d and 3.99 mb/d respectively. Brazil is the only growth contributor with around 77 tb/d while other countries in the group partially offset this growth. In Brazil,the ramping up of Golfinho Mod-2 has been revised to match the latest data available, with a minor downward revision of around 11 tb/d being made to the annual figure. Trinidad & Tobago’s annual figure witnessed a downward revision of 12 tb/d.

The Africa group is expected to average around 2.69 mb/d in 2007 with growth of around 84 tb/d over the previous year, representing an upward revision of 7 tb/d from last month’s assessment. On a quarterly basis, oil supply from this group is expected to average 2.69 mb/d, 2.68 mb/d, 2.66 mb/d and 2.74 mb/d respectively.

FSU, Other Regions
Oil supply in the FSU is expected to average 12.55 mb/d in 2007 which represents growth of around 0.53 mb/d over the previous year and a downward revision of around 11 tb/d from last month’s assessment. On a quarterly basis, FSU supply is expected to average 12.50 mb/d, 12.44 mb/d, 12.48 mb/d and 12.75 mb/d respectively. Other Europe is expected to stay flat from 2006 at 0.15 mb/d, while China is grow by 82 tb/d to reach a level of around 3.78 mb/d in 2007, a downward revision of 28 tb/d from last month.

Russia
Russian oil supply is expected to reach 9.88 mb/d in 2007 which represents growth of around 227 tb/d with a quarterly distribution of 9.87 mb/d, 9.83 mb/d, 9.89 mb/d and 9.91 mb/d respectively. Minor changes were made due to the earlier Sakhlin-2 winter shut-down including some technical problems in the project.

Caspian
Oil supply in Kazakhstan is expected to grow by around 56 tb/d to reach a level of 1.36 mb/d, unchanged compared with last month’s assessment, with a quarterly distribution of 1.35 mb/d, 1.34 mb/d, 1.35 mb/d and 1.40 mb/d respectively.

Oil supply in Azerbaijan is expected to grow by around 238 tb/d to reach 0.89 mb/d in 2007, unchanged compared with last month’s assessment.

China
Oil supply in China is expected to average 3.78 mb/d representing growth of 82 tb/d over 2006. Downward revisions of around 42 tb/d and 71 tb/d were made to the third and fourth quarters resulting a minor downward revision to the annual figure of 28 tb/d since last month, due to the release of the actual Peng Lai phase-2 startup date which has pushed back its ramp up through 2008 in addition to the release of actual data. On a quarterly basis, China’s oil supply is expected to average 3.78 mb/d, 3.82 mb/d, 3.73 mb/d and 3.78 mb/d respectively.

Forecast for 2008
Non-OPEC supply is expected to average around 50.74 mb/d in 2008, an increase of 1.12 mb/d over last year and a downward revision of 15 tb/d from last month. On a quarterly basis, non- OPEC supply is expected to average 50.69 mb/d, 50.30 mb/d, 50.35 mb/d and 51.62 mb/d respectively.

OPEC natural gas liquids and non-conventional oils
OPEC NGLs and non-conventional oils are expected to average 4.39 mb/d in 2007, an increase of 0.33 mb/d over the previous year. In 2008, the annual figure may reach 4.91 mb/d, an increase of 0.52 mb/d over the forecast for the current year.

OPEC crude oil production
Total OPEC crude oil production averaged 31.45 mb/d in November, a decline of 131 tb/d from the October figure according to secondary sources. OPEC production (excluding Iraq) averaged 29.15 mb/d, representing a decline of 150 tb/d from the previous month. A significant decline of around 481 tb/d in the UAE due to announced maintenance in the Zakum field partially offset by significant increases of around 125 tb/d and 84 tb/d by Saudi Arabia and Angola with minor declines seen in Iran. Following its resumption of full membership in the Organization, Ecuador is now included in all OPEC figures.

World Oil Supply
Preliminary figures for the month of November indicate that world oil supply averaged 85.72 mb/d, almost the same level as in the previous month, with OPEC’s share at around 36.7%.The estimate is based on preliminary data for non-OPEC supply, estimates for OPEC NGLs and OPEC crude production from secondary sources.

FSU net exports of crude and products
Total FSU net oil exports are estimated to average 8.57 mb/d in 2007, an increase of 0.44 mb/d over the previous year. In 2008, total FSU net oil exports are forecast to reach 9.05 mb/d, an increase of 460 tb/d over the forecast for the previous year.

Current trends
Actual figures for September indicate that total crude exports from the FSU averaged 6.15 mb/d. The preliminary figures for October averaged 6.33 mb/d, a significant increase of 176 tb/d from the previous month. Russian pipeline exports in October declined by 114 tb/d. The CPC pipeline also witnessed an increase in exported volumes of 90 tb/d.

Financials and Investment News in Austria >>

Saudi Arabia >>  9/15/2019 - Oil prices could spike when markets open Monday as Saudi Arabia scrambles to repair damage to its energy infrastructure inflicted. About 5.7 million b...
Saudi Arabia >>  9/14/2019 - Saudi Aramco emergency crews contained fires at its plants in Abqaiq and Khurais, as a result of terrorist attacks with projectiles. These attacks res...

United States >>  9/11/2019 - Pemex announced today a series of measures intended to improve its financial condition. This operation considers a capital contribution from the Feder...
Mozambique >>  8/22/2019 - The board of directors of the Export-Import Bank of the United States (EXIM) voted to notify the U.S. Congress, pursuant to the EXIM charter, of its c...

United States >>  8/20/2019 - Mosman Oil and Gas Limited (MSMN) the oil exploration, development and production company, advises an update on the Champion Project. Currently Mosma...
Azerbaijan >>  1/29/2019 - SOCAR contributed AZN 1.65 billion to the State Budget for 2018. Compared with the previous year’s figures, the company's budget payments grew by AZN ...

Related Categories: Accounting, Statistics  Acquisitions and Divestitures  Asset Portfolio Management  Economics/Financial Analysis  General  Industrial Development  Insurance  Investment  Mergers and Acquisitions  Risk Management 

Related Articles: Accounting, Statistics  Acquisitions and Divestitures  Asset Portfolio Management  Economics/Financial Analysis  General  Insurance  Investment  Mergers and Acquisitions  Risk Management 


Austria Oil & Gas 1 >>  2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 |

More News

Related Links

00 AL AT BE BG CH CY CZ DE DK ES FI FR GR HR HU IE IT NL NO PL PT RO SE SI TR UK
Gulf Oil and Gas
Copyright © Universal Solutions All rights reserved. - Terms of Service - Privacy Policy.