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UK Oil Economy - June 2016

Source: OPEC 6/18/2016, Location: Europe

The most important question currently is certainly the effect a UK exit from the EU and the effect that this may have on the former’s economy. It seems somewhat obvious that the effect might by significantly negative in the short-term. However, it remains to be seen how British voters will decide.

The subject will certainly need close monitoring. In the meantime, the UK economy continues on a relatively healthy growth trajectory, while some softening in the economy is ongoing, due to the uncertainty about the 23 June referendum. Industrial production in April rose considerably after many months of weak output, growing by 1.6% y-o-y, compared to a decline of 0.3% y-o-y in March. International trade has continued declining this year, with exports falling again by 0.6% y-o-y in March, after a decline of 0.7% y-o-y in February.

This marks the seventh consecutive month of decline. The latest May PMI number for the manufacturing sector points at some improvement. It moved again above the growth indicating level of 50 to stand at 50.1 in May, after 49.4 in April. The services sector PMI increased to 53.5 in May, compared to 52.3 in April. The current 2016 GDP growth forecast reflects the current slowing underlying momentum and hence remains at 2.1%, just below the estimated growth of 2.2% in 2015.

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