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Stock Movements - August 2016

Source: OPEC_RP160811 8/10/2016, Location: Europe

OECD commercial oil stocks fell in June to stand at 3,045 mb, around 311 mb above the latest five-year average. Crude and products indicated a surplus of around 175 mb and 136 mb, respectively, above the seasonal norm. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks stood at 64.9 days, 6.0 days higher than the latest five-year average. Preliminary data for July shows that total commercial oil stocks in the US rose by 14.5 mb to stand at 1,390 mb, around 116 mb above the same period a year ago and 242 mb higher than the latest fiveyear average. Within components, crude stocks fell by 1.8 mb, while products rose by 16.3 mb. The latest information for China showed a drop of 3.1 mb in total commercial oil inventories in June to stand at 393.5 mb. Within components, crude stocks rose by 1.3 mb, while product inventories declined by 4.4 mb.

OECD
Preliminary data for June shows that total OECD commercial oil stocks fell by 28.9 mb to stand at 3,045 mb, around 138 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 311 mb above the latest five-year average. Within components, crude and products both fell, by 15.0 mb and 13.9 mb, respectively. OECD commercial stocks saw their build slow since the beginning of the year; during the first half of the year the OECD only added 30 mb, compared with 170 mb during the same time a year ago.

OECD commercial crude stocks ended June at 1,531 mb, standing 47 mb above the same time one year earlier and more than 175 mb higher than the latest five-year average. Stocks in OECD North America and OECD Europe experienced a drop, while OECD Asia Pacific stocks saw a build.

OECD product inventories also fell in June by 13.9 mb to stand at 1,514 mb. At this level, product inventories stood 91 mb higher than a year ago at the same time and were 136 mb above the seasonal norm. All OECD regions experienced a drop.

In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell in June by around one day to stand at 64.9 days. At this level, they were 2.6 days above the previous year in the same period and 6.0 days higher than the latest five-year average. Within the regions, OECD Americas saw 6.2 more days of forward cover than the historical average, to stand at 63.7 days in June. OECD Asia Pacific stood 4.4 days above the seasonal average to finish the month at 57.2 days. At the same time, OECD Europe indicated a surplus of 6.3 days above the seasonal norm, averaging 71.3 days.

Commercial stocks in OECD Americas fell in June for the second month by 21.7 mb to stand at 1,602 mb, representing a surplus of 64 mb above a year ago and 201 mb higher than the seasonal norm. Within components, crude and product stocks fell by 16.1 mb and 5.6 mb, respectively.

Crude commercial oil stocks in OECD Americas fell at the end of June, ending the month at 837 mb, which was 35 mb above the same time one year ago, and 130 mb above the latest five-year average. The fall in crude stocks came from lower domestic production combined with higher crude runs at this time of the year. US domestic crude production declined by 180,000 b/d one month ago to below 8.7 mb/d for the first time in two years.

Product stocks in OECD Americas also declined by 5.6 mb, ending June at 764 mb. Despite this drop, they indicated a surplus of 30 mb above the same time one year ago and were 71 mb higher than the seasonal norm. Higher inland consumption contributed to the decline in product inventories.

OECD Europeís commercial stocks fell by 6.8 mb in June, ending the month at 1,009 mb. At this level, they were 69 mb higher than the same time a year ago and 93 mb above the latest five-year average. Both crude and product stocks fell, by 2.1 mb and 4.7 mb, respectively.

OECD Europeís commercial crude stocks fell in June, ending the month at 425 mb, 8.3 mb above the same period a year earlier and 27 mb higher than the latest five-year average. The drop in Juneís crude oil stocks could be attributed to higher refinery runs compared with May, as strikes in France left throughput levels particularly low.

OECD Europeís commercial product stocks also fell by 4.7 mb to end June at 585 mb, which is 61 mb higher than a year ago at the same time and 66 mb higher than the seasonal norm. The fall was mainly driven by higher refinery output.

OECD Asia Pacific commercial oil stocks fell by 6.8 mb in June, reversing the build of the previous two months. At 434 mb, they were 4.4 mb higher than a year ago and 18 mb above the five-year average. Within the components, crude rose by 3.2 mb, while products fell by 3.6 mb. Crude inventories ended the month at 268 mb, indicating a surplus of 4.2 mb above a year ago and 18.2 mb above the seasonal norm. OECD Asia Pacificís total product inventories ended June at 165 mb, standing almost in line with the same time a year ago and the seasonal norm.

EU plus Norway
Preliminary data for June shows a total European stock draw of 6.8 mb, reversing the previous monthís build of 11.6 mb to stand at 1,165 mb. At this level, they are 52.3 mb, or 4.7%, above the same time a year ago and 88.5 mb, or 8.2%, higher than the latest five-year average. Crude and product stocks declined by 2.1 mb and 4.7 mb, respectively.

European crude inventories declined in June, reversing the stock build of the previous month to stand at 494.4 mb. This was 0.3 mb, or 0.1%, above the same period a year ago, and 23.2 mb, or 4.9%, higher than the seasonal norm. The drop in crude oil stocks came as refinery crude runs rose to 10.06 mb/d in June from 9.66 mb/d in May when a combination of seasonal declines and strikes left throughput levels particularly low.

European product stocks also fell, ending June at 670.9 mb. At this level, they were 52.1 mb, or 4.7%, above the same time a year ago, and 88.5 mb, or 8.2%, above the seasonal norm. All products experienced a stock draw, with the exception of naphtha.

Gasoline stocks fell by 2.1 mb in June to stand at 122.3 mb. Despite this stock draw, they were 2.1 mb, or 14.7%, above a year earlier, and 15.6 mb, or 14.6%, higher than the seasonal norm. The fall in gasoline stocks could be driven by higher demand in the region, along with higher exports to the region.

Distillate stocks also fell by 1.2 mb in June to stand at 443.2 mb. At this level, they were 29.9 mb, or 7.2%, higher than the same time one year ago and 56.3 mb, or 14.5%, above the latest five-year average. The fall in distillate stocks came from lower distillate supply combined with strong demand, mainly in Germany.

Residual fuel oil stocks declined by 1.8 mb in June to stand at 80.7 mb. At this level, they stood 6.1 mb, or 8.2%, above the same month a year ago, but remained 2.7 mb, or 3.3%, lower than the latest five-year average. The fall in residual fuel oil stocks was a result of higher fuel oil demand, especially in major EU bunkering markets.

US
Preliminary data for July shows that total commercial oil stocks in the US rose by 14.5 mb, reversing a drop of the previous month. At 1,389.7 mb, they were around 116.3 mb, or 9.1%, above the same period a year ago and 241.6 mb, or 21%, higher than the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude stocks fell by 1.8 mb, while products rose by 16.3 mb.

US commercial crude stocks fell in July for the second consecutive month to stand at 522.5 mb. At this level, they were 67.1 mb, or 14.7%, above the same time one year ago and 140.0 mb, or 36.6%, above the latest five-year average. The fall in crude stocks came from lower domestic production, combined with higher crude runs at this time of the year. Indeed, US crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.7 mb/d in July, around 200,000 b/d higher than the previous month. This corresponds to a refinery utilization rate of about 92.6%, or about 0.9 percentage points (pp) higher than the previous month. In July, crude commercial inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma, stood at 64.1 mb, slightly lower than the previous month.

In contrast, total product stocks rose by 16.3 mb in July for the fourth consecutive month to stand at 867.2 mb. At this level, US product stocks were around 49.2 mb, or 6.0%, above the level seen at the same time a year ago, showing a surplus of 102 mb, or 14.5%, above the seasonal norm. Within products, the picture was mixed. Distillates, other unfinished products and jet fuel inventories witnessed the bulk of the stock build, while gasoline and residual fuel oil experienced a drop.

Distillate stocks rose by 4.2 mb in July, ending the month at 153.2 mb, indicating a surplus of 11 mb, or 7.7%, from the same period a year ago to stand 17.5 mb, or 12.9%, above the latest five-year average. The build in middle distillate stocks came mainly on reduced demand, which declined by more than 200,000 b/d to average 3.7 mb/d.

Jet fuel stocks also rose by 0.8 mb, ending July at 41.1 mb. At this level, jet fuel stocks stood 2.6 mb or 6.0% below the same period one year ago and were 0.5 mb or 1.3% higher than the latest five-year average.

In contrast, gasoline stocks fell by 0.7 mb to end the month of July at 238.2 mb, remaining 20.1 mb or 9.2% above the same period a year ago, and 21.4 mb, or 9.9%, above the latest five-year average. The fall in gasoline stocks came mainly from lower gasoline imports. Higher demand at this time of the year contributed to a further decline in gasoline inventories.

Residual fuel oil inventories also fell by 1.8 mb to 38.3 mb in July, slightly lower than the same period a year ago, but remained at 0.9 mb, or 2.5%, above the seasonal norm.

Japan
In Japan, total commercial oil stocks rose by 5.6 mb in June for the third consecutive month to stand at 161.4 mb. With this build, Japanese commercial oil inventories stood at 2.9 mb, or 1.9%, above a year ago at the same time, but are 6.9 mb, or 4.1%, below the five-year average. Within components, crude and product stocks rose by 2.7 mb and 3.0 mb, respectively.

In June, Japanese commercial crude oil stocks rose to end the month at 95.8 mb, which is 1.9 mb, or 2.0%, below a year ago at the same time, and 6.5 mb, or 6.4%, below the seasonal norm. The build in crude stocks came on the back of lower crude throughput, which declined by 153,000 b/d, or 4.9%, to stand at 3.0 mb/d. A fall in crude oil imports of 190,000 b/d, or 5.8%, to average 3.1 mb/d limited a further build in crude oil stocks.

Japanís total product inventories also rose by 3.0 mb in June, to end the month at 65.6 mb. At this level, product stocks stood 4.9 mb, or 8.0%, above the same time a year ago, and showed a small deficit of 0.4 mb, or 0.6%, with the five-year average. Within products, the picture was mixed; distillate stocks experienced builds, while gasoline, naphtha and residual fuel oil inventories witnessed a drop.

Distillate stocks rose by 1.0 mb in June to stand at 27.9 mb, which was 2.5 mb, or 10%, above the same period a year ago and almost in line with the seasonal average. Within distillate components, jet fuel and gasoil inventories fell by 12.5% and 8.0%, respectively, while kerosene rose by 8.8%. A fall in jet fuel and gasoil stocks came on the back of lower output, declining by 5.1% and 4.3%, respectively. The build in kerosene was driven by a sharp reduction in domestic consumption, which declined by nearly 33% from the previous month.

In contrast, gasoline stocks fell by 0.4 mb to end June at 10.6 mb, which is 0.4 mb, or 3.4%, below the same time a year ago and 1.6 mb, or 13.2%, below the latest five-year average. This fall in gasoline stocks was mainly driven by lower gasoline output, which fell by 11.8%. Higher gasoline demand also contributed to this stock draw.

Naphtha inventories also fell by 2.5 mb, ending June at 9.1 mb. At this level, they were 2.5 mb, or 24%, lower than a year ago at the same time, and 1.7 mb, or 16.0%, higher than the seasonal norm. This fall was driven by higher domestic sales, up by nearly 3%. Lower output, down by 6.7%, also contributed to the stock draw of naphtha.

Total residual fuel oil stocks also fell by 0.2 mb in June, to stand at 12.8 mb, which was 0.4 mb, or 3.4%, higher than a year ago but 2.1 mb, or 14.2%, lower than the latest five-year average. Within fuel oil components, fuel oil A fell by 0.6%, while fuel B.C rose by 5.3%. The fall in fuel oil A stocks came from lower output, which declined by nearly 5% from the previous month. The build in fuel oil B.C stocks was due to higher output, which rose by 15%.

China
The latest information for China showed a drop of 3.1 mb in total commercial oil inventories in June to stand at 393.5 mb. At this level, Chinese commercial oil inventories were 18.4 mb lower than the previous year at the same time. Within components, crude stocks rose by 1.3 mb, while product inventories fell by 4.4 mb. In June, commercial crude stocks rose to 231.1 mb, or 23.2 mb below the previous year at the same time. The build in crude oil commercial stocks could be attributed to higher domestic crude production, as crude runs dipped in June.

Total product stocks in China fell by 4.4 mb in June, ending the month at 161.1 mb, 1.9 mb lower than a year ago at the same time. Within products, gasoline and diesel stocks dropped, while kerosene stocks saw builds.

Diesel stocks fell by 4.9 mb for the fourth consecutive month, ending June at 71.1 mb. Chinese diesel stocks were 19.5 mb lower than a year ago in the same period. This fall was driven mainly by higher exports amid a reduction in diesel yield.

Gasoline stocks also dropped by 0.4 mb in June, the first fall in fourth months. At 70.1 mb, gasoline stocks are 13.7 mb above a year ago at the same time. This was driven mainly by higher exports, along with stronger apparent demand on the back of higher car sales in the country.

In contrast, kerosene stocks rose by 0.8 mb ending June at 19.9, which is 3.9 mb higher than the previous year at the same time.

Singapore and Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA)
At the end of June, product stocks in Singapore fell by 7.5 mb, reversing the build of the previous month to stand at 50.3 mb. At this level, they were 2.9 mb, or 6.1%, above the same period a year ago. All products experienced drops.

Residual fuel oil stocks fell by 5.5 mb, reversing the build of the last two months and ending the month of June at 25.6 mb. At this level, they were 0.3 mb, or 1.0%, less than at the same time a year ago. The drop in fuel oil stocks did not lead to any supply constraints in the trading hub, as there is plenty of shipping and industrial fuel stored offshore in tankers. Light distillate stocks fell by 1.7 mb, ending the month of June at 13.2 mb, which was 1.0 mb, or 8.4%, above the same time a year ago. Middle distillate stocks also fell by 0.3 mb to end June at 11.6 mb, which was 1.6 mb, or 16.1%, above the previous year at the same time.

Product stocks in Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) fell slightly by 0.2 mb to end June at 47.2 mb; this is 2.1 mb, or 4.6%, higher than the same time a year ago. Within products the picture was mixed. Fuel oil, gasoil and jet oil saw draws, while gasoline showed a stock build.

Gasoil fell by 1.0 mb in June for the third consecutive month to stand at 23.1 mb, which is 0.8 mb, or 3.4%, below the previous year at the same time. A decline in middle distillate stocks could be attributed to higher domestic demand in the European region. Fuel oil stocks also fell by 0.5 mb in June to stand at 7.1 mb, which was 0.8 mb, or 11.7%, higher than a year ago. This fall was driven by higher exports, mainly to Asia region. In contrast, gasoline rose by 1.8 mb, ending June at 10.4 mb, which was 2.9 mb, or around 39% above the same month the previous year.

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