Caspian Oil Supply - August 2016

Kazakhstan’s oil supply is expected to decrease by 50 tb/d over the previous year to average 1.55 mb/d in 2016, revised down by 10 tb/d from the previous MOMR. Kazakhstan’s oil production in May dropped to 1.46 mb/d, but recovered in June by 100 tb/d to average 1.56 mb/d after seasonal maintenance in Karachaganak was ended. Across 2H15 and 1H16, Kazakh oil production was stagnant at 1.56 mb/d, although it declined by 80 tb/d compared to the average output of 1.63 mb/d in 1H15.

Azerbaijan’s oil supply is anticipated to average 0.85 mb/d, remaining unchanged from the previous MOMR and indicating a minor contraction of 10 tb/d in 2016. Azeri crude oil output in June decreased by 10 tb/d to average 0.86 mb/d, following a decline of 10 tb/d in May. Nevertheless, total oil production (crude plus NGLs) was pegged at 0.87 mb/d in 1H16, the same as 1H15, but higher by 20 tb/d than 2H15.

Oil supply in FSU others, mainly in Turkmenistan, is expected to decline by 10 tb/d y-o-y to average 0.38 mb/d, unchanged from last month’s estimation.

Other Europe’s oil supply is estimated to remain flat from 2012 to average 0.14 mb/d and continue at this level in 2016.