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Stock Movements - September 2016

Source: OPEC_RP160911 9/12/2016, Location: Europe

OECD commercial oil stocks fell in July to stand at 3,091 mb. This is around 341 mb above the latest five-year average. Crude and products indicated a surplus of around 200 mb and 141 mb, respectively, above the seasonal norm. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks stood at 66.1 days, which is 6.8 days higher than the latest five-year average.

Preliminary data for August shows that total commercial oil stocks in the US rose slightly by 1.2 mb, At 1,391 mb, inventories were around 238 mb higher than the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude stocks fell by 11.2 mb, while products rose by 12.4 mb. The latest information for China showed a drop in July of 3.1 mb in total commercial oil inventories, to stand at 381.1 mb. Within the components, crude fell by 13.3 mb, while products inventories rose by 0.8 mb.

OECD
Preliminary data for July shows that total OECD commercial oil stocks fell by 2.1 mb to stand at 3,091 mb. At this level, OECD commercial oil stocks were around 176 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 341 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude fell by 8.9 mb, while products rose by 6.8 mb. OECD commercial stocks have indicated a slowing build since the beginning of this year. The difference with the five-year average reached nearly 380 mb at the end of February, before slowing down to about 340 mb at the end of July 2016.

OECD commercial crude stocks ended July at 1,544 mb, standing 64 mb above the same time one year earlier and more than 200 mb higher than the latest five-year average. OECD North America experienced a drop, while OECD Europe and OECD Pacific experienced builds.

In contrast, OECD product inventories rose by 6.8 mb to stand at 1,547 mb. At this level, products inventories stood 112 mb higher than the same time a year ago, and were 141 mb above the seasonal norm. Within the various OECD regions, all experienced a build.

In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks rose in July by 0.2 days to stand at 66.1 days. At this level, they were 3.3 days above the same period the previous year and 6.8 days higher than the latest five-year average. Within the regions, OECD Americas had 7.8 days more days of forward cover than the historical average to stand at 65.7 days in July. OECD Asia Pacific stood 4.1 days above the seasonal average to finish July at 57.1 days. At the same time, OECD Europe indicated a surplus of 6.3 days above the seasonal norm, averaging 71.4 days in July.

Commercial stocks in OECD Americas fell by 2.7 mb in July to stand at 1,642 mb. At this level, they represented a surplus of 100 mb above a year ago and were 232 mb higher than the seasonal norm. Within the components, crude stocks fell by 6.1 mb, while products stocks rose by 3.4 mb.

At the end of July, crude commercial oil stocks in OECD Americas fell, ending the month at 857 mb, which was 53 mb above the same time one year ago, and 157 mb above the latest five-year average. The fall in crude stocks oil came from lower domestic production, which declined by around 100,000 b/d to stand at 8.69 mb/d. Higher US crude runs also contributed to the drop in US crude stocks.

In contrast, product stocks in OECD Americas rose by 3.4 mb, ending July at 785 mb. At this level, they indicated a surplus of 47 mb above the same time one year ago, and were 76 mb higher than the seasonal norm. Lower consumption in US demand in July from the previous month contributed to the build in products inventories.

OECD Europeís commercial stocks rose slightly by 0.2 mb in July, ending the month at 1,008 mb. At this level, they were 74 mb higher than the same time a year ago and 92 mb above the latest five-year average. Both crude inventories rose slightly by 0.1 mb.

OECD Europeís commercial crude stocks rose slightly by 0.1 mb, ending the month at 424 mb, and were 17 mb above the same period a year earlier and 38 mb higher than the latest five-year average. The build in Julyís crude oil stocks could be attributed to higher production from the North Sea.

OECD Europeís commercial products stocks also rose by 0.1 mb to end July at 584 mb. At this level, OECD Europeís commercial products stocks were 58 mb higher than the same time a year ago, and 60 mb higher than the seasonal norm. The small build could be attributed to lower demand in the region.

OECD Asia Pacific commercial oil stocks rose by 0.4 mb in July for the third consecutive month. At 441 mb, they were 2.1 mb higher than a year ago and 16 mb above the five-year average. Within the components, crude fell by 2.9 mb, while products stocks rose by 3.3 mb.

In July, crude inventories ended the month at 263 mb, indicating a deficit of 5.5 mb below a year ago, and are 10.4 mb above the seasonal norm. OECD Asia Pacificís total products inventories ended July at 178 mb, standing 7.7 mb higher than the same time a year ago and 5.8 mb above the seasonal norm.

EU plus Norway
Preliminary data for July shows total European stocks drop slightly by 0.6 mb following a stock draw of 13.2 mb in June. At 1,158.2 mb, they are 51.9 mb, or 4.7%, above the same time a year ago and 80.6 mb, or 7.5%, higher than the latest five-year average. Crude rose slightly by 0.1 mb, while total products stocks fell by 0.7 mb.

European crude inventories rose slightly in July, reversing the stock draw of the previous month to stand at 493.0 mb. This was 2.2 mb, or 0.5%, above the same period a year ago, and 24.8 mb, or 5.3%, higher than the seasonal norm. The slight increase in crude oil stocks could derive from higher North Sea output, which offset the rise in crude throughput. Indeed, in July EU-16 refineries processed an average of 10.4 mb/d, which was 40,000 b/d higher than in the previous month.

In contrast, European products stocks fell, ending July at 665.1 mb. At this level, they were 49.6 mb, or 8.1%, above the same time a year ago, and 55.7 mb, or 9.1%, above the seasonal norm. All products, with the exception of distillates, witnessed a stock draw.

Distillate stocks rose by 1.1 mb in July to stand at 443.8 mb. At this level, they were 29.9 mb, or 7.2%, higher than the same time one year ago and 52.3 mb, or 13.4%, above the latest five-year average. The fall in distillate stocks came from lower distillate demand, which fell by nearly 30,000 b/d putting the year-to-date up by only 50,000 b/d.

In contrast, gasoline stocks fell by 0.7 mb in July to stand at 119.4 mb. Despite this stock draw, they were 14.9 mb, or 14.3%, above a year earlier, and 12.9 mb, or 12.1%, higher than the seasonal norm. The fall in gasoline stocks may have been driven by lower gasoline yields, mainly in French refineries. Higher demand in the region also contributed to the drop in distillate stocks.

Residual fuel oil stocks fell also by 0.7 mb in July to stand at 77.7 mb. At this level, they stood 2.5 mb, or 3.4%, above the same month a year ago but remained 6.1 mb, or 7.3%, lower than the latest five-year average. The fall in residual fuel oil stocks was a result of higher fuel oil demand, especially for marine bunkers.

US
Preliminary data for August shows that total commercial oil stocks in the US rose slightly by 1.2 mb, following a build of 4.3 mb in the previous month. At 1,390.9 mb, they were around 94.9 mb, or 7.3%, above the same period a year ago and 238.5 mb, or 21%, higher than the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude stocks fell by 11.2 mb, while products rose by 12.4 mb.

US commercial crude stocks fell in August for the third consecutive month to stand at 511.4 mb. At this level, they were 53.5 mb, or 11.7%, above the same time one year ago and 132.2 mb, or 34.9%, above the latest five-year average. The fall in crude stocks came from lower domestic production, which outpaced the decline in refinery inputs as well higher crude imports. In August, crude commercial inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma, stood at 63.4 mb, slightly higher than the previous month.

In contrast, total product stocks rose by 12.4 mb in August for the fifth consecutive month to stand at 879.6 mb. At this level, US product stocks were around 41.3 mb, or 4.9%, above the level seen at the same time a year ago, showing a surplus of 106.3 mb, or 14.9%, above the seasonal norm. Within products, the picture was mixed. Distillates, other unfinished products, jet fuel inventories and residual fuel oil stocks witnessed a build, while gasoline inventories experienced a large drop.

Distillate stocks rose by 5.0 mb in August, ending the month at 158.1 mb, indicating a surplus of 6 mb, or 3.9%, from the same period a year ago to stand 19.4 mb, or 14.0%, above the latest five-year average. The build in middle distillate stocks came mainly on higher output averaging more than 4.95 mb/d, while higher demand limited a further build.

Jet fuel stocks also rose by 0.8 mb, ending July at 41.8 mb. At this level, jet fuel stocks stood 1.3 mb or 2.9% below the same period one year ago and were 0.9 mb or 2.2% higher than the latest five-year average

Residual fuel oil inventories also rose by 1.3 mb to 39.6 mb in August, 1.3 mb or 0.9% lower than the same period a year ago, and 2.7 mb, or 7.3%, above the seasonal norm.

In contrast, gasoline stocks fell by 10.4 mb to end the month of August at 227.8 mb. At this level, they are 9.6 mb or 4.4% above the same period a year ago, and 15.7 mb, or 7.4%, above the latest five-year average. The fall in gasoline stocks came mainly on the back of stronger demand reaching 9.7 mb/d, the highest in seven years.

Japan
In Japan, total commercial oil stocks rose slightly by 0.4 mb in July for the third consecutive month, to stand at 155.8 mb. At this level, Japanese commercial oil inventories stood at 11.7 mb, or 7.0%, less than the same time a year ago and are 14.5 mb or 8.5% below the five-year average. Within the components, crude stocks went down 2.9 mb, while products stocks rose by 3.3 mb.

In July, Japanese commercial crude oil stocks fell, ending the month at 93.4 mb, which is 9.9 mb, or 9.6%, below the same period a year ago, and 8.2 mb, or 8.1%, below the seasonal norm. The fall in crude stocks came on the back of higher crude throughput, which rose by 180,000 b/d, or 6.0%, to stand at 3.14 mb/d. The slight increase in crude oil imports by 12,000 b/d, or 0.4%, to average 3.1 mb/d limited further build in crude oil stocks.

In contrast, Japanís total products inventories rose by 3.3 mb in July, ending the month at 62.3 mb. At this level, products stocks stood 1.8 mb, or 2.8 %, above the same time a year ago and showed a deficit of 6.3 mb, or 9.1%, with the five-year average. Within products, the picture was mixed. Distillate stocks and naphtha experienced builds, while gasoline and residual fuel oil inventories witnessed a drop.

Distillate stocks rose by 3.4 mb in July to stand at 29.6 mb. At this level, they were 0.6 mb, or 2.2%, above the same period a year ago and are 0.6 mb, or 2.1%, below the seasonal average. Within distillate components, all the components saw builds. Jet fuel rose by 17.6% on the back of higher output and lower domestic sales. Kerosene and gasoil stocks also rose by 19% and 2.6%, respectively. This build came on the back of higher production. However, stronger domestic sales limited a further build.

Naphtha inventories also rose by 0.5 mb, ending July at 9.1 mb. At this level, they were 2.8 mb, or 23%, lower than a year ago at the same time and 1.6 mb, or 14.7%, higher than the seasonal norm. This build was driven by higher imports, which rose by nearly 40%. Lower output, which decreased by 4.8%, limited further build in naphtha inventories.

In contrast, gasoline stocks fell by 0.3 mb to end July at 10.6 mb. At this level, they were 0.9 mb, or 8.8%, above the same time a year ago but 1.5 mb, or 12.4%, below the latest five-year average. This fall in gasoline stocks was mainly driven by higher domestic sales, which increased by 13%. Higher gasoline output, which rose by 15%, limited the fall in gasoline stocks.

Total residual fuel oil stocks also fell by 0.3 mb in July to stand at 13.1 mb, which was 0.5 mb, or 3.7%, lower than a year ago and 2.6 mb, or 16.4%, lower than the latest five-year average. Within fuel oil components, fuel oil A rose by 1.7% on the back higher output, while fuel oil B.C stocks fell by 4.7%. The drop in fuel oil B.C inventories came on the back of higher demand, which rose by nearly 20%.

China
The latest information for China showed a drop of 12.5 mb in total commercial oil inventories in July to stand at 381.1 mb. At this level, Chinese commercial oil inventories were 39.8 mb lower than the previous year at the same time. Within the components, crude fell by 13.3 mb, while products inventories rose by 0.8 mb.

In July, commercial crude stocks fell to 219.1 mb, which is 33.5 mb below the previous year at the same time. The fall in crude oil commercial stocks could be attributed to higher crude throughput, which rose by 0.53%. Lower crude oil imports also contributed to this stock-draw.

Total products stocks in China rose slightly by 0.8 mb ending July at 161.9 mb. At this level, products stocks were 6.3 mb lower than the same time a year ago. Within products, gasoline and kerosene dropped, while diesel stocks saw builds.

Gasoline stocks went down by 1.5 mb in July to stand at 68.6 mb. At this level, gasoline stocks are 12.1 mb above the same time a year ago. This fall was driven mainly by higher gasoline demand due to increasing tourism activities along with higher consumption for air conditioning. Kerosene stocks also fell by 0.2 mb in July ending the month at 19.8 mb, but they remain 3.9 mb higher than the same period last year.

In contrast, diesel stocks rose by 2.5 mb, ending July at 73.6 mb, which is still 22.3 mb higher than the same time the previous year. This build was mainly driven by lower apparent demand.

Singapore and Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA)
At the end of July, products stocks in Singapore rose by 4.8 mb, reversing the fall of last month. At 55.2 mb, they were 3.4 mb, or 6.6%, above the same period a year ago. Within products, all products experienced a build.

Residual fuel oil stocks rose by 1.1 mb, reversing the drop of last month and ending July at 26.6 mb. At this level, they were 0.5 mb, or 1.8%, less than at the same time a year ago. The build in fuel oil stocks could be attributed to lower marine bunker demand in the region. Light distillate stocks also rose by 2.2 mb, ending the month of July at 15.3 mb, which was 3.4 mb, or 28.8%, above the same time a year ago. Middle distillate stocks also rose by 1.6 mb to end July at 26.6 mb, which was 0.5 mb, or 3.8%, above the previous year at the same time. The build was driven by lower diesel export to the region.

Products stocks in Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) rose slightly by 0.3 mb to end July at 47.5 mb. At this level, products stocks were 0.9 mb, or 1.8%, higher than at the same time a year ago. Within products, the picture was mixed: gasoil and jet oil saw builds, while fuel oil showed a stock draw. Gasoline remained flat versus last month.

Gasoline stocks were unchanged ending July at 10.5 mb. At this level, they were 1.0 mb, or 10.6%, above the previous year at the same time. Fuel oil stocks fell by 1.8 mb in July to stand at 5.4 mb, which was 0.4 mb, or 7.5%, lower than the same period a year ago. This fall was mainly driven by higher marine bunker demand in the region. In contrast, gasoil inventories rose by 1.0 mb ending July at 24.1 mb, which was 0.5 mb, or around 2.2%, above the same month the previous year.

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