Canada and Mexico Oil Supply - September 2016

Oil supply in Canada is expected to grow by 20 tb/d in 2016 to average 4.44 mb/d y-o-y, revised up by 20 tb/d from the previous month. Preliminary estimates by Canadian national sources reported a decline of 632 tb/d in May, with Canadian oil output lower m-o-m to average 3.58 mb/d due to the wildfire in the state of Alberta. In May, the output of oil sands declined by 0.60 mb/d to settle at 1.6 mb/d, while conventional oil and NGLs also declined by 19 tb/d and 20 tb/d to 1.16 mb/d and 0.81 mb/d, respectively. With regard to Canadian liquids output changes during the first five months of this year compared to the same period a year earlier, production of oil sands remained unchanged at 2.3 mb/d – mainly because Alberta also witnessed wildfires last year in the summer – but the output of conventional crude declined by 127 tb/d to average 1.21 mb/d in this time period. Meanwhile, NGLs production increased by 100 tb/d to average 0.84 mb/d. A higher oil supply by 40 tb/d is anticipated in 2H16 compared to 1H16.

Mexican liquids production in 2016 is expected to decline by 0.11 mb/d to average 2.48 mb/d – unchanged compared to the forecast a month ago. Crude oil output declined in July by 23 tb/d m-o-m to average 2.16 mb/d, but NGLs output remained steady at 0.32 mb/d. July’s output is the lowest level seen since October 1995. Mexican oil supply in 2Q16 declined by 60 tb/d y-o-y and a higher decline in 3Q is expected compared to the same period a year ago. The largest yearly decline to date came from Cantarel and Ku-Maloob-Zap (KMZ). Following steep declines in smaller fields and cuts in spending by state company Pemex, the plans are to shut down parts of the low profile oil fields.