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World Oil Supply - October 2016

Source: OPEC_RP161007 10/12/2016, Location: Not categorized

World liquids supply in September 2016 increased by 1.46 mb/d m-o-m to average 96.4 mb/d, and grew by 0.95 mb/d compared to a year ago. The share of OPEC in the monthly increase was only 15%, while non-OPEC producers, including OPEC NGLs, added 1.24 mb/d. This was due to some non-OPEC supply outages in 2Q16 coming back on stream, such as oil sands production that was shut down due to wildfires in Canada, a lower decline in the US following a rise in rig counts and well completion and the end of seasonal maintenance.

Non-OPEC oil supply in 2016 is estimated to see a contraction of 0.68 mb/d, a downward revision of 70 tb/d, to now average 56.30 mb/d. This was due to the downward adjustment of 135 tb/d in 2Q16, mainly in Canada, Russia and the US, as well as an upward revision of 60 tb/d to the 2015 baseline, mainly coming from the US. In contrast, non-OPEC oil supply growth in 2017 was revised up by 40 tb/d to average 0.24 mb/d y-o-y from the previous assessment, to settle at an average of 56.54 mb/d, mainly due to new projects coming on stream in Russia.

OPEC NGL production in 2016 and 2017 is forecast to grow by 0.16 mb/d and 0.15 mb/d, respectively, to average 6.29 mb/d and 6.43 mb/d. In September 2016, OPEC production increased by 0.22 mb/d to average 33.39 mb/d, according to secondary sources.

Non-OPEC supply
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2016 is now expected to contract by 0.68 mb/d, following a downward revision of around 70 tb/d from the September MOMR to average 56.30 mb/d. This was mainly due to the revision in the base line, driven by the upward revision to US supply in 2015. Downward revisions during 2Q16 by 135 tb/d were due to lower-than-expected oil production from the US, Canada, UK, Argentina, Turkmenistan, Russia, and Congo. Moreover, a preliminary downward revision by 31 tb/d was also adjusted with actual production data in 3Q16 coming from Canada, Mexico, the UK Brunei, Argentina, Colombia, Congo, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and China, which was partially offset by upward revisions for Other OECD Europe, Australia, India, Brazil, Africa other, Russia and Azerbaijan. Finally, all of the downward revisions were partially offset by a positive revision of 121 tb/d in 4Q16, mainly due to the upgraded Russian oil production forecast.

Overall preliminary indications by the end of 3Q16 show that non-OPEC supply declined by 0.71 mb/d compared to the same period a year earlier.

On a regional basis, OECD Americas, following growth of 0.98 mb/d in 2015 y-o-y, is expected to see a contraction in supply of 0.56 mb/d in 2016 y-o-y due to the strong impact of low oil prices on US tight oil production as well as Canadian conventional crude, although the unexpected event of the wildfires in Alberta, a heavy decline rate in mature fields and lack of investment in Mexico, have also affected oil output in this region, and to a lesser degree, in Latin America. Furthermore, Latin America’s supply was mostly impacted by fewer projects in Brazil and sabotage in Colombia. China was also impacted by fewer implemented projects, but only in 2016, while in other regions, supply was affected by different factors, which are only partially relevant to low oil prices. Surprisingly, despite the low oil price environment, oil production in some countries – Russia, Norway and the UK ? has increased so far.

Non-OPEC supply, following two consecutive months of q-o-q declines by 0.36 mb/d and 1.45 mb/d in 1Q16 and 2Q16, respectively, is expected to grow by 0.62 mb/d in 3Q16, q-o-q, mainly due to production recovery in Alberta. The forecast for 4Q16 shows another quarterly increase of 0.59 mb/d to average 56.69 mb/d, mainly due to new projects unexpectedly coming onstream in the FSU, the end of seasonal maintenance and traditionally higher seasonal production, for instance, in Canada. Nevertheless, non-OPEC supply in 2H16 is expected to be only 200 tb/d higher than 1H16, while in a typical supply pattern (for example as per historical data in 2013 or 2014), the second half was much higher than the first half of the year.

Non-OPEC supply, after the latest revisions this month, is forecast to continue to increase into 1Q17 at 56.78 mb/d and then decrease in 2Q17 to 56.28 mb/d. Higher output is expected in 4Q17 than in 1Q17.

OECD
Total OECD liquids production in 2016 is expected to contract by 0.51 mb/d to average 24.78 mb/d, revised down by 110 tb/d from the last MOMR, mostly due to the revision in the baseline, driven by the upward revision of 69 tb/d in the US. The production data and output forecast for the OECD countries in 2Q, 3Q, and 4Q16 was revised down mostly in Canada. Y-o-y contraction in 2016 is expected to come from OECD Americas by 0.56 mb/d and OECD Asia Pacific by 0.02 mb/d, while OECD Europe will grow by 0.07 mb/d.

OECD Americas
OECD Americas’ oil supply is estimated to average 20.51 mb/d, showing a contraction of 0.56 mb/d y-o-y and representing a downward revision of 120 tb/d from the last monthly report. This was mainly due to the revision in the baseline and lowerthan-expected output in Canada in 2Q16 and 3Q16. Liquids supply in the US, Canada and Mexico is expected to decline by 0.42 mb/d, 0.02 mb/d and 0.12 mb/d in 2016.

US
US total oil production is anticipated to decline by 0.42 mb/d to average 13.62 mb/d in 2016, representing a downward revision of 70 tb/d from the last monthly report. This downward revision was only due to the revision in the base line. The US liquids supply fell by 30 tb/d m-o-m to 13.56 mb/d in July, much less than the decline of 177 tb/d in June. US total crude oil production decreased by only 20 tb/d to 8.68 mb/d in July. Crude oil output in Texas declined by 11 tb/d to average 3.16 mb/d, while oil production in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) increased by 16 tb/d to average 1.56 mb/d. In Alaska, crude output declined by 32 tb/d to 0.44 mb/d, but production in North Dakota was steady at around 1 mb/d in July.

In Texas, total oil production from the Permian basin showed a decline of 8 tb/d m-o-m to average 1.97 mb/d in July 2016. The number of active rigs increased by 17 rigs to 162 rigs, and the production per rig reached 529 barrels per rig in July, according to the EIA’s Drilling Productivity Report (DPR). Oil output in the Eagle Ford during the same month declined by 65 tb/d m-o-m to average 1.14 mb/d, despite an increase of three rigs to reach a total of 36 rigs in July. Production efficiency at Eagle Ford saw monthly growth of 18 barrels to average 1,118 barrels per rig per day (the highest efficiency growth rate in US regional production). The rate in the Bakken region reached 832 barrels per rig per day, while crude oil output declined by 21 tb/d to 1.01 mb/d in July, despite the rig count increasing by three to reach a total of 27 rigs.

Total quarterly US liquids production in 2016 remained unchanged at 13.81 mb/d, 13.68 mb/d, 13.53 mb/d and 13.48 mb/d in 1Q to 4Q, respectively.

US oil rig count
The total US rig count for the week ending 7 October 2016 added two units w-o-w to reach a total of 524. Y-o-y, the total rig count in the US indicated a drop of 271 rigs. At the same time, the US oil rig count added three rigs w-o-w, reaching 428 rigs, while gas rigs declined by two rigs w-o-w, reaching 94, according to Baker Hughes' latest survey.

Since 27 May 2016, when the number of oil rigs reached the minimum of 316 rigs, 112 rigs have been added, an increase of 35%, so far. It seems that by adding these rigs, the pace of US onshore crude oil production declines will slow down, as was seen in July with supply declining by only 20 tb/d.

Canada and Mexico
Oil supply in Canada is expected to decline by 20 tb/d in 2016 to average 4.40 mb/d y-o-y, revised down by 20 tb/d from the previous month. Preliminary estimates place June Canadian oil output at 3.89 mb/d, 300 tb/d higher than May output but 250 tb/d lower than initially estimated. Therefore, the 2Q estimate was revised down by 77 tb/d to 3.90 mb/d.

This indicates that Canadian oil output decreased by 0.75 mb/d in 2Q16 compared to 1Q16 due to the wild fires at Fort MacMurray in May 2016. In June, output of oil sands (bitumen and synthetic crude) increased by 0.36 mb/d to settle at 1.96 mb/d, while conventional oil declined by 62 tb/d to 1.10 mb/d. Production of NGLs declined by 20 tb/d to average 0.83 mb/d in 2Q16. Oil sands output is expected to increase by 0.41 mb/d to average 2.33 mb/d in 3Q16 over 2Q as the upgraders returned to work and the total liquids production will reach 4.50 mb/d. By adding the upgraders, the higher synthetic crude output is expected to be online in the coming months, but there is still a gap of about 300 tb/d to reach last year’s level of 0.95 mb/d.

Canada’s overall rig count for the week ending 7 October 2016 added three units w-o-w to reach a total of 165. Y-o-y, the rig count in Canada indicated a decline of 15 rigs. The number of active rigs in Alberta, the main state for production of oil sands, after decreasing to the minimum of 26 rigs at the beginning of the wildfires in Fort MacMurray last May, reached an average of 112 rigs.

Mexican liquids production in 2016 is expected to decline by 0.12 mb/d to average 2.48 mb/d following the heavy annual decline of 0.20 mb/d in 2015. Oil output in 3Q16 is expected to decline by 20 tb/d to average 2.47 mb/d, q-o-q. Therefore, the expected growth in annual terms was revised down by 10 tb/d. Crude outputs declined by 13 tb/d to average 2.14 mb/d in August.

OECD Europe
Total OECD Europe oil supply, which grew by 0.15 mb/d to average 3.76 mb/d in 2015, is expected to grow this year at a slower pace, increasing by 70 tb/d due to the weak performances of oil production in other countries of the region, except Norway and the UK.

Norway’s oil supply is expected to grow by 80 tb/d from the previous year to average 2.03 mb/d in 2016, unchanged from the previous MOMR. Preliminary production figures for August 2016 show an average production of 1.93 mb/d of oil, NGLs and condensate, which is 0.20 mb/d, or 9.5%, less than in July 2016.

A report from the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate (NPD) showed that daily liquid production in August averaged 1.56 mb/d of oil, from 1.73 mb/d in the previous month, representing 0.34 mb/d of NGLs and 33 tb/d of condensate. Crude oil production in August was lower by 10% from a month earlier. This was due to production at the K?rst? oil field going offline for maintenance and production at the Goliat oil field being stopped at the end of the month following gas detection in an unexpected area during a planned venting of gas as part of a maintenance operation. Nevertheless, production has resumed at the Goliat field in the Barents Sea following a month-long shutdown. Despite the oil output decline in August, the y-t-d liquids production is still higher by 70 tb/d compared to the same period a year earlier. Therefore, annual growth is forecast at 80 tb/d, which is in line with actual growth so far.

The UK’s oil supply, despite higher maintenance this year, is anticipated to grow by 70 tb/d y-o-y to average 1.04 mb/d, with the ramp-up of new fields since 4Q15 offsetting steep underlying declines, although the growth has been revised down by 10 tb/d from the previous MOMR due to weak output in 3Q16. Two consecutive years into the reality of low oil prices, the UK's efforts to maintain competitiveness are bearing fruit as last year saw UK oil output jump for the first time in 15 years, increasing by 11.5% to 0.97 mb/d. UK liquids production in July 2016 was higher by 40 tb/d to average 1.05 mb/d, but lower output was seen in August, at 0.92 mb/d, indicating that some maintenance in various locations, such as at the oil fields in the J area, and at the Harding and Nelson fields, led to oil supply going partially offline in August. Moreover, production outages at the 0.18 mb/d Buzzard field during mid-September resulted in weaker production being forecast for 3Q16.

OECD Asia Pacific
OECD Asia Pacific’s oil supply is expected to decline by 20 tb/d in 2016 to average 0.44 mb/d, revised up by 20 tb/d from the previous MOMR. Australia’s oil supply, despite strong output in 3Q16 and an upward revision of 30 tb/d, which is carried over to 4Q16, is likely to decline by 20 tb/d, to average 0.36 mb/d this year.

Oil production in Other Asia Pacific (mainly New Zealand) during recent years has been stagnant. Therefore, average production of 0.08 mb/d is expected for 2016.

Developing Countries
Total oil production from developing countries (DCs) was revised up this month by 20 tb/d to reach an average of 11.25 mb/d in 2016, a contraction of 0.06 mb/d y-o-y. The main reasons for this year’s decline are much lower annual output in Latin America and, to a lesser degree, in Africa. Oil production in Other Asia is predicted to increase by 10 tb/d in 2016 to average 2.73 mb/d, unchanged from the previous MOMR. Total oil output in Malaysia and Thailand is forecast to grow by 50 tb/d, while oil production in India, Brunei and Vietnam will decrease. Middle East oil supply is also estimated to increase by 10 tb/d in 2016 from the previous year to average 1.28 mb/d, unchanged from the previous MOMR. Oman will grow by 20 tb/d to average 1.0 mb/d, while production in other countries of the region remains steady or experiences a minor decline.

Latin America
Latin America’s oil supply is estimated to decline by 0.07 mb/d to average 5.12 mb/d in 2016, unchanged from the last MOMR. The expected growth this year from Brazil as the main driver of this region will be offset by oil production declines in other Latin American countries, particularly Colombia.

Brazil’s liquid supply is expected to average 3.14 mb/d in 2016, an increase of 0.08 mb/d over the previous year, while it was revised up by 20 tb/d from the previous MOMR. Preliminary crude oil production shows an increase of 24 tb/d in August, following increased recovery from new well connections, mostly at the Lula field, reported by Petrobras. NGL output in August was more or less steady at 0.1 mb/d.

Petrobras plans to connect just 64 production and injection wells this year, with the majority of them in the Santos pre-salt fields, down from 73 in 2015 and a peak of 87 in 2014. Despite this reduction, well productivity increased remarkably – some pre-salt wells were already producing around 35 tb/d – to rise above the global average. 25 wells were completed from January to June and another 39 have been scheduled for the remainder of this year, including 11 pre-salt production wells.

Colombia
Oil production in Colombia is estimated to decline by 0.10 mb/d to average 0.92 mb/d in 2016, unchanged from the last MOMR. Following a peace agreement signed by the government and the main rebel group FARC on 27 September, a halt in military action could signal greater security for oil companies operating in Colombia. State-controlled Ecopetrol restarted the 220 tb/d Cano Limon-Cove?as crude pipeline on 10 September after the most recent rebel group attack. This pipeline transports crude from US Occidental's Cano Limon complex and also receives other Llanos basin crude from the 120 tb/d Bicentenario pipeline. Ecopetrol says all pipelines are currently operating normally, except the 85 tb/d Transandino, which is out of service for maintenance, according to Argus. Ecopetrol allocated 47% of capex to production and development, 41% to midstream and downstream, and 12% to exploration during 2014-2015.

In 2015, the company's capital expenditures totaled $6.5 bn. This year, the company plans to spend $3 bn-$3.4 bn.

Africa
Africa’s oil supply is projected to average 2.12 mb/d in 2016, a decline of 10 tb/d y-o-y and revised up by 10 tb/d from the previous MOMR. In 2016, oil production from Congo is expected to grow by 50 tb/d to average 0.31 mb/d, while output in other African countries – despite increasing output from Ghana’s production start-up in the “TEN” project and the production ramp-up at the Jubilee field in 2H16 – will decline or remain stagnant in 2016.

FSU, other regions
Total FSU oil supply is expected to grow by 0.14 mb/d in 2016 at an average of 13.84 mb/d, revised up by 30 tb/d from the previous month’s estimation. In 2016, oil production in Russia and Azerbaijan will increase, while oil production in Kazakhstan and FSU others is expected to decrease.

Russia
Russian oil output is expected to increase by 0.19 mb/d, revised up by 50 tb/d from the previous MOMR, to average 11.04 mb/d in 2016. Russia’s oil production has been growing for several years in a row. Output in 2015 stood at 10.85 mb/d of liquids, up by 1.6% y-o-y, and is expected to achieve the same growth rate in 2016. The first joint upstream project of Gazprom Neft and Rosneft started up in late September. Oil output decreased in August by 0.14 mb/d to average 10.85 mb/d – dropping to a 13-month low as a result of maintenance at the Sakhalin-1 field. The Russian oil industry is performing well, and both investment and production are growing despite low oil prices. Robust investment in the energy sector, which should rise by 15% this year to 3.6 trillion rubles ($55.5 billion), has been materialized despite the challenging market environment. Crude oil production in the first eight months of 2016 increased by 0.11 mb/d to average 10.22 mb/d. Oil production in 1H16 increased by 0.20 mb/d to average 11.03 mb/d compared to 1H15. Russian oil production is expected to grow by at least 10 tb/d in 2H16 compared to 1H16, up by 0.18 mb/d from the same period a year earlier.

Oil production in Russia will increase by adding new production coming from the Vostochno-Messoyakhskoye (East Messoyakh) field, Russia’s northernmost onshore field, harboring recoverable crude oil and gas condensate reserves of 2.49 billion barrels. Oil production flowed commercially from 21 September, with production planned at 44 tb/d this year. Rosneft also aims to launch the Suzunskoye field this October as part of the Vankor cluster of fields. Suzunskoye’s output would be around 90 tb/d. Another new volume coming on stream in Russia is the Filanovsky field in the Caspian Sea in early October with a total output of 70 tb/d for this year. Its official start-up will be on 3 October 2016.

Caspian
Kazakhstan’s oil supply, despite Kashagan’s production start-up in 4Q16, is expected to decrease by 40 tb/d over the previous year to average 1.56 mb/d in 2016. Kazakhstan’s oil production in August dropped by 0.3 mb/d to average 1.27 mb/d, due to the steep 40% drop in production at the Tengizchevroil field as a result of scheduled field maintenance. However, output is expected to recover in September to the same level as in July. According to Nefte Compass, the timeline for Kashagan’s start-up is becoming clearer, but uncertainties remain over the future direction of oil flows from the 9 billion-barrel reservoir.

Azerbaijan’s oil supply is anticipated to average 0.87 mb/d, unchanged from the previous MOMR, indicating minor growth of 10 tb/d in 2016. Azeri crude oil output in August decreased by 30 tb/d to average 0.86 mb/d. Nevertheless, total oil production (crude plus NGLs) was pegged at 0.87 mb/d in 1H16, the same as 1H15, but higher by 20 tb/d than 2H15.

China
China’s supply is expected to contract by 0.27 mb/d over the previous year to average 4.12 mb/d in 2016, revised down by 10 tb/d, due to a downward adjustment of 24 tb/d in 3Q16 from last month’s forecast. Chinese oil output in August, following a drop of 110 tb/d in July, decreased again, this time by 60 tb/d to 3.97 mb/d m-o-m (the first time it fell below 4 mb/d).

Nevertheless, CNOOC started production from the Enping 18-1 oilfield in the South China Sea in late September. Currently, three wells are online, producing around 2 tb/d. Within a year, production should reach the designed peak of roughly 11.8 tb/d. Declining oil output in China could be attributed to hefty spending cuts in 2016 by major Chinese oil companies – CNPC, Sinopec and CNOOC.

Forecast for 2017
Non-OPEC supply
Non-OPEC oil supply growth in 2017 was revised up by 40 tb/d this month to stand at 0.24 mb/d over the current year, to average 56.54 mb/d. This revision was due to the downward 2016 base change and also partially due to a change in Russia’s production forecast. Non-OPEC supply contraction estimated for 2016 will change to growth in 2017 for several reasons – lower declines in OECD Americas and China as well as higher growth in Latin America, Africa and FSU. Supply growth in DCs and FSU of 0.28 mb/d and 0.19 mb/d will be partially offset by declines in OECD and China by 0.15 mb/d and 0.12 mb/d, respectively, in 2017. The forecast remains subject to growing uncertainties over the world economy and impacts on the performance of nonOPEC production, including the behaviour of US tight oil production, a possible change in Russia’s oil output, the on-time implementation of Brazilian projects, geopolitical concerns, as well as the effects of downward spending revisions by international oil companies (IOCs).

On a country basis, the main contributors to growth in 2017 are: Brazil with 0.25 mb/d, Kazakhstan with 0.22 mb/d, Canada with 0.17 mb/d, Congo with 0.07 mb/d, Other Africa with 0.06 mb/d, and Malaysia with 0.04 mb/d. On the other hand, Mexico, US, China, Colombia, and Azerbaijan are, expected to show the main declines.

The main risk factors, such as geopolitical tensions in some oil producing territories, technical developments, bottlenecks and, most importantly, oil price levels, will continue to have an impact on supply growth expectations.

Key drivers for 2017 non-OPEC supply developments
In the US, total liquids production is forecast to pick up only marginally by the beginning of 3Q17, with minor growth of 30 tb/d to average 13.43 mb/d, while it is expected to decline by 0.16 mb/d on average to stand at 13.46 mb/d for the whole year. Crude oil is estimated to decline by 0.55 mb/d to average 8.87 mb/d in 2016, then decline again by 0.23 mb/d to average 8.64 mb/d in 2017. Some of the declines in onshore crude will be offset by growth of 0.15 mb/d in the Gulf of Mexico. Nevertheless, growth for NGLs and biofuels output is expected to increase by 47 tb/d and 20 tb/d, respectively. The main component of US oil output, tight oil, is forecast to contract by 0.29 mb/d y-o-y.

US oil and gas companies will step up activity in 2017 as they start to increase their spending amid a recovery in prices. According to consultancy Deloitte, the bulk of activity will be focused on the completion business with very little investments going into exploration. A survey by the consultancy of 251 oil and gas industry executives, done between June and July, shows that 43% expect an increase in upstream capital expenditures (capex) next year, while 25% expect an increase this year. About 28% expect capex levels to remain unchanged this year and 27% think it will stay flat next year.

Canada is expected to be the third largest source of non-OPEC supply growth after Brazil and Kazakhstan in 2017, expanding by 0.17 mb/d m-o-m to 4.57 mb/d. The 2017 production forecast was revised down by 20 tb/d due to a base change. Growth will come mainly from the ramp-up of oil sands projects (Surmont 2, Christian Lake, Sunrise and Kearl), as well as new start-ups of heavy oil thermal projects (Edam East, West and Vawm) in 2017.

In Brazil, following three planned projects of Lula Central, Lula Alto and Lapa, of which two projects have been implemented with a total peak capacity of 0.38 mb/d in 1H16, Brazil’s Petrobras, as of 2017, will begin seeking offers for the construction of seven new offshore oil platforms envisioned in its current investment plans. Petrobras has planned to add these seven FPSOs in the Santos Basin, including three in the Lula field – including Lula South (FPSO P-66) and Lula South Extension (FPSO P-68), two in the Buzios field, one in the Lapa field and one at the giant Libra area. Oil production is expected to increase by 0.25 mb/d to average 3.40 mb/d when these seven new projects materialize next year. Petrobras is seeking to ramp up production as part of a five-year, $74.1 billion capital spending plan announced in late September. It slashed investments from a prior plan by 25%, seeking to refocus on core operations.

In Russia, oil production growth forecast for 2017 has been revised up by 70 tb/d to average 10 tb/d y-o-y. Production ramp-ups of three new projects ? the VostochnoMessoyakhskoye (East Messoyakh) field, the Suzunskoye field and the Filanovsky field in the Caspian Sea ? are the main drivers for this revision. It is expected that Russian oil production in 2017 will reach 11.04 mb/d.

In the Caspian, according to the latest news, the start-up of the giant Kashagan field in Kazakhstan in late October 2016 will add new volume in 4Q16 and is planned to reach an initial plateau of 0.37 mb/d in Phase 1 by mid-2017. Therefore, Kazakh oil production growth is currently forecast at 0.22 mb/d in 2017.

In China, oil production, following a heavy decline in 2016, is expected to continue in the same direction but at a slower pace, dropping by 0.12 mb/d y-o-y to an average annual oil supply of 3.99 mb/d. Offshore companies plan to start up new projects at Chunxiao, Weizhou 11-4 North Phase II and Enping 23-1 in 2017, but the main stateowned oil companies have cut their capital expenditures as well as output.

OPEC NGLs and non-conventional oils
OPEC natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids (mostly GTLs) were estimated to average 6.29 mb/d in 2016, representing growth of 0.16 mb/d over the previous year. In 2017, OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids are projected to average 6.43 mb/d, an increase of 0.15 mb/d over the previous year. There are no changes in the 2016 estimation and 2017 predictions for OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids production compared with the last MOMR.

OPEC crude oil production
According to secondary sources, OPEC crude oil production averaged 33.39 mb/d in September, an increase of 0.22 mb/d over the previous month. Crude oil output increased mostly from Iraq, Nigeria and Libya, while production in Saudi Arabia showed the largest drop.

World oil supply
Preliminary data indicates that global oil supply increased by 1.46 mb/d to average 96.40 mb/d in September 2016 compared with the previous month. The increase of both non-OPEC supply, including OPEC NGLs, by 1.24 mb/d and OPEC crude oil production by 0.22 mb/d in September increased global oil output. The share of OPEC crude oil at 34.6% of total global production was revised down by 0.3% in September compared to a month earlier. Estimates are based on preliminary data for non-OPEC supply as well as OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids from direct communications, while estimates for OPEC crude production come from secondary sources.

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