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Oil Trade - October 2016

Source: OPEC_RP161010 10/12/2016, Location: Not categorized

In September, preliminary data shows that US crude oil imports declined to average 7.9 mb/d, down by 392 tb/d from the previous month, yet 690 tb/d, or 10%, higher than the year-ago level. US monthly product imports declined from the previous month by 72 tb/d, to stand at 2.2 mb/d, while on an annual comparison, they were up by only 20 tb/d or 1%.

Japan’s crude oil imports increased in August by 62 tb/d, or 2%, to average 3.2 mb/d, while y-o-y, they dropped from the previous year by 288 tb/d or 8%. Product imports were also up in August, rising by 25 tb/d to average 575 tb/d, yet they dropped by 2% from a year earlier.

China’s crude imports went up in August to the highest level since April, increasing by 421 tb/d, or 6%, to average 7.8 mb/d, while on an annual comparison, they were higher than the previous year by 1.5 mb/d or 24%. China’s product imports increased slightly, rising by 29 tb/d from a month ago, however they were down by a slight 6 tb/d from a year earlier.

In August, India’s crude imports went up by 377 tb/d, or 9%, from the previous month to average 4.4 mb/d, while y-o-y, they also went up by 372 tb/d or 9%. Product imports in August rose by 19 tb/d from the previous month to average 642 tb/d, while y-o-y, they decreased by 111 tb/d.

US In September, preliminary data shows that US crude oil imports decreased to average 7.9 mb/d, down by 392 tb/d from last month, while they remained higher than last year by 690 tb/d, or 10%. In September, y-t-d, US crude imports were 578 tb/d higher from the same period a year ago.

US monthly product imports declined from the previous month by 72 tb/d to stand at 2.2 mb/d, while on an annual comparison, they were up by only 20 tb/d, or 1%. Y-t-d, product imports remained almost stable.

As for product exports, in September, US product exports were 679 tb/d higher than a month ago to average 4.6 mb/d. On an annual comparison, product exports were higher than a year before by 169 tb/d or 4%. As a result, US total net imports declined to average 5 mb/d, however they remained higher than last year’s level by 462 tb/d, or 10%.

In July, the top first and second crude suppliers to the US maintained the same order as seen last month. Canada remained the premier crude supplier to the US accounting for 36% of total US crude imports, despite a drop by 63 tb/d from a month ago. Saudi Arabia came in again as the second largest supplier to the US, but also saw a drop in its exports to the US by 37 tb/d. Venezuela came in as the third top supplier accounting for 11% of total US crude imports, as it increased its exports to the US by 178 tb/d, or 26%, from a month before.

Crude imports from OPEC Member Countries went up in July from the previous month, increasing by 478 tb/d, or 16%, and accounted for 43% of total US crude imports. Alternatively, US product imports from OPEC Member Countries were up by 17 tb/d, or 6%, from last month. As for the product supplier share, Canada and Russia maintained their positions as first and second suppliers to the US, accounting for 21% and 19%, respectively. Canada’s product exports to the US in July were higher by 14 tb/d, and Russia’s volumes were up by 52 tb/d from a month ago. South Korea came in as the third supplier to the US as it increased its volumes from the previous month by 14 tb/d.

As for crude imports by region, in July, US crude imports from North America averaged 2.9 mb/d. North America came in as the top region for US crude imports, followed by Latin America, which stood at 24 mb/d, while the Middle East came in as the third region with an average of 1.8 mb/d. Imports from Africa were up from last month by 252 tb/d to stand at 726 tb/d, while imports from Asia were higher than the previous month’s level by 18 tb/d.

Looking at crude imports by PADDs, in PADD 1, the highest crude imports to the East Coast were sourced from Africa and North America, which stood at 432 tb/d and 176 tb/d, respectively. Crude imports from Africa were higher in July than in the previous month by 110 tb/d. Imports from PADD 2 were mostly sourced from North America and stood at 1.9 mb/d, higher by 86 tb/d than in the previous month. PADD 2 imported small quantities from the Middle East, averaging 36 tb/d. PADD 3 sourced its imports from Latin America and the Middle East as both showed higher exports to the US than in the previous month by 147 tb/d and 90 tb/d to average 1.9 mb/d and 1.2 mb/d, respectively. PADD 4 only covered its imports from North America, averaging 287 tb/d in July. The West Coast’s largest imports in July originated from the Middle East, which exported 464 tb/d to PADD 5, followed by Latin America and North America, which exported 401 tb/d and 228 tb/d, respectively.

Japan
Japan’s crude oil imports increased in August by 62 tb/d, or 2%, to average 3.2 mb/d. Y-o-y, crude imports dropped from last year by 288 tb/d, or 8%. Looking at crude suppliers’ shares, as seen in the previous month, Saudi Arabia, UAE and Qatar were the top suppliers to Japan in August. Saudi Arabia came in as the first crude supplier to Japan, holding a share of 31% of total crude exports, although its exports were lower by 83 tb/d from a month before. UAE came in as the second largest supplier to Japan with a share of 26% of total crude exports. Qatar held the third position in August with a share of 10%. Volumes imported from the UAE were almost at the same level as in the previous month, while Qatar exported more crude to Japan, up by 54 tb/d.

Similarly, product imports were also up in August by 25 tb/d to average 575 tb/d, increasing by 5% m-o-m, yet dropping by 2% from a year earlier. Japan’s domestic oil product sales fell again, decreasing by 3% in August from a year ago.

Accordingly, Japan’s net imports increased slightly in August by just 18 tb/d to average 3.1 mb/d, which was 305 tb/d, or 9%, less than in the previous year.

China
China’s crude imports went up in August to their highest level since April, increasing by 421 tb/d, or 6%, to average 7.8 mb/d. Nevertheless, refinery runs were lower in August. On an annual comparison, China’s crude imports were higher than last year by 1.5 mb/d, or 24%. Y-t-d, the figures reflect an increase of 867 tb/d, or 13%. Russia, Oman and Iran showed the largest increases in their exports to China, by 332 tb/d, 297 tb/d and 180 tb/d, respectively.

Nevertheless, the top crude oil suppliers to China were Russia, Saudi Arabia and Oman, accounting for 14%, 13%, and 11%, respectively, of total imports.

China’s product imports increased slightly, rising by 29 tb/d from a month ago, however they were down by a slight 6 tb/d from last year with no significant changes within the imported product compositions.

In August, China exported 52 tb/d of crude oil, similar to the level of July. China’s product exports in August were 197 tb/d less than in the previous month, to average 990 tb/d, but up by 153 tb/d, or 18%, y-o-y.

As a result, China’s net oil imports rose by 654 tb/d from the previous month to stand at 7.9 mb/d and were up by 1.3 mb/d from a year ago.

India
In August, India’s crude imports went up by 377 tb/d, or 9%, from the previous month to average 4.4 mb/d, while y-o-y, they also increased, rising by 372 tb/d or 9%.

Product imports in August rose by 19 tb/d from the previous month to average 642 tb/d, while y-o-y, they were lower by 111 tb/d. Monthly product imports stayed almost stable as the imports of different products reflected no major changes from the previous month.

India’s product exports were higher in August than in the previous month by 175 tb/d, or 13%, to average 1.5 mb/d, while y-o-y, exports were also higher, rising by 42 tb/d or 3%. India’s monthly product exports reached their highest level since February 2016, mainly on exports of higher volumes of diesel oil, which rose to 111 tb/d from the previous month. Naphtha exports also went up from the previous month by 70 tb/d.

Consequentially, India’s net imports increased by 221 tb/d to average 3.6 mb/d, reflecting an increase of 7% m-o-m and y-o-y.

FSU
In August, total crude oil exports from the Former Soviet Union dropped by 845 tb/d, or 13%, to average 5.9 mb/d. Crude exports through Russian pipelines declined as well by 83 tb/d, or 2%, to average 4 mb/d.

Total shipments from the Black Sea dropped by 28 tb/d, or 5%, to average 519 tb/d, this drop came as shipments from Novorossiysk were lower compared with a month earlier.

Total Baltic Sea exports increased by 45 tb/d in August as shipments from the Primorsk port terminal increased by 92 tb/d, while Ust Luga port terminal exports were down by 47 tb/d.

Total shipments through the Druzhba pipeline stayed unchanged from the previous month to average 1.1 mb/d, while Kozmino shipments declined by 100 tb/d, or 15%, to average 577 tb/d.

Exports through the Lukoil system were down from the previous month. In the Barents sea, the Varandey offshore platform exports declined by 52 tb/d, while Baltic sea exports through the Kalinigrad port terminal stayed flat from July’s volume.

On other routes, Russian Fareast total exports were down by 228 tb/d from the previous month, as volumes from the De Kastri terminal dropped. Central Asian total export stood at 183 tb/d, with no major changes from the previous month. Black Sea total exports went down by 393 tb/d, mainly as exports through Novorossiysk (CPC) dropped by 327 tb/d. In the Mediterranean Sea, BTC supplies showed a drop of 89 tb/d, or 12%, from the previous month to average 536 tb/d.

Looking into product exports, FSU total product exports rose by 272 tb/d, or 10%, from last month to average 3.1 mb/d. This gain in product exports came as a result of higher exports of naphtha, gasoil, fuel oil and VGO, which all went up in August from a month earlier, by volumes between 26 tb/d and 213 tb/d.

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