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Stock Movements - October 2016

Source: OPEC_RP161011 10/12/2016, Location: Europe

OECD commercial oil stocks fell in August to stand at 3,094 mb, which is around 322 mb above the latest five-year average. Crude and products indicated surpluses of around 191 mb and 131 mb above the seasonal norm, respectively. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks stood at 66.7 days, 6.7 days higher than the latest five-year average. Preliminary data for September shows that total commercial oil stocks in the US fell by 11.2 mb to stand at 1,379.7 mb, which is around 74 mb above the same period a year ago and 220 mb higher than the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude stocks fell by 11.6 mb, while products rose slightly by 0.4 mb. The latest information for China showed a drop of 5.1 mb in total commercial oil inventories in August to stand at 376 mb. Within the components, crude rose by 9.8 mb, while product inventories fell by 14.9 mb.

OECD
Preliminary data for August shows that total OECD commercial oil stocks fell by 17.4 mb to stand at 3,094 mb, which is around 117 mb higher than at the same time one year ago and 323 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude stocks fell by 21.3 mb, while products rose by 3.8 mb. OECD commercial stock builds have shown signs of slowing since the beginning of this year as they increased by only 41 mb compared with a build of 214 mb last year during the same period.

OECD commercial crude stocks ended August at 1,528 mb, standing 41 mb above the same time one year earlier and around 191 mb higher than the latest five-year average. All OECD regions experienced a drop, with more than half of the total decline coming from North America.

In contrast, OECD product inventories rose by 3.8 mb for the fourth consecutive month, to stand at 1,566 mb, which is 76 mb higher than a year ago at the same time and 131 mb above the seasonal norm. Within the regions, OECD North America and OECD Europe saw declines, while OECD Asia Pacific experienced a build.

In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks rose slightly in August by 0.1 days to stand at 66.7 days, which is 2.1 days above the previous year in the same period and 6.7 days higher than the latest five-year average. Within the regions, OECD Americas had 8.1 more days of forward cover than the historical average to stand at 66.5 days in August. OECD Asia Pacific stood 3.4 days above the seasonal average to finish the month of August at 56.8 days. At the same time, OECD Europe indicated a surplus of 6.1 days above the seasonal norm, averaging 72.5 days in August.

Commercial stocks in OECD Americas fell by 11.8 mb in August, following a build of 32.5 mb in July, to settle at 1,641 mb, a surplus of 78 mb above a year ago and 226 mb higher than the seasonal norm. Within the components, crude stocks fell by 11.2 mb, while products dropped slightly by 0.6 mb.

At the end of August, commercial crude oil stocks in OECD Americas fell, ending the month at 850 mb, which was 46 mb above the same time one year ago, and 151 mb above the latest five-year average. The decline came from lower crude imports resulting from the closure of temporary offshore platforms due to tropical storms in Florida and the GOM at the end of the month.

Product stocks in OECD Americas fell slightly, by 0.6 mb, ending August at 791 mb, a surplus of 32 mb above the same time one year ago and 75 mb higher than the seasonal norm. Higher gasoline consumption in the US contributed to the fall in product inventories.

OECD Europeís commercial stocks fell by 3.4 mb in August, ending the month at 1,014 mb, which is 50 mb higher than at the same time a year ago and 86 mb above the latest five-year average. Crude and products fell by 2.7 mb and 0.7 mb, respectively.

OECD Europeís commercial crude stocks fell in August, ending the month at 429 mb, which is 17 mb above the same period a year earlier and 38 mb higher than the latest five-year average. The fall in crude oil stocks came on the back of higher crude throughput, which increased by 130,000 b/d in August, compared with July.

OECD Europeís commercial product stocks also fell by 0.7 mb to end August at 584 mb, which is 33 mb higher than a year ago at the same time and 48 mb higher than the seasonal norm. The small drop could be attributed to higher demand in the region during the summer holiday.

OECD Asia Pacific commercial oil stocks fell by 2.2 mb in August, reversing the build of the third consecutive month, to settle at 439 mb, which is 10.4 mb lower than a year ago, yet 11 mb above the five-year average. Within the components, crude fell by 7.4 mb, while product stocks rose by 5.2 mb. In August, crude inventories ended the month at 249 mb, which is 22 mb below a year ago, yet 1.6 mb above the seasonal norm. OECD Asia Pacificís total product inventories ended August at 189 mb, standing 11 mb higher than the same time a year ago and 9 mb above the seasonal norm.

EU plus Norway
Preliminary data for August shows total European stocks fell by 3.4 mb to stand at 1,155.3 mb, which is 39.3 mb, or 3.5%, above the same time a year ago and 71.5 mb, or 6.6%, higher than the latest five-year average. Crude fell by 2.7 mb, while total product stocks declined by 0.7 mb.

European crude inventories fell in August for the third consecutive month to stand at 489.0 mb, which is 5.4 mb, or 1.1%, above the same period a year ago and 21.5 mb, or 4.6%, higher than the seasonal norm. The decline could derive from higher crude throughput, which increased by 130,000 b/d to reach 10.53 mb/d.

European products stocks fell by 0.7 mb, ending August at 666.3 mb, which is 33.9 mb, or 5.4%, above the same time a year ago, and 49.9 mb, or 8.1%, above the seasonal norm. Within products, the picture was mixed with gasoline and distillate stocks rising, while residual fuel oil and naphtha witnessed stock draws.

Gasoline stocks rose by 0.5 mb in August to stand at 118.7 mb, which is 13.1 mb, or 12.4%, above a year earlier, and 12.0 mb, or 11.3%, higher than the seasonal norm. The build may have been driven by higher gasoline output, as demand was almost unchanged in August, compared with July.

Distillate stocks rose slightly, by 0.1 mb, ending August at 448.7 mb, which is 23.2 mb, or 5.4%, higher than at the same time one year ago and 23.2 mb, or 5.4%, above the latest five-year average. The slight build in distillate stocks could be attributed to the fall in distillate demand in August.

In contrast, residual fuel oil stocks fell by 0.1 mb in August to stand at 75.7 mb, which is 1.5 mb, or 2.0%, less than the same month a year ago and 9.0 mb, or 10.7%, lower than the latest five-year average. The decline was a result of higher fuel oil demand, especially for marine bunkers.

US
Preliminary data for September shows that total commercial oil stocks in the US fell by 11.2 mb, reversing the build of the last two months, to settle at 1,379.7 mb, which is around 74 mb, or 5.6%, above the same period a year ago and 220 mb, or 19%, higher than the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude stocks fell by 11.6 mb, while products rose slightly by 0.4 mb.

US commercial crude stocks fell in September, reversing the build of last month to stand at 499.7 mb, which is 39.0 mb, or 8.5%, above the same time one year ago and 120.4 mb, or 31.8%, above the latest five-year average. US commercial crude stocks fell in the last week of September by 3.0 mb for the fifth time in a row despite slowing refinery activity, although overall oil inventories remained at their highest level. The five-week run of drawdowns has surprised some because it was kicked off with a 14 mb drop ? the largest plunge since 1999 ? at the beginning of September, resulting in reduced imports due to severe Gulf Coast weather. Indeed, US crude imports in September averaged 7.9 mb/d, around 400,000 b/d less than in the previous month. At the same time, lower crude oil refinery inputs, which stood at 16.5 mb/d, 170,000 tb/d lower than in August, limited further drops in crude oil stocks.

In contrast, total product stocks rose slightly by 0.4 mb in September, ending the month at 880.0 mb, which is around 34.7 mb, or 4.1%, above the level seen at the same time a year ago, and 100 mb, or 13.6%, above the seasonal norm. Within products, the picture was mixed with distillates, jet fuel and propylene stocks witnessing a build, while gasoline and residual fuel oil inventories experienced a drop.

Distillate stocks rose by 2.6 mb in September, ending the month at 168.7 mb, indicating a surplus of 2.6 mb, or 11.9%, above the same period a year ago and 22.6 mb, or 16.4%, above the latest five-year average. The build in middle distillate stocks came mainly on lower demand, which averaged around 3.6 mb/d, about 150,000 b/d below last month, while lower output limited a further build in distillate stocks.

Jet fuel stocks also rose by 2.2 mb, ending September at 44.0 mb, which is 2.2 mb, or 3.6%, above the same period a year ago and 9.0 mb, or 1.8%, higher than the latest five-year average.

In contrast, gasoline stocks fell by 0.4 mb in September, following a massive drop of 12.5 mb in August, to settle at 227.4 mb, which is 2.3 mb, or 1.0%, above the same period a year ago and 12.5 mb, or 5.8%, above the latest five-year average. The decline came mainly on the back of lower production, which averaged 9.9 mb/d, more than 200,000 b/d lower than in the previous month.

Residual fuel oil inventories also fell by 0.4 mb to 39.2 mb in September, which is 2.1 mb, or 5.1%, lower than the same period a year ago, yet 2.5 mb, or 6.8%, above the seasonal norm.

Japan
In Japan, total commercial oil stocks fell by 2.2 mb in August to stand at 153.6 mb, which is 15.0 mb, or 8.9%, less than the same time a year ago and 16.5 mb, or 9.7%, below the five-year average. Within the components, crude stocks went down 7.4 mb, while product stocks rose by 5.2 mb.

In August, Japanese commercial crude oil stocks fell, ending the month at 86.1 mb, which is 13.1 mb, or 13.2%, below the same period a year ago, and 10.1 mb, or 10.5%, below the seasonal norm. The decline came on the back of higher crude throughput, which rose by 194,000 b/d, or 6.1%, to stand at 3.4 mb/d. The increase in crude oil imports by 62,000 b/d, or 2.0%, to average 3.2 mb/d, limited further builds in crude oil stocks.

In contrast, Japanís total product inventories rose by 5.2 mb in August for the second consecutive month to stand at 67.5 mb. This build was mainly driven by the fall in Japanese oil sales, which dropped by 3% from a year earlier to 2.9 mb, the lowest level for the month since 1986. Despite the build in total product inventories, they stood 1.8 mb, or 2.6%, below the same time a year ago, and 16.5 mb, or 9.7%, below the five-year average. Within products, the picture was mixed. Distillate stocks, naphtha and residual fuel experienced builds, while gasoline inventories witnessed a drop.

Distillate stocks rose by 3.6 mb in August to stand at 33.1 mb, which is 0.3 mb, or 0.9%, lower than the same period a year ago and 1.7 mb, or 5.0%, below the seasonal average. All distillate components saw builds with jet fuel rising by 2.0% on the back of higher output, and kerosene and gasoil stocks increasing by 14% and 17%, respectively, also on the back of higher production. However, the increase in domestic sales limited further builds.

Total residual fuel oil stocks rose by 0.6 mb in August to stand at 13.7 mb, which is 0.8 mb, or 5.2%, lower than a year ago and 2.6 mb, or 16.0%, below the latest fiveyear average. Within fuel oil components, fuel oil A fell by 1.3%, while fuel oil B.C stocks rose by 8.1%. The build in fuel oil B.C inventories came on the back of higher output, which rose by 2.3%, and lower domestic sales, which declined by 6.9%.

Naphtha inventories rose by 1.3 mb, ending August at 10.4 mb, which is 1.3 mb, or 11%, lower than a year ago at the same time and 0.1 mb, or 1.0%, lower than the seasonal norm. This build was driven by higher imports, which rose by nearly 7%, combined with an increase of 2.1% in output. Higher domestic sales, which increased by 6.2%, limited further builds in naphtha inventories.

In contrast, gasoline inventories fell by 0.3 mb, ending August at 10.2 mb, which is 0.5 mb, or 5.5%, above last year at the same time, yet 1.9 mb, or 15.7%, below the five-year average. The decline was mainly driven by higher domestic sales, which increased by 8.6% versus last month.

China
The latest information for China showed a drop of 5.1 mb in total commercial oil inventories in August to stand at 375.9 mb, which is 31.5 mb lower than the previous year at the same time. Within the components, crude rose by 9.8 mb, while product inventories fell by 14.9 mb.

In August, commercial crude stocks rose to 228.9 mb, reversing the drop of the previous month. At this level, they were 23.5 mb below the previous year at the same time. The build could be attributed to lower crude throughput, which shrank by 2.3 mb compared with the previous month. Higher crude oil imports, which increased by around 421,000 b/d to average 7.8 mb/d, also contributed to this build. In contrast, total product stocks in China fell by 14.9 mb, ending August at 147.0 mb, which is 8.0 mb lower than the same time a year ago. All products dropped, with diesel experiencing the largest fall.

Diesel inventories fell 12.4 mb in August to stand at 61.2 mb, the lowest since December 2014. At this level, diesel stocks are 27.3 mb below the same time a year ago. This fall was driven mainly by lower output as a result of lower crude oil throughput, but also by stronger diesel demand in August, which rebounded by more than 400,000 b/d from the previous month.

Gasoline and kerosene stocks fell in August by 1.1 mb and 1.5 mb, respectively. At 67.5 mb, gasoline stocks stood at 16.5 mb above the same time a year ago, while kerosene ended August at 18.3 mb, which is 2.8 mb above the same period last year.

The declines in both product stocks were due to the fall in output combined with higher demand.

Singapore and Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA)
At the end of August, product stocks in Singapore fell by 6.9 mb, reversing the build of the previous month, to settle at 48.3 mb, which is 3.0 mb, or 5.9%, below the same period a year ago. Within products, the picture was mixed with light distillate and fuel oil stocks falling and middle distillate inventories rising.

Middle distillate stocks rose by 0.9 mb to end August at 14.1 mb, which is 0.6 mb, or 4.6%, above the previous year at the same time. The build was driven by lower middle distillate demand in the region combined with lower exports from the Singapore hub. In contrast, light distillate stocks fell by 1.7 mb, ending the month of August at 13.6 mb, which is 1.6 mb, or 13.5%, above the same time a year ago. Residual fuel oil stocks also fell by 6.9 mb, reversing the build of last month, to end August at 20.6 mb, which is 5.3 mb, or 20.4%, less than at the same time a year ago. The decline could be attributed to higher marine bunker demand in the region.

Product stocks in Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) fell by 3.5 mb to end August at 44.0 mb, which is 7.0 mb, or 13.7%, lower than at the same time a year ago. All product inventories went down, with the exception of gasoil stocks.

Gasoline stocks fell by 2.5 mb, ending August at 8.0 mb, which is 0.6 mb, or 7.2%, above the previous year at the same time. Fuel oil stocks fell by 0.5 mb in August to stand at 4.9 mb, which is 2.9 mb, or nearly 35%, lower than at the same period a year ago. This fall was mainly driven by higher demand from marine bunkers in the region.

In contrast, gasoil inventories rose by 0.1 mb, ending August at 24.1 mb, which is 2.0 mb, or around 8.0%, lower than the same month of the previous year.

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