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Oil Trade - July 2017

Source: OPEC_RP170710 7/12/2017, Location: Europe

June preliminary data shows that US crude oil imports dropped by 247 tb/d from the previous month to average 7.9 mb/d. However, annually US crude imports were 332 tb/d higher from a year earlier. US product imports fell by 189 tb/d or 8% to average 2 mb/d m-o-m, and dropped by 407 tb/d, or 17%, y-o-y. Japan crude oil imports dropped in May by 747 tb/d, or 21%, m-o-m, to average 2.8 mb/d, reaching their lowest annual level in May, down by 16% or 542 tb/d, y-o-y. Japan’s product imports showed a decline in May of 42 tb/d to average 588 tb/d, mainly as naphtha figures were down in May by 61 tb/d or 11%. In the same month, China’s crude oil imports rose from the previous month to their second-highest levels since March 2017, up by 391 mb/d or 5% from the previous month to average 8.8 mb/d. On an annual basis, China’s crude imports rose by a remarkable 1.2 mb/d, or 15%. China’s product imports were up in the month by 304 tb/d from the previous month and 179 tb/d from a year earlier to average 1.6 mb/d. Meanwhile, Indian crude imports averaged 4.2 mb/d, which was 259 tb/d, or 6%, less from the previous month. Crude imports were down as the country entered refinery maintenance season. On an annual basis this reflects a small increase of 58 tb/d or 1%. Product imports rose by 44 tb/d, or 6%, from a month earlier to average 828 tb/d, reflecting a slight drop of 13 tb/d, or 2%, y-o-y.

US
June preliminary data shows that US crude oil imports dropped by 247 tb/d from the previous month to average 7.9 mb/d. However, annually, US crude imports were 332 tb/d higher than a year before.

US product imports went down by 189 tb/d, or 8%, to average 2 mb/d m-o-m, dropping y-o-y by 407 tb/d, or 17%.

US product exports fell by 185 tb/d or 4% from the previous month to average 4.6 mb/d.

In an annual comparison, figures showed a drop of 295 tb/d, or 6%. As a result, US total net imports averaged 4.8 mb/d, stable from the previous month’s level.

Canada remained the top supplier in April as seen earlier, accounting for 41% of total US crude imports, although its exports to the US were lower by 5%, or 153 tb/d, from the previous month. Saudi Arabia came in as second-largest supplier to the US with a share of 14% of total crude imports, while Venezuela was the third-largest supplier with a share of 10%. Imports from Saudi Arabia were down 19 tb/d, while those from Venezuela were up from the previous month by 111 tb/d.

Total crude imports from OPEC Member Countries rose in April from the previous month by 153 tb/d or 5%, as they accounted for 43% of total US crude imports. At the same time, US product imports from OPEC Member Countries dropped from a month before by 9 tb/d to stand at 227 tb/d, representing 10% of total products imported by the US. Canada and Russia maintained their positions as first - and second-largest suppliers to the US with shares of 25% and 13%, respectively. Imports from both countries were lower from the previous month by 21 tb/d and 79 tb/d, respectively. South Korea came in as third-largest product supplier to the US, up by 67 tb/d from the previous month’s imports.

In April, US crude imports from North America averaged 3.4 mb/d, maintaining the top spot as it had earlier. Latin America came in as the second source of imports to the US, averaging 2.2 mb/d in April, while the Middle East was the third-biggest importing region with an average of 2 mb/d. Imports from Africa increased from the previous month to stand at 533 tb/d, while no imports from Asia were registered.

As to crude imports by PADD, the highest crude imports to PADD 1 on the East Coast were sourced from Africa, with an average of 469 tb/d, followed by imports from the Middle East, which averaged 186 tb/d. Imports from North America were down by 96 tb/d to stand at 137 tb/d. PADD 2 imports were mostly imported from North America and averaged 2.3 mb/d in April, down by 42 tb/d from a month earlier. PADD 2 imported 42 tb/d from the Middle East. PADD 3 imports its largest volumes from Latin America and the Middle East. Imports from both regions rose from March by 98 tb/d and 48tb/d, respectively. PADD 4 imports came solely from North America and were down by 12 tb/d, averaging 274 tb/d. In PADD 5, the West Coast’s top importing region was the Middle East, followed by Latin America and North America, averaging 472 tb/d, 433 tb/d and 214 tb/d, respectively, in April.

Japan
Japan’s crude oil imports dropped in May by 747 tb/d or 21% from the previous month to average 2.8 mb/d, reaching the lowest level. Annually crude imports were lower in May by 16% or 542 tb/d. The drop in crude imports came on the back of lower refinery throughput in the country.

With regard to crude suppliers’ share, Saudi Arabia remained the premier crude supplier to Japan, holding a share of 40% of total crude exports despite lower monthly volumes, which dropped by 262 tb/d from the previous month. The UAE came in as second-largest supplier to Japan with a share of 22% of total crude imports. Kuwait came in third, with a share of 8%. Japan’s imports from the UAE were higher than the previous month by 208 t/d, while imports from Kuwait were down by 34 tb/d.

Japan’s product imports showed a decline in May by 42 tb/d to average 588 tb/d. The country saw less overall product being imported mainly due to less naphtha imports in May, while product exports were higher from the previous month by 80 tb/d to average 523 tb/d.

Accordingly, Japan’s net imports dropped by 869 tb/d to average 2.8 mb/d reflecting a monthly and annual drop of 23% and 11%, respectively.

China
In May, China’s crude oil imports rose from the previous month to their second-highest levels since March. The country’s crude imports rose by 391 mb/d or 5% from one month earlier to average 8.8 mb/d. On the same time China’s refinery runs were down from the previous month. In an annual comparison, Chinese crude imports were up by a remarkable 1.2 mb/d or 15%, while on a year-to-date analysis, figures reflect an increase of 1 mb/d or 14%.

In terms of crude oil suppliers’ share Russia, Angola and Saudi Arabia were the top crude suppliers to China in June, with shares of 15%, 15% and 12%, respectively. In May, China crude imports saw increased volumes from the top suppliers by 203 tb/d, 195 tb/d and 81 tb/d, respectively, from the previous month.

China’s product imports were also up in May by 304 tb/d from the previous month and higher by 179 tb/d from a year earlier to average 1.6 mb/d, supported by the product demand in the country.

China’s product exports rose from the previous month, up by 100 tb/d to average 1.1 mb/d.

As a result, China’s net oil imports were up by 628 tb/d or 7% from the previous month and stayed 1.2 mb/d higher than the level from one year before.

India
In May, India’s crude imports averaged 4.2 mb/d, which is 259 tb/d or 6% down from the previous month. The country’s crude imports were down as it entered refinery maintenance season. On an annual basis, this reflects a small increase by 58 tb/d or 1%. However, product imports rose by 44 tb/d, or 6%, from a month earlier to average 828 tb/d, reflecting a slight drop of 13 tb/d or 2%, y-o-y. Monthly increases in total product imports came mainly as a result of diesel increases; it was up by 102 tb/d, though this was offset by lower imports of LPG.

India’s product exports dropped in May by 76 tb/d, or 6%, from the previous month to average 1.3 mb/d, while from a year before they increased by 88 tb/d, or 8%. Monthly exports of diesel were lower in May, dropping by 84 tb/d from the previous month. However, total exports were compensated by higher exports of gasoline.

Consequently, India’s net imports declined by 138 tb/d m-o-m to average 3.8 mb/d.

FSU
In May, total crude oil exports from the former Soviet Union declined by 166 tb/d, or 2%, to average 7.2 mb/d. Crude exports through the Russian pipeline also declined by 230 tb/d, or 5%, to average 4.3 mb/d.

Total shipments from the Black Sea through Novorossiysk rose by 17 tb/d m-o-m, or 2%, to average 702 tb/d. Total Baltic Sea exports dropped by 221 tb/d in May as shipments from Primorsk and UST Luga port terminals dropped by 128 tb/d and 93 tb/d, respectively. Druzhba pipeline total shipments fell by 30 tb/d to average 974 tb/d. Kozmino shipments dropped by a slight 3 tb/d, or 0.4%, to average 697 tb/d.

Exports through the Lukoil System declined from the previous month in the Barents Sea as the Varandey offshore platform reported a drop of 164 tb/d, while the drop in the Baltic Sea was less, as the Kalinigrad port terminal only declined by a slight 2 tb/d.

Russian Far East total exports were down by 18 tb/d, or 5%, from the previous month as exports from Aniva Bay port terminal declined by 11 tb/d and de Kastri port terminal exports were down by 8 tb/d from a month before. Central Asian total exports stood at 288 tb/d, higher by 6 tb/d. Black Sea total exports rose by 25 tb/d as a result of higher exports from Supsa port terminal and Batumi port terminal.

In the Mediterranean Sea, BTC supplies increased from the previous month by 65 tb/d, or 10%, to average 736 tb/d.

FSU total products exports increased by 70 tb/d or 2% from the previous month to average 3.2 mb/d. This gain in product exports came as a result of increased exports of gasoline, naphtha, jet and fuel oil, while this was offset by lower exports of VGO and gasoil, which declined from the previous month by 121 tb/d and 98 tb/d, respectively.

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