Stock Movements - July 2017

Source: OPEC_RP170711 7/12/2017, Location: Europe

OECD commercial oil stocks fell in May to stand at 3,015 mb, which is around 234 mb above the latest five-year average. Crude and products indicated surpluses of 148 mb and 86 mb above the seasonal norm, respectively. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks stood at 63.5 days in May, which is 3.6 days higher than the latest five-year average. Preliminary data for June shows that US total commercial oil stocks fell by 7.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 1,339 mb, indicating a surplus of 163 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude fell by 10.3 mb, while products rose by 2.6 mb, m-o-m. The latest information for China showed that total commercial oil inventories fell by 5.3 mb in May to stand at 376.6 mb. Within the components, crude stocks rose by 1.0 mb, while product stocks fell by 6.3 mb, m-o-m.

OECD
Preliminary data for May shows that total OECD commercial oil stocks fell by 12.9 mb to stand at 3,015 mb, which is around 37 mb lower than the same time one year ago, but 234 mb above the latest fiveyear average. Within the components, crude and products fell by 11.6 mb and 1.3 mb, m-o-m, respectively. All OECD regions witnessed stock draws.

OECD commercial crude stocks fell by 11.6 mb m-o-m May for the second consecutive month to stand at 1,529 mb, which is 3.6 mb above the same time a year ago and around 148 mb higher than the latest fiveyear average. While OECD Europe stocks witnessed a build, OECD Americas and OECD Asia Pacific experienced stock draws in commercial crude.

OECD product inventories fell by 1.3 mb m-o-m in May to stand at 1,486 mb, which is 40 mb below the same time a year ago, but 86 mb above the seasonal norm. OECD Europe witnessed astock draw, while OECD Americas and OECD Asia Pacific saw stock builds.

In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 1.0 mb in May to stand at 63.5 days, which is 1.2 days less than the same period in 2016, but 3.6 days higher than the latest five-year average. Within the regions, OECD Americas had 5.1 more days of forward cover than the historical average to stand at 63.0 days in May. OECD Europe stood 3.4 days higher than the seasonal average to finish the month at 70.2 days, while OECD Asia Pacific indicated a deficit of 0.9 days below the seasonal norm, averaging 53.1 days in May.

OECD Americas
Total commercial stocks in OECD Americas fell by 9.9 mb in May for the fourth consecutive month to stand at 1,595 mb, which is 6.7 mb below a year ago, but 171 mb higher than the seasonal norm. Within the components, crude fell by 10.6 mb, while product stocks rose by 0.8 mb, m-o-m.

At the end of May, commercial crude oil stocks in OECD Americas fell, ending the month at 853 mb, which is 16 mb above the same time one year ago and 131 mb above the latest five-year average. The decline was mainly driven by higher US crude throughput, which increased by nearly 300 tb/d to average 17.2 mb/d in May. This corresponds to a refinery utilisation rate of 93%, which is 0.8 percentage points higher than the April rate.

In contrast, commercial product stocks in OECD Americas rose by 0.8 mb m-o-m in May, the second consecutive monthly build, to stand at 742 mb, which is 22 mb less than the same time one year ago but 40 mb higher than the seasonal norm. This build was mainly driven by lower US demand compared to the previous month.

OECD Europe
OECD Europe’s total commercial stocks fell by 1.0 mb in May, ending the month at 1,012 mb, which is 4.0 mb lower than the same time a year ago, but 77 mb above the latest five-year average. Crude rose by 2.0 mb, while product stocks fell by 3.0 mb, m-o-m.

OECD Europe’s commercial crude stocks rose in May to stand at 426 mb, which is 0.9 mb higher than a year earlier and 22.0 mb higher than the latest five-year average. This build was driven by lower refinery throughput, which declined by around 250 tb/d to stand at 10.2 mb/d in May.

In contrast, OECD Europe’s commercial product stocks fell by 3.0 mb to end May at 586 mb, which is 4.9 mb lower than the same time a year ago, but 55 mb higher than the seasonal norm. The drop in product stocks could be attributed to higher demand in the European countries.

OECD Asia Pacific
OECD Asia Pacific’s total commercial oil stocks fell by 2.0 mb m-o-m in May to stand at 408 mb, which is 26 mb lower than a year ago and 14 mb lower than the five-year average. Within the components, crude fell by 2.9 mb, while product stocks rose by 0.9 mb, m-o-m, in May.

Crude inventories ended the month of May at 250 mb, which is 13.0 mb below a year ago and 4.4 mb below the the seasonal norm.

OECD Asia Pacific’s total product inventories ended May at 158 mb, standing 13.2 mb lower than the same time a year ago and 9.2 mb below the seasonal norm.

EU plus Norway
Preliminary data for May shows that total European stocks fell slightly, by 1.0 mb, following a massive drop of 19.0 mb in April. At 1,160.0 mb, European stocks are 5.7 mb, or 0.5%, lower than the same time a year ago, but 62.7 mb, or 5.7%, higher than the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude stocks went up by 2.0 mb, while product stocks fell by 3.0 mb, m-o-m.

European crude inventories rose in May, reversing the drop in April, to stand at 491.3 mb, which is 0.9 mb, or 0.2%, higher than the same period a year ago. Compared to the seasonal average, they were 12.8 mb, or 2.7%, higher. The build in crude oil stocks was driven by lower refinery throughput as European refiners were running at around 10.18 mb/d in May, which is about 250 tb/d lower than during April.

By contrast, European product stocks fell by 3.0 mb, ending May at 668.7 mb, which is 6.5 mb, or 1.0%, lower than the same time a year ago and 49.8 mb, or 8.1%, above the seasonal norm. Within products, distillate and residual fuel stocks saw builds, while gasoline and naphtha inventories witnessed draws.

Distillate stocks rose by 1.2 mb in May to end the month at 453.9 mb, which is 6.2 mb, or 1.4%, higher than the same time a year ago, and 52.3 mb, or 13.0%, above the latest five-year average. This build was driven mainly by lower demand.

Residual fuel oil stocks also rose by 0.1 mb in May to stand at 69.7 mb, which is 10.9 mb, or 13.5%, less than the same month a year ago, and 10.7 mb, or 13.3%, lower than the latest five-year average.

By contrast, gasoline stocks fell by 2.6 mb in May, ending the month at 119.6 mb, which is 1.7 mb, or 1.4%, lower than the same time one year ago, and 8.7 mb, or 7.8%, higher than the seasonal norm. Higher demand combined with lower output was behind the drop in gasoline stocks.

Naphtha stocks also fell by 1.8 mb in May to stand at 25.5 mb, which is 0.2 mb, or 0.7%, less than the same month a year ago, and 0.4 mb, or 1.6%, lower than the latest five-year average.

US
Preliminary data for June shows that US total commercial oil stocks fell by 7.7 mb, reversing the build of the last two months. At 1,339 mb, US commercial stocks stood at 13.0 mb, or 1.0%, lower than the same period a year ago, but 163 mb, or 13.9%, higher than the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude fell by 10.3 mb, while products rose by 2.6 mb, m-o-m.

US commercial crude stocks fell in June for the third consecutive month, to stand at 503 mb, which is 4.9 mb, or 1.0%, above the same time one year ago and 102.5 mb, or 25.6%, above the latest five-year average. The bulk of the fall in commercial crude stocks happened in the last week of June, dropping by 6.3 mb, which was much larger than expected. Crude oil inventories have fallen 11 of the last 13 reporting periods by 33 mb. The decline was mainly driven by lower crude imports, which declined by nearly 250 tb/d to average 7.9 mb/d in June. Higher crude runs at the end of the week ending June reaching 17.1 mb/d, an increase of 251 tb/d from last week, also contributed to the build in crude oil stocks.

In contrast, total product stocks rose by 2.6 mb in June, following a build of 12.4 mb in May, to stand at 835.9 mb. At this level, they were 17.9 mb, or 2.1%, down from the level seen at the same time in 2016, but 60.6 mb, or 7.8%, above the seasonal average. Within products, with the exception of propylene, all other products experienced stock draws.

Gasoline stocks fell by 3.0 mb in June for the second consecutive month to stand at 237.3 mb, which is 4.8 mb, or 2.0%, lower than the same period a year ago, but 14.4 mb, or 6.5%, above the latest five-year average. The drop came mainly from higher gasoline consumption averaging nearly 9.6 mb/d.

Distillate stocks also fell by 0.7 mb in June to stand at 150.4 mb, indicating a surplus of 1.2 mb, or 0.8%, over the same period a year ago, and 19.9 mb, or 15.2%, above the latest five-year average. The fall in middle distillate stocks mainly came as a result of higher consumption, which increased by about 100 tb/d to stand at 4.14 mb/d.

Residual fuel stocks also fell by 3.2 mb, ending June at 36.7 mb, which is 3.6 mb, or 8.9%, below the same period a year ago and 2.0 mb, or 5.1%, lower than the latest five-year average.

Japan
In Japan, total commercial oil stocks fell by 4.1 mb in May, reversing the stock build of last month to stand at 141.2 mb. At this level, they were 14.6 mb, or 9.4%, less than the same time a year ago and 22.9 mb, or 14.0%, below the five-year average. Within the components, crude fell by 5.9 mb, while product stocks rose by 1.8 mb, m-o-m.

Japanese commercial crude oil stocks fell in May to stand at 81.6 mb, which is 11.6 mb, or 12.4%, below the same period a year ago, and 16.8 mb, or 17.1%, below the seasonal norm. The drop was driven by lower crude imports, which declined by around 750 tb/d, or 21%, to average 2.8 mb/d. Lower crude throughputs limited further declines in crude oil stocks. Indeed, crude runs fell by around 190 tb/d, or 8.0%, to stand at 3.0 mb/d.

In contrast, Japan’s total product inventories rose by 1.8 mb in May to stand at 59.6 mb, which is 3.0 mb, or 4.8%, lower than the same month the previous year, and 6.1 mb, or 9.3%, less than the seasonal norm. This stock build came on the back of lower oil product sales, which fell by around 258 b/d m-o-m to stand at 2.7 mb/d. Within products, all products witnessed stock builds, except naphtha.

Gasoline stocks rose in May by 0.4 mb to stand at 11.9 mb, which is 0.8 mb, or 7.3%, higher than the same time a year ago, but 0.9 mb, or 6.7%, below the latest five-year average. The build was driven by higher output, which increased by 4.0% from the previous month.

Distillate stocks also rose, increasing by 1.2 mb in May, to stand at 24.8 mb, which is 2.1 mb, or 8.0%, below one year ago at the same time, and 2.7 mb, or 9.9%, below the seasonal average. Within the distillate components, jet fuel and kerosene rose by 10.2% and 19.8%, respectively, while gasoil fell by 8%, m-o-m.

Total residual fuel oil stocks rose by 0.7 mb in May to stand at 14.0 mb, which is 1.0 mb, or 7.5%, higher than the same period a year ago, but 1.1 mb, or 7.1%, below the latest five-year average. Within the fuel oil components, fuel oil A stocks fell by 0.2%, while fuel B.C rose by 8.3%. The fall in fuel oil A was driven by lower output, which fell by almost 15%, while the build in fuel B.C was attributed to lower domestic sales as output declined.

China
The latest information for China showed that total commercial oil inventories fell by 5.3 mb in May for the third consecutive month to settle at 376.6 mb, which is 20.1 mb lower than the previous year. Within the components, crude stocks rose by 1.0 mb, while product stocks fell by 6.3 mb, m-o-m.

In May, commercial crude stocks rose by 1.0 mb, for the second consecutive month to stand at 222.3 mb, which is 8.8 mb below last year at the same time. This build was driven mainly by higher crude imports as an increase in crude runs and domestic crude production limited further builds in crude oil stocks.

In contrast, total product stocks in China fell by 6.3 mb in May to stand at 154.2 mb, which is 11.3 mb below the same time a year ago. Within products, diesel and kerosene inventories saw declines, while gasoline stocks witnessed builds.

Diesel inventories fell sharply in May by 6.1 mb for the third consecutive month to stand at 64.2 mb, which is 11.7 mb below a year ago at the same time. The decline was mainly driven by strong demand, which increased by a massive 7% supported by heavy industry, mining and infrastructure activities.

Kerosene stocks also fell in May by 0.5 mb to stand at 18.7 mb, which is 0.4 mb lower than the same time last year.

In contrast, gasoline stocks rose by 0.3 mb in May to stand at 71.3 mb, which is 0.8 mb higher than the same period a year ago. The build was driven by higher gasoline output due to the increase in crude oil throughput.

Singapore and Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA)
Singapore
At the end of May, product stocks in Singapore fell by 5.2 mb to stand at 44.1 mb, which is 13.7 mb, or 23.7%, below the same period a year ago. Within products, light distillates and fuel oil witnessed stock draws, while middle distillates saw builds.

Middle distillate stocks rose by 1.4 mb in May to end the month at 13.3 mb, which is 1.4 mb, or 11.8%, higher than the same period a year ago.

In contrast, residual fuel oil stocks and light distillate stocks fell in May by 4.4 mb and 2.1 mb to stand at 19.0 mb and 11.8 mb, respectively. Both product stocks remained below the same time one year ago.

Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA)
Product stocks in ARA fell by 5.9 mb in May to end the month at 43.0 mb, which is 4.4 mb, or 9.3%, higher than at the same time a year ago. Within products, with the exception of naphtha, all other products witnessed stock draws.

Gasoline and gasoil stocks fell by 1.2 mb and 3.2 mb in May to stand at 8.1 and 20.2 mb, respectively. Gasoline stocks remained 0.6 mb, or 6.5%, below the same time a year ago, while gasoil stood at 3.8 mb, or 15.8%, above last year at the same time.

Fuel oil inventories fell by 2.0 mb to stand at 5.6 mb, which is 2.0 mb, or 26%, below the same time a year ago. In contrast, naphtha inventories went up by 0.8 mb to stand at 3.1 mb in May, which is 1.5 mb or nearly double the level at the same time a year ago.




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