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Balance of Supply and Demand - July 2017

Source: OPEC_RP170712 7/12/2017, Location: Europe

Demand for OPEC crude in 2017 is estimated at 32.3 mb/d, which is 0.3 mb/d higher than the 2016 level. In 2018, the demand for OPEC crude is projected at 32.2 mb/d, which is around 0.1mb/d less than this year.

Balance of supply and demand in 2017
Demand for OPEC crude in 2017 was revised up by 0.2 mb/d from the previous month’s report. This upward adjustment came mainly from the downward revision to non-OPEC supply, with world oil demand remaining unchanged. Within the quarters, the first quarter was revised up by 0.1 mb/d, while the second quarter was unchanged. The third and the fourth quarters were revised up by 0.3 mb/d and 0.5 mb/d, respectively.

Compared to the same quarters of last year, the demand for OPEC crude is projected to increase by 0.3 mb/d to average 32.3 mb/d. The first quarter is expected to increase by 1.0 mb/d, while the second quarter is estimated to fall by 0.2 mb/d. The third and the fourth quarter are projected to increase by 0.1 mb/d and 0.3 mb/d, respectively.

Balance of supply and demand in 2018
Based on the first forecast for demand and non-OPEC supply (including OPEC NGLs and non-conventional oil) for the year 2018, the demand for OPEC crude next year is projected to decline slightly by 0.1 mb/d y-o-y to average 32.2 mb/d.

Compared to the same quarters of last year, the first quarter is expected to increase by 0.3 mb/d, while other quarters are forecast to drop by 0.2 mb/d.

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