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Stock Movements - August 2017

Source: OPEC_RP170811 8/10/2017, Location: Europe

OECD commercial oil stocks fell by 21.9 mb in June to stand at 3,033 mb, which is around 252 mb above the latest five-year average. Crude and products indicated surpluses of 142 mb and 110 mb above the seasonal norm, respectively. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks stood at 63.8 days in June, which is 4.1 days higher than the latest five-year average. Preliminary data for July shows that US total commercial oil stocks fell by 22.4 mb to stand at 1,316 mb. At this level, they are 137 mb higher than the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks fell by 21 mb and 1.4 mb, respectively. The latest information for China showed that total commercial oil inventories rose by 9.7 mb in June to settle at 386.3 mb. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 9.4 mb and 0.3 mb, respectively.

OECD
Preliminary data for June shows that total OECD commercial oil stocks fell by 21.9 mb to stand at 3,033 mb, which is around 21 mb lower than the same time one year ago, but 252 mb above the latest fiveyear average. Within the components, crude and products fell by 13.0 mb and 8.9 mb, m-o-m, respectively. All OECD regions witnessed stock draws.

OECD commercial crude stocks fell by 13.0 mb m-o-m in June for the third consecutive month to stand at 1,519 mb, which is 3.6 mb below the same time a year ago and around 142 mb higher than the latest fiveyear average. While OECD Europe stocks witnessed a build, OECD Americas and OECD Asia Pacific experienced stock draws in commercial crude.

OECD product inventories also fell by 8.9 mb m-o-m in June to stand at 1,514 mb, which is 17 mb below the same time a year ago, but 110 mb above the seasonal norm. All OECD regions witnessed stock draws.

In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 0.7 days in June to stand at 63.8 days, which is 0.4 days less than the same period in 2016, but 4.1 days higher than the latest five-year average. Within the regions, OECD Americas had 5.4 more days of forward cover than the historical average to stand at 63.6 days in June. OECD Europe stood 3.7 days higher than the seasonal average to finish the month at 69.3 days, while OECD Asia Pacific indicated a surplus of 0.2 days above the seasonal norm, averaging 53.8 days in June.

OECD Americas
Total OECD Americas commercial stocks fell by 18.5 mb in June for the fifth consecutive month to stand at 1,607 mb, which is 1.9 mb below a year ago, but 175 mb higher than the seasonal norm. Within the components, crude and products stocks fell by 14.0 mb and 4.5 mb, respectively.

At the end of June, commercial crude oil stocks in OECD Americas fell, ending the month at 841 mb, which are 5.7 mb above the same time one year ago and 122 mb above the latest five-year average. The decline was mainly driven by higher US crude throughput combined with lower crude imports.

Commercial product stocks in OECD Americas also fell by 4.5 mb, m-o-m in June, reversing the massive build of last two months. At 766 mb, they are 7.6 mb less than the same time one year ago, but 53 mb higher than the seasonal norm. This drop was mainly driven by higher US demand compared to the previous month, particularly gasoline demand during diving season.

OECD Europe
OECD Europe’s total commercial stocks fell by 2.8 mb in June, ending the month at 1,009 mb, which is 1.6 mb higher than the same time a year ago, and 81 mb above the latest five-year average. Crude rose by 1.2 mb, while product stocks fell by 4.0 mb, m-o-m.

OECD Europe’s commercial crude stocks rose in June to stand at 429 mb, which is 5.0 mb higher than a year earlier and 26 mb higher than the latest five-year average. This build could be attributed to lower domestic North Sea production as higher refinery throughput went down in June compared to May.

In contrast, OECD Europe’s commercial product stocks fell by 4.0 mb to end June at 580 mb, which is 3.4 mb lower than the same time a year ago, but 55 mb higher than the seasonal norm. The drop in product stocks could be attributed to higher demand in the European countries.

OECD Asia Pacific
OECD Asia Pacific’s total commercial oil stocks fell slightly by 0.5 mb m-o-m in June to stand at 418 mb, which is 20 mb lower than a year ago, and 4.1 mb lower than the five-year average. Within the components, crude and product stocks fell by 0.2 mb and 0.3 mb, m-o-m, respectively.

Crude inventories ended the month of June at 249 mb, which are 14.3 mb below a year ago, and 6.7 mb below the seasonal norm.

OECD Asia Pacific’s total product inventories ended June at 169 mb, standing 6.1 mb lower than the same time a year ago, and 2.7 mb above the seasonal norm.

EU plus Norway
Preliminary data for June shows that total European stocks fell by 2.8 mb, following a drop of 7.0 mb in May. At 1,151 mb, European stocks are 7.7 mb, or 0.7%, lower than the same time a year ago, but 60.8 mb, or 5.6%, higher than the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude stocks went up by 1.2 mb, while product stocks fell by 4.0 mb, m-o-m.

European crude inventories rose in June to stand at 491.4 mb, which is 1.6 mb, or 0.3%, higher than the same period a year ago. Compared to the seasonal average, they were 14.6 mb, or 3.1%, higher. The build in crude oil stocks came despite higher refinery throughput as European refiners were running at around 10.4 mb/d in June, which is about 190 tb/d lower than during May.

By contrast, European total product stocks fell by 4.0 mb, ending June at 659.7 mb, which is 9.3 mb, or 1.4%, lower than the same time a year ago, and 46.3 mb, or 7.5%, above the seasonal norm. Within products, distillate and gasoline stocks witness draws, while residual fuel oil and naphtha inventories saw builds.

Gasoline stocks fell by 0.9 mb in June, ending the month at 117.0 mb, which is 2.2 mb, or 1.8%, lower than the same time one year ago, and 7.8 mb, or 7.1%, higher than the seasonal norm. Higher demand combined with lower output was behind the drop in gasoline stocks.

Distillate stocks fell also by 4.8 mb in June to end the month at 447.2 mb, in line with the same time a year ago, but 48.3 mb, or 12.1%, above the latest five-year average. This fall was driven mainly by higher enduser consumption.

By contrast, residual fuel oil stocks rose by 0.8 mb in June to stand at 69.1 mb, which is 8.9 mb, or 11.5%, less than the same month a year ago, and 10.0 mb, or 12.6%, lower than the latest five-year average.

Naphtha stocks also rose by 0.9 mb in June to stand at 26.4 mb, which is 1.8 mb, or 7.4%, higher than the same month a year ago, and 0.1 mb, or 0.4%, lower than the latest five-year average.

US
Preliminary data for July shows that US total commercial oil stocks fell by 22.4 mb, for the second consecutive months to stand at 1,316.4 mb. At this level, they are 51 mb, or 3.7%, lower than the same period a year ago, but 137 mb, or 11.6%, higher than the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks fell by 21 mb and 1.4 mb, respectively.

US commercial crude stocks fell in July for the fourth consecutive month, to stand at 481.9 mb, which is 8.1 mb, or 1.7%, below the same time one year ago, and 94 mb, or 24%, above the latest five-year average. The drop in commercial crude stocks was driven by higher refinery runs, increasing by more than 150 tb/d in July compare to June, reaching 17.3 mb/d. Refineries were running at 94.6%, one percentage point higher than last month. Lower crude imports also contributed to the fall in crude oil stocks. In the week ending 4 August crude inventories fell further by 6.4 mb to 475.4 mb for six consecutive weeks. Crude inventories in Cushing, Oklahoma declined by 3.7 mb in July m-o-m to stand at 55.8 mb.

Total product stocks also fell by 1.4 mb in July to stand at 834.5 mb. At this level, they were 42.9 mb, or 4.9%, down from the level seen at the same time in 2016, but 43.3 mb, or 5.5%, above the seasonal average. Within products, with the exception of propylene, all other products experienced stock draws.

Gasoline stocks fell by 9.6 mb in July for the third consecutive month to stand at 227.7 mb, which is 12.6 mb, or 5.3%, lower than the same period a year ago, but 6.2 mb, or 2.8%, above the latest five-year average. The drop came mainly from higher gasoline consumption averaging nearly 9.8 mb/d in July, more than 220 tb/d above the previous month.

Distillate stocks also fell by 1.0 mb in July to stand at 149.4 mb, indicating a deficit of 6.6 mb, or 4.2%, over the same period a year ago, and 14.2 mb, or 10.5%, above the latest five-year average. The fall in middle distillate stocks mainly came as a result of higher consumption, which increased by about 50 tb/d to stand at 4.2 mb/d.

Residual fuel and jet fuel stocks also fell by 3.0 mb and 0.6 mb, ending July at 33.7 mb and 40.4 mb, respectively. Both products stocks stood below last year at the same time, while jet fuel stocks are 0.3 mb above the five-year average. Residual fuel stocks remained 3.8 mb less than the historical average.

Japan
In Japan, total commercial oil stocks fell by 1.1 mb in June, following a stock-draw last month to stand at 140.1 mb. At this level, they were 15.3 mb, or 9.8%, less than the same time a year ago, and 24.1 mb, or 14.7%, below the five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks fell by 0.5 mb and 0.6 mb, m-o-m, respectively.

Japanese commercial crude oil stocks fell in June to stand at 81.1 mb, which is 15.3 mb, or 15.8%, below the same period a year ago, and 19.9 mb, or 19.7%, below the seasonal norm. The drop was driven by lower crude throughputs which declined by 142 tb/d, or 4.8%, to average 2.8 mb/d. Higher crude imports limited further draw in crude oil stocks. Indeed, crude runs rose by around 30 tb/d, or 0.9%, to stand at 2.1 mb/d.

Japan’s total product inventories also rose by 0.6 mb in June to stand at 59.0 mb, which is in line with the same month the previous year, but 4.2 mb, or 6.7 %, less than the seasonal norm. This stock build came on the back of lower oil imports as oil product sales rose slightly. Within products, distillates stocks went up, while others products witnessed a stock-draw.

Distillate stocks rose by 0.8 mb in June to stand at 25.6 mb, which is 0.6 mb, or 2.4%, below one year ago at the same time, and 1.2 mb, or 4.5%, below the seasonal average. Within the distillate components, jet fuel and kerosene stocks rose by 1.9% and 13.1%, while gasoil fell by 5.2%, m-o-m.

In contrast, gasoline stocks fell in June by 0.6 mb to stand at 11.3 mb, which is 0.5 mb, or 4.5%, higher than the same time a year ago, but 0.6 mb, or 5.0%, below the latest five-year average. The draw was driven by lower domestic sales, which declined by 4.0% from the previous month.

Total residual fuel oil stocks also fell by 0.5 mb in June to stand at 13.5 mb, which is 0.1 mb, or 0.4% higher than the same period a year ago, but 0.7 mb, or 5.3%, below the latest five-year average. Within the fuel oil components, fuel oil A and fuel B.C fell by 0.9% and 5.2%, respectively. The fall in both products was driven by lower output combined with higher domestic sales.

China
The latest information for China showed that total commercial oil inventories rose by 9.7 mb in June reversing the fall of last three consecutive months to settle at 386.3 mb, which is 7.3 mb lower than the previous year. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 9.4 mb and 0.3 mb, respectively.

In June, commercial crude stocks rose by 9.4 mb, for the third consecutive month to stand at 231.7 mb, which is 0.7 mb below last year at the same time. This build was driven mainly by higher crude imports combined with lower crude runs, however lower domestic crude production limited further builds in crude oil stocks.

Total product stocks in China also rose by 0.3 mb in June to stand at 154.6 mb, which is 6.6 mb below the same time a year ago. Within products, kerosene and gasoline inventories saw declines, while diesel stocks witnessed builds.

Gasoline stocks fell by 1.7 mb in June to stand at 69.7 mb, which is 0.5 mb lower than the same period a year ago. The drop was driven by lower gasoline output due to the decline in crude oil throughput. Higher gasoline demand also contributed to the fall in gasoline stocks.

Kerosene stocks also fell in June by 0.2 mb to stand at 18.6 mb, which is 1.4 mb lower than the same time last year.

In contrast, diesel inventories rose by 2.2 mb in June reversing the fall of last three months. At 66.4 mb, diesel stocks are 4.7 mb below a year ago at the same time. The build was mainly driven by weak demand as high temperature and heavy runs impacted outdoor activities and projects.

Singapore and Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA)
Singapore
At the end of June, product stocks in Singapore fell by 0.8 mb to stand at 43.4 mb, which is 6.9 mb, or 13.8%, below the same period a year ago. Within products, light distillates and middle distillates witnessed stock draws, while fuel oil saw builds.

Middle distillate and light distillate stocks fell in June by 3.3 mb and 0.8 mb to stand at 11.1 mb and 10.0 mb, respectively. The stocks draw in both products was driven by lower demand in the region. Both product stocks remained below the same time one year ago.

In contrast, residual fuel oil stocks rose by 3.2 mb in June reversing the stock draw of last three months. At 22.2 mb, fuel oil stocks stood at 3.4 mb, or 13.1%, lower than the same period a year ago.

Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA)
Product stocks in ARA rose by 1.0 mb in June to end the month at 43.9 mb, which is 3.3 mb, or 6.9%, higher than at the same time a year ago. Within products, the picture was mixt, gasoil, fuel oil and naphtha stocks went up, while gasoline and jet oil inventories went up.

Fuel oil and gasoil stocks rose by 1.6 mb and 1.1 mb in June to stand at 6.4 and 21.9 mb, respectively. Fuel oil stocks remained 0.7 mb, or 10%, below the same time a year ago, while gasoil stood at 1.2 mb, or 5.0%, above last year at the same time.

Gasoline and jet oil inventories fell by 0.8 mb and 0.9 mb to stand at 7.4 mb and 5.1 mb respectively. Gasoline stocks stood at 3.0 mb, or 29%, below the same time a year ago, while jet oil stocks remained at 0.1 mb or 0.8% higher than the same time a year ago.

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