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Stock Movements - October 2017

Source: OPEC_RP171011 10/11/2017, Location: Europe

OECD commercial oil stocks fell by 24.7 mb in August to stand at 2,996 mb, which is around 171 mb above the latest five-year average. Crude and products indicated surpluses of 146 mb and 25 mb above the seasonal norm, respectively. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks stood at 63.2 days in August, which is 2.6 days higher than the latest five-year average.

Preliminary data for September shows that US total commercial oil stocks fell by 16 mb to stand at 1,294.4 mb. At this level, they are 62 mb lower than the same period a year ago, but 104 mb higher than the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude went up by 2.6 mb, while product stocks fell by 18.6 mb, m-o-m.

The latest information for China showed that total commercial oil inventories fell by 9.3 mb in August for the second consecutive month to settle at 371.2 mb, which is 4.7 mb lower than the previous year. Within the components, crude and product stocks fell by 8.0 mb and 1.3 mb, m-o-m, respectively.

OECD
Preliminary data for August shows that total OECD commercial oil stocks fell by 16.1 mb for the third consecutive month to stand at 2,996 mb, which is around 94 mb lower than the same time one year ago, but 171 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude fell by 24.7 mb, while product stocks rose by 8.7 mb, m-o-m. OECD Americas and OECD Asia Pacific witnessed stock draws, while OECD Europe saw builds. It should be noted that the overhang has been reduced by 34 mb from a month earlier and by 167 mb from January 2017.

OECD commercial crude stocks fell by 24.7 mb m-o-m in August for the fifth consecutive month to stand at 1,506 mb, which is almost in line with the same time a year ago, but around 146 mb higher than the latest five-year average. Inventories in all OECD regions experienced draws.

In contrast, OECD product inventories rose by 8.7 mb m-o-m in August to stand at 1,490 mb, which is 93 mb below the same time a year ago, but 25 mb above the seasonal norm. All OECD regions saw stock builds.

In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks remained unchanged at 63.2 days in August, which is 2.1 days below the same period in 2016, but 2.6 days higher than the latest five-year average. Within the regions, OECD Americas had 3.3 more days of forward cover than the historical average to stand at 62.5 days in August. OECD Europe stood at 2.1 days higher than the seasonal average to finish the month at 69.1 days, while OECD Asia Pacific indicated a small surplus of 0.6 days higher than the seasonal norm, averaging 54.5 days in August.

OECD Americas
Total commercial stocks in OECD Americas fell by 19.5 mb in August for the third consecutive month to stand at 1,561 mb, which is 74 mb below a year ago, but 112 mb higher than the seasonal norm. Within the components, crude fell by 20.0 mb, while products stocks rose slightly by 0.5 mb, m-o-m.

At the end of August, commercial crude oil stocks in OECD Americas fell, ending the month at 816 mb, which is 17.8 mb below the same time one year ago, but 104 mb above the latest five-year average. Higher refinery runs combined with lower crude imports were behind the drop in OECD crude oil stocks.

Commercial product stocks in OECD Americas rose slightly by 0.5 mb in August, reversing the stock draw of last two months. At 745 mb, they were 56 mb less than the same time one year ago, but 8.2 mb higher than the seasonal norm. This build was likely driven by generally lower consumption in OECD Americas.

OECD Europe
OECD Europeís total commercial stocks rose by 4.0 mb in August, ending the month at 1,002 mb, which is 11 mb lower than the same time a year ago, but 60 mb above the latest five-year average. Crude stocks fell by 2.2 mb, while product stocks rose by 6.2 mb, m-o-m.

OECD Europeís commercial crude stocks fell in August by 2.2 mb to stand at 437 mb, which is 13 mb higher than a year earlier and 39 mb higher than the latest five-year average. This drop could be attributed to higher refinery throughput combined with lower North Sea production.

In contrast, OECD Europeís commercial product stocks rose by 6.2 mb to end August at 566 mb, which is 24 mb lower than the same time a year ago, but 21 mb higher than the seasonal norm. The build in product stocks could be attributed to lower demand in the European countries.

OECD Asia Pacific
OECD Asia Pacificís total commercial oil stocks fell slightly by 0.6 mb in August to stand at 433 mb, which is 9.1 mb lower than a year ago and 0.5 mb lower than the five-year average. Within the components, crude fell by 2.5 mb, while product stocks rose by 1.9 mb, m-o-m.

Crude inventories ended the month of August at 254 mb, which is 4.5 mb above a year ago and 3.3 mb above the seasonal norm.

OECD Asia Pacificís total product inventories ended August at 179 mb, standing 13.7 mb lower than the same time a year ago and 3.8 mb lower than the seasonal norm.

EU plus Norway
Preliminary data for August shows that total European stocks rose by 4.0 mb, following a build of 4.8 mb in July. At 1,149 mb, European stocks were 16.3 mb, or 1.4%, lower than the same time a year ago, but 48.1 mb, or 4.4%, higher than the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude stocks fell by 2.2 mb, while product inventories rose by 6.2 mb, m-o-m.

European crude inventories fell in August to stand at 496 mb, which is 5.3 mb, or 1.1%, higher than the same period a year ago. Compared to the seasonal average, they were 19.5 mb, or 4.1%, higher. The drop came on the back of higher refinery throughput, which increased to around 10.6 mb/d in August compared to Julyís level.

European product stocks rose by 6.2 mb, ending August at 653 mb, which is 21.6 mb, or 3.2%, lower than the same time a year ago, but 28.6 mb, or 4.6%, above the seasonal norm. Within products, gasoline and distillate stocks saw builds, while residual fuel oil and naphtha inventories witnessed draws.

Gasoline stocks rose by 2.9 mb in August, ending the month at 114.2 mb, which is 0.5 mb, or 0.4%, lower than the same time one year ago, and 5.8 mb, or 5.4%, higher than the seasonal norm.

Distillate stocks rose by 4.8 mb in August to end the month at 445.7 mb, indicating a draw of 13.7 mb, or 3.0%, compared to the same time a year ago, but they were 30.8 mb, or 7.4%, higher than the latest fiveyear average. Higher output, combined with lower domestic consumption, was behind the gain in both products.

In contrast, residual fuel oil stocks fell slightly by 0.1 mb in August to stand at 69.0 mb, which is 7.8 mb, or 10.2%, less than the same month a year ago, but 10.3 mb, or 12.9%, lower than the latest five-year average.

US
Preliminary data for September shows that US total commercial oil stocks fell by 16 mb, for the fourth consecutive month to stand at 1,294.4 mb, which is 62 mb, or 4.6%, lower than the same period a year ago, but still 105 mb, or 8.8%, higher than the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude went up by 2.6 mb, while product stocks fell by 18.6 mb, m-o-m.

US commercial crude stocks rose in September to end the month at 465 mb, which is 6.6 mb below last year at the same time but 81 mb above the latest five-year average. After witnessing three consecutive weeks of commercial crude oil stock builds following Hurricane Harvey, US commercial crude stocks were followed by another two weeks of draws with a substantial drop of 6 mb in the week ending 29 September. This was mainly driven by the record-high weekly crude oil exports, reaching 2.0 mb/d and a drop in crude imports by 0.2 mb/d to average 7.2 mb/d. PADD3 crude oil stocks plunged by 4.4 mb from a week earlier. Crude inventories in Cushing, Oklahoma rose by 4.5 mb during the end of September to stand at 62.5 mb.

By contrast, total product stocks fell substantially by 18.6 mb to stand at 829.5 mb in September, which is 55 mb, or 6.2%, down from the level seen at the same time in 2016, but 24 mb, or 2.9%, Graph 9 - 3: US weekly commercial crude oil inventories above the seasonal average. Within products, residual fuel oil and jet fuel rose, while major products experienced stock draws.

Gasoline stocks fell by 7.8 mb in September to stand at 218.9 mb, which is 8.8 mb, or 3.8%, below a year ago at the same time, while they remained 1.7 mb, or 0.8%, above the seasonal norm. Following three consecutive weeks of declines totalling 13.7 mb, gasoline stocks in the US reversed the trend to build by 2.7 mb over the last two weeks, driven mainly by a drop in demand, which declined by almost 0.3 mb/d to average 9.2 mb/d, in line with the seasonal decline at the end of the driving season. Gasoline production remained strong at almost 10 mb/d. The gasoline stock build came despite a fall in gasoline imports by around 180 tb/d to average 0.8 mb/d in the same week.

Distillate stocks also fell by 12.3 mb in September to stand at 135.4 mb, indicating a deficit of 25.6 mb, or 15.9%, compared to the same period a year ago, and 4.3 mb, or 3.1%, below the latest five-year average. Since Hurricane Harvey, US distillate stocks have continued to drop for five weeks in a row, bringing the total US distillate stock draw to around 11 mb. This drop has switched the difference to the five-year average from a surplus of 13 mb in the week before the hurricane to now stand at 4.3 mb below this average in the week ending 29 September. The drop in distillate stocks came on the back on higher demand and exports more than offsetting the increase in output. This tightness in the distillates market ahead of the winter season should support domestic refinery margins, as demand for gasoline wanes on the expected seasonal low. In contrast, residual fuel and jet fuel stocks rose by 2.0 mb and 4.3 mb to end September at 36.6 mb and 43.4 mb, respectively. Both product stocks stood below last year at the same time. Compared to the fiveyear average, residual fuel was higher at 1.3 mb and jet fuel was up at 2.8 mb.

Japan
In Japan, total commercial oil stocks fell by 1.2 mb in August, reversing the stock build of last month to stand at 147.1 mb, which is 6.4 mb, or 4.2%, less than the same time a year ago and 18.4 mb, or 11.1%, below the five-year average. Within the components, crude stocks went down by 5.0 mb, while product stocks rose by 3.8 mb, m-o-m.

Japanese commercial crude oil stocks fell in August to stand at 81.5 mb, which is 4.5 mb, or 5.3%, below the same period a year ago, and 12.4 mb, or 13.2%, below the seasonal norm. The drop was driven by lower crude imports, which declined by 145 tb/d, or 4.3%, to average 3.2 mb/d. Higher crude throughput also contributed to the drop in crude oil stocks. Indeed, crude runs rose by more than 206 tb/d, or 6.5%, to stand at 3.4 mb/d.

By contrast, Japanís total product inventories rose by 3.8 mb in August to stand at 65.6 mb, which is 1.9 mb, or 2.8%, lower than the same month the previous year, and 6.0 mb, or 8.4%, lower than the seasonal norm. All main product categories witnessed stock builds.

Distillate stocks rose by 2.9 mb in August to stand at 30.1 mb, which is 3.0 mb, or 9.2%, below one year ago at the same time, and 3.9 mb, or 11.5%, below the seasonal average. Within the distillate components, gasoil and kerosene stocks rose by 5% and 27%, respectively, while jet fuel fell by around 10%, m-o-m. The build in gasoil and kerosene was driven mainly by the increase in output. In contrast, lower jet fuel production led to the drop in jet fuel inventories.

Gasoline stocks also rose by 0.2 mb in August to stand at 10.6 mb, which is 0.3 mb, or 3.4%, higher than the same time a year ago, but 1.0 mb, or 8.4%, below the latest five-year average. The fall was driven by higher domestic sales, which rose by 13.0% from the previous month. Higher imports combined with an increase in production were behind the build in gasoline inventories.

Total residual fuel oil stocks rose by 0.2 mb in August to stand at 14.1 mb, which is 0.4 mb, or 2.8%, higher than the same period a year ago, but 1.6 mb, or 10.0%, below the latest five-year average. Within the fuel oil components, fuel oil A fell by 0.7% on the back of higher exports combined with lower output, while fuel B.C rose by 2.5 mb, mainly due to higher output as well as lower domestic sales.

China
The latest information for China showed that total commercial oil inventories fell by 9.3 mb in August for the second consecutive month to settle at 371.2 mb, which is 4.7 mb lower than the previous year. Within the components, crude and product stocks fell by 8.0 mb and 1.3 mb, m-o-m, respectively.

In August, commercial crude stocks fell by 8.0 mb, reversing the builds of the last four consecutive months. At 225.8 mb, crude oil stocks were 3.1 mb below last year at the same time due to a combination of three factors, namely higher crude throughput, which rose by 3.6%, lower crude imports, by nearly 2.4%, as well as lower domestic crude production, which fell by 1.8%.

Total product stocks in China also fell in August by 1.3 mb to end the month at 145.4 mb, which is 1.6 mb below the same time a year ago. Within products, kerosene and diesel witnessed stock draws, while gasoline remained unchanged from the previous month.

Diesel inventories fell by 1.0 mb in August to stand at 61.4 mb, which is 0.2 mb above a year ago at the same time. Kerosene stocks also fell in August, dropping by 0.3 mb to stand at 19.2 mb, which is 0.9 mb higher than the same time last year. The drop in both products was driven by lower gasoline output due to the decline in crude oil throughput combined with higher domestic demand from industrial, mining and infrastructure in the case of diesel products.

Gasoline stocks remained unchanged in August to stand at 64.7 mb, which is 2.8 mb lower than the same period a year ago.

Singapore and Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA)
Singapore
At the end of August, product stocks in Singapore rose by 1.6 mb to stand at 51.5 mb, which is 3.2 mb, or 6.7%, above the same period a year ago. Within products, fuel oil went up, while light and middle distillates witnessed stock draws.

Middle and light distillate stocks fell in August by 0.3 mb and 0.9 mb to stand at 12.9 mb and 12.3 mb, respectively. The stock draws in both products were driven by higher exports from the region. Both product stocks remained below the same time one year ago.

In contrast, residual fuel oil stocks rose by 2.9 mb in August for the third consecutive month. At 26.4 mb, fuel oil stocks stood at 5.8 mb, or 28.4%, higher than the same period a year ago.

Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA)
Product stocks in ARA rose by 2.3 mb in August to end the month at 44.0 mb, which is almost in line with the same time a year ago. All product categories saw increases, with the exception of fuel oil.

Gasoline and jet fuel oil stocks rose by 0.5 mb and 2.0 mb in August to stand at 2.6 mb and 8.9 mb, respectively. Fuel oil stocks remained 1.5 mb, or 28%, above the same time a year ago, while gasoil stood at 2.9 mb, or 27%, below last year at the same time.

In contrast, fuel oil stocks fell by 0.2 mb in August to stand at 20.4 mb, which is 20 mb above last year during the same month.

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