Non-OPEC supply in 2018 was revised down by 94 tb/d compared to last month’s analysis to average 58.54 mb/d, and now is expected to grow at a slower pace, which was also revised down by 71 tb/d to 0.87 mb/d y-o-y, compared to the previous month’s MOMR.
This is mainly due to lower-than-expected supply forecast for Mexico, Norway, Other OECD Europe, Australia, India and Brazil, while the expectations for Canada, Colombia and China were revised up this month. As a result, overall non-OPEC supply growth for the next year was revised down by 0.07 mb/d to average 0.87 mb/d. The US, Canada, Brazil, the UK, Kazakhstan, Ghana and Australia, are expected to be the key countries driving growth next year, in contrast to Mexico, China, Azerbaijan Colombia and Oman, which are expected to see a further decline in oil supply.
Highlights actual non-OPEC quarterly oil supply in 2016 the estimate for 2017 and forecast for 2018. The quarterly distribution for nonOPEC supply in 2017 indicates the regular seasonal pattern due to maintenance, particularly in offshore areas, but with higher production levels compared to the same quarters in 2016. 4Q17 is forecast to be the quarter showing the highest level of oil supply at 58.20 mb/d, compared with other quarters. For 2018, due to the increase in US shale production, higher growth is expected, as well as a higher quarterly distribution throughout the year.
1H18 is forecast higher by 0.64 mb/d than 2H17, and 2H18 is forecast higher by 0.41 mb/d than the first half, averaging 58.83 mb/d.