Balance of Supply and Demand - Dec08

Source: OPEC_RP081212 12/16/2008, Location: Europe

Estimate for 2008
The supply/demand balance for 2008 has been revised down to reflect lower demand and lower supply expectations. The demand for OPEC crude in 2008 is now forecast at 31.63 mb/d, a decline of 0.7 mb/d from 2007 and following a downward revision of 200,000 b/d. On a quarterly basis the demand for OPEC crude is estimated at 32.51 mb/d, 30.92 mb/d, 31.53 mb/d and 31.57 mb/d for the first, second, third, and fourth quarters, respectively. However, required crude for the fourth quarter of 2008 is now estimated to be 0.5 mb/d lower than last month’s assessment.

Forecast for 2009
Based on a substantial downward revision in world oil demand, demand for OPEC crude is expected to average 30.22 mb/d, a downward revision of around 0.7 mb/d from last month’s report. The quarterly distribution shows that demand for OPEC crude is now expected to be 30.19 mb/d in the first quarter, 29.71 mb/d in the second, 29.88 mb/d in the third and 31.08 mb/d in the fourth. The demand of OPEC crude in the first quarter 2009 is estimated to show a strong decline of around 2.3 mb/d compared to the same period this year.


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