Balance of Supply and Demand - Feb 09

Source: OPEC_RP090213 2/13/2009, Location: Europe

Estimate for 2008
Demand for OPEC crude is estimated to average 30.9 mb/d, indicating a decline of 440 tb/d. This represents a slight revision from last month due to a downward revision in non-OPEC supply. On a quarterly basis, demand for OPEC crude is estimated at 31.7 mb/d 30.4 mb/d 30.8 mb/d and 30.8 mb/d respectively.

Forecast for 2009
Demand for OPEC crude has been revised down by 0.2 mb/d to reflect lower than expected growth in world oil demand. Required OPEC crude in now forecast at 29.2 mb/d, a decline of 1.7 mb/d from the estimated 2008 figure. In quarterly terms, demand for OPEC crude is now expected at 29.7 mb/d, 28.7mb/d, 28.8 mb/d and 29.6 mb/d respectively. Demand for OPEC crude in the first three quarters is estimated to show a strong decline of around 2.0 mb/d compared to the same period last year while the fourth quarter is expected to decline by around 1.2 mb/d.


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