Balance of Supply and Demand - Aug 09

Source: OPEC_RP090813 8/11/2009, Location: Europe

Estimate for 2009
The demand for OPEC crude has been revised down slightly to currently stand at 28.4 mb/d, representing a strong contraction of 2.3 mb/d from the previous year. On a quarterly basis, the demand for OPEC crude is estimated at 28.3 mb/d, 28.0 mb/d, 28.6 mb/d and 28.9 mb/d respectively. The demand for OPEC crude in the first half of the year is estimated to have fallen by a substantial 2.9 mb/d compared to the same period last year, although this decline is expected to narrow in the fourth quarter to a loss of 1.4 mb/d.

Forecast for 2010
Demand for OPEC crude in 2010 is forecast to average 28.0 mb/d. This represents a drop of 0.5 mb/d from the current year and the third consecutive annual decline. As the decline is much smaller than in the previous year, the figure can be seen as a sign of recovery. On a quarterly basis, the demand for OPEC crude is expected at 27.8 mb/d, 27.2 mb/d, 28.3 mb/d and 28.6 mb/d respectively.


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