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Balance of Supply and Demand - Oct 09

Source: OPEC_RP091012 10/13/2009, Location: Europe

Estimate for 2009
Demand for OPEC crude has been revised up by around 100,000 b/d to currently stand at 28.6 mb/d, reflecting mainly the upward revision in the second half of the year. However, this still represents a decline of 2.3 mb/d from the previous year. The first half experienced negative growth of around 3.0 mb/d compared to the same period last year, while the decline is seen narrowing in the second half to show a loss of about 1.1 mb/d in the fourth quarter.

Forecast for 2010 Demand for crude in 2010 is forecast to average 28.4 mb/d, representing an upward adjustment of 0.3 mb/d from the previous assessment. This revision came of the back of the upward revision of demand as non-OPEC supply remained broadly unchanged. Demand for OPEC crude growth in 2010 is currently projected at minus 0.2 mb/d, with the first half of the year still showing a decline of around 0.5 mb/d. The second half is expected to return to positive growth of about 100,000 b/d, providing a sign of recovery.

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